Wednesday, August16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach Haven, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:52PM Wednesday August 16, 2017 11:24 AM EDT (15:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:52AMMoonset 3:25PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 910 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas 4 to 7 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft early this afternoon. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 13 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 910 Am Edt Wed Aug 16 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will build across the region today before moving offshore on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward towards the area late Thursday and then moves through the area on Friday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday, pushing through the region Friday night through Saturday. High pressure returns for Sunday through Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach Haven, NJ
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location: 39.61, -74.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161317
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
917 am edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region today before moving
offshore on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward towards the
area late Thursday and then moves through the area on Friday. A cold
front will approach from the west on Friday, pushing through the
region Friday night through Saturday. High pressure returns for
Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure builds in from the west today. Morning sunshine
will give way to diurnally driven afternoon scattered to broken
clouds.

Light northwest wind trends west during the afternoon with sea
breezes along the coast.

With a weak wind shift (drier dewpoints) developing across our
area very late this afternoon near or north of i78... Its not
impossible to see a sprinkle in parts of E central or SE pa and
central or S nj toward sunset. Hrrrx and nssl WRF have it.

Blended pops and review of ki suggest not forecasting a sprinkle
in nj or de but instead leave it for the southern part of de.

Forecast basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z 16 GFS nam mos
guidance.

Max temps a couple of degrees above normal.

High risk for dangerous rc formation continues per the 13
second 4-5 ft SE swell from gert, washing ashore.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday
Again, its not impossible to see isolated sprinkles vcnty
philly to acy at 00z down into S de but not lasting long.

Otherwise becoming mostly clear.

The wind shift progresses southward to near phl by 12z Thursday.

Light north-northeast wind to its north and and light south to
southwest to its south.

Cooler and much more comfortable i78 northward, though short
lived.

Patchy fog probably forms toward dawn Thursday, but not nearly
to the extent we see it this morning and not expecting a dense
fog advy situation.

Forecast basis was a 50 50 blend of the 00z 16 GFS nam mos
guidance.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
High pressure will start to slide offshore on Thursday with a warm
front developing across virginia. The warm front will push northward
on Thursday and will start to move into our area late Thursday,
pushing through the region on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will
start to develop just north of and along the warm front on Thursday
afternoon and evening and then will overspread the region Thursday
night and Friday as a warmer and moister airmass moves into the mid-
atlantic.

A cold front will approach the region from the west on Friday,
crossing the region late Friday through Saturday. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms are expected as the front moves through
our area. Good shear and forcing across the area means some
storms may be strong, possibly severe, and with pwats running
high again, heavy rain will also be a threat. SPC has a marginal
risk for severe storms just to our west at this time.

Some cooler air should arrive behind the front but it isn't all
that cool or dry so little relief is expected. A shortwave will
cross through the region on Saturday keeping the chance for
showers and thunderstorms throughout Saturday evening. As the
wave pushes to the east, the showers thunderstorms will decrease
in coverage and drier air will start to move in.

High pressure will build in for Sunday and a period of relatively
nice weather should continue for the start of the week with the high
shifting offshore on Monday. Another frontal system will approach
the region for Tuesday Wednesday with another chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

Aviation 13z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Remaining ifr MVFR stratus fog dissipates by 14z. ThenVFR sct-
bkn clouds AOA 4000 ft develop midday with a west-northwest
wind trending west to southwest late in the afternoon except sea
breezes developing vcnty kacy. Isolated light showers possible
se pa to S nj after 21z. I think the NAM tsec is best for fcstg
low lvl rh changes. Narre has completely missed the dense fog in
our area, yet unexpectedly to me has a stratus deck lingering
to around 15z.

Tonight... After any isolated light showers vcnty kilg kphl kacy
southward end by 01z, aVFR night with a wind shift progressing
southward to near kphl by 12z thu. Winds turn light north-northeast
north of the boundary and are light south to southwest to its
south.

Patchy ifr fog stratus may form in the nj and DELMARVA countryside
between 07z-10z 17, but not nearly to the extent of what we see saw
this morning.

Outlook:
Thursday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Sub-vfr conditions in
afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms. Fog possible early
Thursday morning and again late Thursday night.

Friday... Fog possible early morning. Sub-vfr conditions in showers
and thunderstorms.

Saturday... MVFR conditions expected scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Improving conditions late.

Sunday... MainlyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
Seas are around 5 feet at the buoys off the nj de coast as
hurricane gert heads enewd well offshore toward the north
central atlc. Longer period swell from gert is reaching the
buoys (generally 12-13 seconds) and will continue this morning
then easing slowly this afternoon and evening. Small craft
advisory for seas continues.

Light northwest flow this morning becomes southeast to south
sea breezes during this afternoon. A wind shift back to
northerly should develop for the nj coastal waters late
Wednesday night.

Some fog may develop near the coast and near delaware bay early
today, with visibility restrictions possible. However, this fog
should dissipate rapidly after sunrise with a nice day expected,
save for the aforementioned higher seas.

Outlook...

Thursday thru Sunday... Sub-small craft advisory conditions
expected on the area waters through Sunday. Some gusts around
20-25 knots are possible Friday afternoon and evening. Showers
and thunderstorms possible late Thursday through Saturday, with
locally higher seas and winds.

Rip currents...

a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
in effect today. Long period swells from hurricane gert will
continue to impact the coasts of delaware and new jersey.

Swim only in the presence of lifeguards where safety prevails
and if beaches are closed... Respect the decisions of the local
officials. Do we need a reminder? There have been numerous
drowning fatalities this year along the nj coast, and most of
those at unguarded beaches.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for njz014-
024>026.

De... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 2 pm edt this
afternoon for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Drag mps
short term... Drag
long term... Meola
aviation... Drag meola
marine... Drag meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 14 mi55 min NW 2.9 78°F 1015 hPa72°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 21 mi55 min 79°F 75°F1015.4 hPa
44091 26 mi55 min 76°F5 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi55 min NNW 6 G 7 78°F 74°F1015.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi55 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1 78°F 76°F1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi29 minVar 510.00 miFair79°F69°F72%1016.1 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ22 mi31 minNNW 710.00 miA Few Clouds82°F71°F69%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------SE5E5SE3E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4NW6NW7NW8N7
1 day agoSE5SE8S6SE6S6SE7S53SE4S4CalmCalmSE4S5S5CalmN4CalmE3CalmCalmE4E4E5
2 days agoNW5NW4NW7NW8NW6NW7NW7NW5NW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Beach Haven Crest, New Jersey
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Beach Haven Crest
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Wed -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:16 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:38 PM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.81.31.71.81.81.51.10.80.50.30.10.20.61.31.82.12.221.71.30.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:31 AM EDT     2.25 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:32 AM EDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:50 PM EDT     2.88 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:21 PM EDT     -2.83 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.11.32.12.11.40.4-0.5-1.3-1.9-2.3-2.3-1.5-0.11.42.52.92.31.30.2-0.8-1.6-2.3-2.8-2.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.