Wednesday, November14, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Amanda, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:16PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:31 PM EST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:02PMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amanda, OH
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location: 39.6, -82.66     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 142030
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
330 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

High pressure over the great lakes will continue moving to the
east, as low pressure moves into the area from the mississippi
valley. This will bring a mix of wintry precipitation tonight
and tomorrow. Dry weather will return on Friday as high pressure
becomes centered to the south.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
A very dry area of surface high pressure currently extends from
the middle mississippi valley eastward into the ohio valley and
southern great lakes. This high is forecast to move northeast
into the great lakes as the day progresses. A very compact area
of mid-level low pressure is currently located just east of
texarkana, and its circulation shows up very nicely on goes-e
water vapor and visible satellite imagery. This low is expected
to move ene today, before it eventually tracks east across
kentucky on Thursday. Ahead of the mid-level low, surface low
pressure is developing over the deep south, and it will move
northeast along the western edge of the appalachians heading
into tomorrow.

Ahead of all of this, the iln CWA is currently in a regime of
southwest flow aloft, with a shield of mid and high clouds well
entrenched over the area. Winds remain northeasterly to
easterly at the surface, however, reinforcing the dry air in the
boundary layer (tds are currently in the upper teens).

Temperatures have responded very slowly this afternoon, and do
not appear to be on track to reach previously forecasted highs.

This will provide a starting point generally in the lower 30s
going into a potential icing scenario tonight, which will be
discussed in the short term forecast discussion below. Until the
precipitation starts, the trend this evening should be for
temperatures to slightly decrease in the 00z-06z time frame.

This should bring the entire iln CWA below freezing by 06z.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Very early on Thursday morning, the compact mid-level low will
be moving northeast into the lower ohio valley, with weak
surface low pressure developing just ahead of it in central
tennessee and kentucky. All ingredients are coming together for
the area ahead of these features to be the location for the
heaviest precipitation to develop -- deep-layer moisture,
positive vorticity advection, and upper divergence. Due to the
way the low center is tilted westward with height, there will be
a significant intrusion of warmer air aloft advecting into the
iln CWA on southerly flow, while cool conditions remain in place
on easterly flow at the surface. This presents the main hazard
highlighted by the winter weather advisory -- a period of
freezing rain is expected cwa-wide, with the potential for
around a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Working toward
this threat are several factors. One is an impressively deep
warm layer aloft, which will melt hydrometeors efficiently
during the overnight hours and into Thursday morning. Another
factor is that the strength of the forcing will mean that
precipitation will be heavy enough to accumulate -- this will
not just be a trace event. The cold starting point at the
surface (exacerbated by the under-performing temperatures this
Wednesday afternoon) also leads credence to the idea that
surface conditions will be cold enough for a period of several
hours of ice accumulations. It should be noted that despite
temperature performance today (Wednesday), models have been
trending warmer with this upcoming system -- which is why snow
was largely removed from the forecast equation, favoring more
of a fzra-to-ra scenario from south to north. Models also
indicate a shift from easterly to southeasterly flow during the
morning, warming conditions above freezing pretty quickly --
maybe too quickly, given the dry antecedent conditions and lack
of any strong warm advection flow. Nonetheless, temperatures
are expected to become warm enough to change fzra to ra during
the 12z to 16z time frame from south to north across the
forecast area. This is one part of the forecast that is more
moderate-confidence than high-confidence, and if temperatures
warm slower, then ice accumulations could be more than currently
anticipated. Finally, as precipitation onset occurs and the warm
layer is just starting to get into the area, some sleet may also
mix in tonight. Not expecting any accumulations out of this. As
for snow, any accumulations of up to an inch will be limited to
the northwest corner of the cwa. To note -- this forecast
used a nam GFS rap consensus as guidance, straying from the
colder canadian model solution.

Though precipitation may become lighter during the day, some
renewed development is expected just ahead of the mid-level low
center -- likely a mix of rain and snow, and changing to snow
once as temperatures fall during the evening. Some model
soundings suggested that moisture may become too shallow to
support cloud ice (i.E. Freezing drizzle rather than snow) but
this is enough of a question mark that it does not seem wise to
further complicate the forecast with this possibility.

A few models suggested that MAX temps on Thursday afternoon
could get into the mid 40s in the southeastern CWA -- this does
not seem particularly reasonable with precipitation and clouds
in a cool surface pattern. MAX temps will be forecast in the mid
30s to around 40, with min temps cooling into the upper 20s to
lower 30s by early Friday morning.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
The extended period begins with the region on the backside of
the exiting system which is near nyc at 12z Friday. A fast
moving h5 low will travel through the great lakes on Friday.

This could bring some isolated pcpn into the northern counties
on Friday. For now, left the forecast dry. Highs on will
continue to be below normal, ranging from the upper 30s to mid
40s. The high will keep Saturday dry with highs in the lower to
mid 40s.

Late Saturday night into Sunday night, a cold front will push
into the region, bringing a chance of snow and rain showers.

There is a little spread in the forecast timing and qpf, but it
looks like the best chance of any pcpn may be Sunday night.

Northwest flow develops aloft, with surface high building over
the eastern u.S. The GFS does try to drop a S W into the region
Tuesday night, bringing some light pcpn, but this is not
supported by the other models at this time. Kept next week dry
for now. After a cool start with highs Monday only reaching the
mid 30s to lower 40s, there will be a gradual warm up, with
highs by Wednesday reaching the 40s.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr conditions are expected through the afternoon and into the
evening, with northeast winds and increasing high and mid level
clouds. Precipitation onset is expected during the evening or
early overnight hours, and there is high confidence in a wintry
mix of precipitation types. The main precipitation type through
the overnight hours will be freezing rain, with a brief period
of sleet possible near the onset of precipitation. Conditions
should remainVFR even after precipitation begins overnight,
with a deterioration to MVFR and then ifr during the early
morning hours. There is high confidence in ifr ceilings, and
moderate confidence in MVFR to possibly briefly ifr

Freezing rain will change to rain during the morning hours, but
MVFR ifr conditions will continue through the day, even as
precipitation eventually becomes very light. Winds will be out
of the east during the morning, but will eventually begin a
clockwise shift during the afternoon.

Outlook... MVFR ifr ceilings and visibilities will continue
through Thursday night. MVFR ceilings may continue into Friday.

MVFR conditions are possible again on Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for ohz026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-

Ky... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for kyz089>100.

In... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to noon est
Thursday for inz050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Hatzos
short term... Hatzos
long term... Sites
aviation... Hatzos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Fairfield County Airport, OH10 mi39 minNE 710.00 miFair31°F18°F59%1033.8 hPa
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH21 mi37 minENE 710.00 miFair31°F16°F55%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from LHQ (wind in knots)
1 day agoE5E3CalmNE3CalmN5NW4CalmCalmCalmNW5N5N4NW4NW4NW4NW4NW6NW8NW9NW8NW12N10NW10
2 days agoSW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmSW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.