Wednesday, October18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach Haven, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:13PM Wednesday October 18, 2017 7:37 PM EDT (23:37 UTC) Moonrise 5:48AMMoonset 6:01PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 629 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ400 629 Pm Edt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the rest of the week into the weekend. A weak and dry frontal boundary may move through the area Thursday night. A more substantial cold front and low pressure moving along it, will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach Haven, NJ
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location: 39.61, -74.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 182241
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
641 pm edt Wed oct 18 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains in control of the weather for much of the
rest of the week into the weekend. A dry frontal boundary may
move into the area Thursday into Friday. A front and low pressure
moving along it will bring unsettled conditions for later Monday
into Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
630 pm estf: minor changes to the evening temps and dewpoints,
otrw no changes.

High pressure remains over the mid-atlantic region. However, this
high will undergo gradual weakening tonight as an upstream shortwave
trough approaches from the ohio valley.

This upper shortwave trough will be associated with increasing high
clouds responsible prior to its arrival. Do not anticipate these
clouds to have a significant impact on radiational cooling given the
high base of the cirrus. Accordingly, temperatures should drop
rather quickly this evening once the boundary layer decouples and
winds become calm. Compared to recent nights, higher dewpoints
tonight will (1) raise the floor for how low temperatures can bottom
out, (2) inhibit frost formation and (3) increase the risk for
radiational fog. At this point, am skeptical to think fog will be
much more than patchy in coverage and shallow in depth (mainly
ground fog). Forecast lows range from the upper 30s lower 40s in the
sheltered valleys of NE pa NW nj and the nj pine barrens to the
lower 50s for the urban i-95 cities and along the coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
High pressure sinks southward toward the southeast u.S. On Thursday.

Modest pressure (height) falls at the surface (aloft) occurs across
the northern mid-atlantic region as a weak upper shortwave trough
and surface cold front progress eastward.

The aforementioned cold front will trail the upper trough enough to
remain upstream of the forecast area through the period. The setup
will allow us to remain situated in the pre-frontal warm sector and
for this warming trend to continue into tomorrow. Sided closer to
the warmer mav guidance for temperatures, yielding forecast highs in
the lower to middle 70s (except cooler in the higher elevations of
ne pa-nw nj).

Filtered sunshine with high clouds during the morning will give way
to sunny skies by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SW winds 5-10 mph in the
morning are forecast to increase to 10-15 mph by afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night thru Monday... High pressure at the surface and
aloft will be in control of the weather with fair weather
expected. Temperatures generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

Monday night thru Wednesday... A pattern change with a sharp h5
trough moving into the ERN part of the country. Low pressure
and a slow moving front associated with the upper trough will
affect the area with occasional rains. Locally heavy rains are
possible with an upper trough beginning to take a negative tilt
as it crosses the area. The 12z na models are showing qpf
totals generally in the 1 to 3 inch range across the area for
the period mon_wed. The higher totals are across the wrn
counties. Much colder temperatures will be ushered in behind
the system with below normal temperatures for the middle part of
next week.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

GenerallyVFR through Thursday. However, patchy ground fog may
develop at the fog-prone, rural TAF sites between 05z-11z
Thursday which could result in a brief period of MVFR visibility.

Confidence in fog development was too low to mention in 18z
tafs except at miv.

Light southwest winds tonight, increasing too 8-15 kt in the
afternoon.

Outlook...

thu night thru Monday...VFR expected thru the period.

Marine
S-sw winds 5-10 kt will continue tonight and Thursday morning,
then increase 10-15 kt across the coastal atlantic waters during
the afternoon. Wind field may become locally enhanced to 15-20
kt off the coast of ocean and monmouth counties via ambrose jet
late in the day. Held off on a SCA at this juncture since poor
mixing profiles should inhibit higher winds aloft to reach the
surface. Accordingly, capped gusts below 25 kt.

Seas will generally be around 3 ft in the coastal waters and 2 ft or
less in the delaware bay... Mostly a SE swell of 9 or 10 seconds.

Outlook...

thu night... Near SCA winds across the NRN nj coastal waters thu
evening, but not confid enough for a flag attm. Fair.

Friday thru Sunday... Sub- SCA conditions thru the period with
fair weather.

Climate
**top 5 warmest october on record for phl and abe appears likely
and its virtually certain a top 10 warmest october for all of
our forecast area**
todays MAX min plus the mount holly 330 pm fcst for the next 7
days, adding on day8-11 from ftprha GFS 2m MAX min temps and
then normal the last 3 days of the month results in the
following.

Phl 63.5 degrees or 6 degrees above the october 30 year avg of
57.5. This again pegs phl for a tie as #2 warmest october on
record.

1. 64.5 2007
2. 63.5 1971 (2017?)
3. 62.7 1947
to drop out of the top 10 warmest the phl avg would have to lower
to 61.2 degrees (a 2.4 degree drop from the current projection).

Based on the 12z 18 ensembles both GEFS naefs and ecefs... This
will not happen unless todays ensembles completely miss the last
3 days of the month. So while a record is probably out of reach
top 5 is likely.

Abe 59.5 or 7 degrees above the 30 year avg of 52.5. This also
ties for #2.

1. 60.8 2007
2. 59.5 1984 and possibly 2017?
3. 59.3 1947
4. 58.8 1971
for allentown to drop out of the top 10, the projected avg
would have to lower to 57.2 or a drop of 2.3 degrees from the
current projection. Again, thats highly unlikely unless something
very unusual and not currently ensembled occurs the last 3 days
of the month.

It should be pointed out that the d8-14 fcst from the climate
prediction center (cpc) .. Is for above normal temperatures for
the last week of the month. We are on the edge of the transition
to cold that will be quite noticeable in the nations midsection
next week. Uphill (southwest flow at 500mb and the trough axis
constantly appalachians or west) makes it difficult for cold
air to cross the mountains into our area.

Now a moment to share some information from a new tool recently
available to us...

the last two years in phl 10 15-10 17 17 is the warmest in the
period of record... Averaging 3 degrees above normal.

Ditto allentown,,averaging 3.7 degrees above normal!
ditto ilg... Averaging 2.5 above normal.

We will look at all of this again either Saturday or Sunday
morning.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Drag klein 640
short term... Klein
long term... O'hara
aviation... Drag klein o'hara 640
marine... Drag klein o'hara 640
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 14 mi67 min SSW 1 60°F 1026 hPa49°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 21 mi49 min 65°F 65°F1026.4 hPa
44091 26 mi37 min 66°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi49 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 61°F 65°F1025.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi61 min SSW 4.1 G 7 66°F 66°F1025 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi41 minN 010.00 mi55°F51°F87%1026.7 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ22 mi43 minSSW 410.00 miFair60°F48°F67%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW4W3W4SW3W6W7W6SW6NW5W3SW5SW8SW5S4
1 day agoN6NW3N6N6N5N6N5NW6N6N7N8N7N8N9N10N8N9N8N4N3CalmCalmS6S3
2 days agoS6S8S10S11SW8SW10SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Beach Haven Crest, New Jersey
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Beach Haven Crest
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Wed -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:34 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:34 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:50 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.30.90.50.1-0.100.51.21.82.22.221.61.10.70.3-0-00.411.622.22

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:16 AM EDT     -2.99 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:40 AM EDT     2.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:36 PM EDT     -2.92 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     2.52 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.3-3-2.7-1.7-0.21.32.32.521.10.1-0.9-1.9-2.7-2.8-2.1-0.70.82.12.52.21.50.5-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.