Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 4:23 AM   Moonset 6:06 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  

FXUS61 KILN 061720 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 120 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance moving through a warm, humid airmass will offer showers and a few thunderstorms during the day today. For Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple systems lifting northeast from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley will provide additional showers and storms. A cold front will bring cooler and drier conditions Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A well-defined MCV moving NE through WC KY this morning is providing a focus for arcing bands of SHRA, with ISO TSRA, about its center. This MCV, notable on both regional satellite and radar imagery, will migrate to near KCVG around 00z. The best potential for redevelopment of convection this afternoon/evening is likely to occur on the ern/srn flanks of this feature, mainly in far SE IN, N KY, and far srn OH by late in the day.

Due to the LL flow fields around the MCV (and the relatively shallow nature of the convection), storm motion/evolution is likely to become somewhat erratic late afternoon, especially very close to the MCV itself. Steering- layer flow should be fairly weak, which when combined with PWATs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches and some narrow/weak instby, will once again lend itself to at least /some/ isolated heavy rain/flooding threat. The focus for this potential should be in the aforementioned areas, potentially as far N as a line from Ripley Co IN to Pike Co OH, with the primary area of concern just south of this line. While most areas will receive less than an inch (with very little/none near/N of I-70), some isolated 1-2 inches will be possible in N KY/far srn OH in the most persistent/slowest- moving activity. Confidence is not quite high enough to hoist a Flash Flood Watch at this juncture, but will maintain mention in the HWO.

With quite a bit of cloud cover and SHRA/TSRA activity about the region today, forecast highs will generally be in the lower/mid 70s, with sfc DPs nudging back into the mid 60s for most spots.
SHRA/TSRA activity should become more ISO in coverage toward the evening/beyond, but may not shut off completely tonight as the weakly-convergent axis continues to crawl to the N.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
After an overall lull in the precipitation tonight, another shortwave will lift into the Ohio Valley Tuesday. With a 50-70 knot H5 speed max accompanying the disturbance, organized convection and a severe thunderstorm threat remains possible...
particularly during peak heating hours. Highs will lift into the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Thunderstorm activity will linger into Tuesday evening, but we should see a decreasing trend in coverage and intensity through the night as we lose some of the instability and the frontal boundary moves through.

Another mid level short wave will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night within a sharpening upper level trough. As it does, a strengthening surface low will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon and across the Upper Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Ahead of the low, strengthening low and mid level flow will lead to good moisture advection up into our region late Wednesday into Wednesday night. As we destabilize through Wednesday afternoon/evening, showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread into our southwestern areas late Wednesday afternoon and overspread the rest of the area heading into Wednesday night. With good low level and deep layer shear developing, damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will all be possible. In addition, PWs will climb into the 1.5 to 2 inch range Wednesday night, so heavy rainfall and some flooding concerns will also be possible.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will taper off later Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cold front moves east across the area. Cooler air will begin to advect into the region behind the front on Thursday with afternoon highs ranging from the low 70s northwest to the upper 70s southeast. The upper level trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through the end of the week and into the weekend. This will be accompanied by a cooler airmass along with some chances for diurnally enhanced showers and a few thunderstorms. Daytime highs will be mostly in the 60s Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Bands of ISO/SCT SHRA, with some embedded TSRA, continue to pinwheel around an MCV drifting to the NE through far nrn KY.
The best coverage of activity should focus just S/E of this feature, meaning that KCVG/KLUK will likely see a bit more coverage than will sites further to the NE. So have a TEMPO for KCVG/KLUK through the afternoon, with just VC elsewhere.
Activity should decrease in coverage by/past 00z, leaving the area mainly dry for the overnight.

There continue to be some patchy MVFR (and even IFR) CIGs lingering about central OH early this afternoon, but most CIGs have returned to VFR. However, CIGs will once again go back MVFR, and eventually IFR, by/past 06z, with some LIFR CIGs not out of the realm of possibility. Some MVFR VSBYs may also accompany the saturating LL environment tonight into Tuesday morning. CIGs will go from IFR/LIFR back to MVFR by 15z, and eventually VFR toward/beyond 18z Tuesday.

Light easterly flow around 5-7kts will go light/VRB/calm tonight before going more southerly and increasing to around 10-15kts past 15z Tuesday. A band of SHRA/TSRA should approach from the W toward 18z Tuesday, likely impacting KCVG/KLUK/KDAY late morning/early afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening and then again late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
MVFR/IFR CIGs are possible Wednesday night into early Thursday and again on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop




Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Wilmington, OH,