Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Beach Haven, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:42PM Friday April 20, 2018 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 930 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Overnight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the N with a dominant period of 5 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the ne with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Sun night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Wed..E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ400 930 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure builds over our area tonight, remains in place through the weekend, then shifts offshore Monday. Low pressure moves east across the gulf coast states Sunday and Monday, then tracks up the mid-atlantic coast later Tuesday through late Wednesday. High pressure then builds well to our west and south later Thursday and Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Beach Haven, NJ
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location: 39.61, -74.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 210113
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
913 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds over our area later tonight and remains in
place through the weekend, then shifts offshore on Monday. Low
pressure moves east across the gulf coast states Sunday and Monday,
then tracks up the mid-atlantic coast later Tuesday through late
Wednesday. High pressure then builds well to our west and south
later Thursday and Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Low pressure is positioned near the canadian maritimes this
evening while high pressure was centered over the midwest u.S.

The pressure gradient resulted in a breezy day earlier, but now
the gusts have subsided for the most part with the loss of
daytime mixing. The sustained wind speeds show a more gradual
decrease overnight.

Overall, not much change from earlier. The winds, and how fast
they diminish will be an important part of the forecast for
tonight and a key link to the frost freeze potential. The
current thinking is winds should become light late tonight with
high pressure building in from the west. Once this happens,
temperatures will drop rather quickly overnight, bottoming out
in the lower to mid 30s before daybreak (except upper 30s in the
cities and along the coast). A freeze warning was issued for
cecil county, md and for berks, western montgomery and western
chester counties in pa with lows expected to fall in the 30-32f
range and the growing season declared active. A frost advisory
was issued for northeastern md, de, the northern and western
suburbs of philadelphia and central and southern nj where (1)
the growing season is already underway, (2) temperatures are
forecast to dip into the mid 30s and (3) calm winds will provide
favorable conditions for frost formation. High clouds will
start to stream in from the west late but should not have much
of an impact on radiational cooling.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
High pressure moves overhead tomorrow. A jet streak at the base of
the upper low to our northeast will be associated with mid and high
clouds over the region. There is some uncertainty regarding the
extent of the cloud cover tomorrow, but do think there will be
enough filtered sunshine or breaks in the clouds to allow for
temperatures to reach their full mixing potential during the
afternoon. Forecast highs generally range from 55-60f with slightly
cooler spots in the southern poconos and warmer spots in
philadelphia and toward southern delaware. NW winds 4-8 mph in the
morning, increasing to 8-12 mph in the afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Summary... Turning warmer, however a coastal low looks to affect our
weather Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough across the northeast is
forecast to shift offshore later in the weekend. As this occurs, a
ridge slides eastward from the great lakes driving surface high
pressure over our area. However, strong energy underneath this ridge
moves across the gulf coast states over the weekend into early next
week with surface low pressure associated with it. Meanwhile,
northern stream short wave over the great lakes region is forecast
to begin phasing with the southern stream closed low over the
southeast u.S. The model spread increases during this time frame due
to the timing of the phasing and the speed of the resulting surface
low near the east coast. The surface low is forecast to basically
slide northward by the mid-atlantic coast during mid-week before
shifting to our northeast to start Thursday. An upper-level trough
looks to then settle into the east for the end of next week while
weak surface high pressure slides to our south. This trough may
eventually lead to another coastal low development with time.

For Saturday night through Monday... Surface high pressure builds
over the region as an upper-level ridge slides eastward. The surface
high though will shift offshore Monday as low pressure tracks across
the southeastern u.S. The presence of surface high pressure over the
area will result in subsidence and a lack of clouds overall with
less wind, with the airmass modifying through the weekend. This
leads to each afternoon getting warmer. The exception will be the
coastal locales as light winds Sunday and Monday especially should
result in a sea breeze each afternoon and early evening. Low
temperatures though will still be chilly due to good radiational
cooling conditions, with some places potentially having frost or
freeze conditions especially Saturday night.

For Tuesday through Thursday... While a coastal low is anticipated to
affect our weather, the details are less certain. This is due to the
timing of phasing energy toward the east coast, with a closed low
with the southern stream and a short wave arriving from the great
lakes region within the northern stream. The southern stream energy
will drive surface low pressure off the southeast u.S. Coast Tuesday
morning, then energy interaction between the northern and southern
streams will help turn the low northward by later Tuesday and
continue through Wednesday. The latest thinking is to bring the low
just off of our coast later Wednesday then into new england Thursday
morning. The combination of onshore flow (increasing moisture) and
increasing synoptic ascent will bring widespread rain mainly
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of the rain could be heavy at
times, however the system may be moving quick enough where the
window of opportunity for heavy rain is shortened.

A period of stronger onshore flow could result in some coastal
flooding, although we are between the new full moon cycles. There is
still plenty of time to iron out the details, however given enough
agreement for widespread rain for a time we continued with likely to
low-end categorical pops for portions of this time frame. Initial
overunning rain should develop later Tuesday, with rain shifting
north Wednesday and then ending at night or early Thursday as low
pressure shifts to our northeast.

For Friday... An amplified upper-level trough may settle into the
east with some weak surface features moving through. Depending on
the evolution aloft, the airmass looks mild though and therefore
some showers cannot be ruled out if there is enough instability
during the day. As of now, we followed the wpc guidance rather
closely.

Aviation 01z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. High clouds move in toward early morning with
cigs at or above 15 kft agl. NW winds with sustained speeds
decreasing more gradually from 8-12 kt early this evening to
3-6 kt overnight.

Saturday...VFR with mid to high clouds (cigs above 10 kft agl).

Light NW winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming mostly
light and variable.

Sunday...VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming south to southwest
around 5 knots (becoming southeast in the afternoon at acy, miv and
possibly ilg).

Monday...VFR. East to southeast winds around 5 knots.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with increasing and gradually lower clouds,
then some light rain should develop at night. East-southeast winds
around 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday... MVFR ifr conditions probable with a period of rain. A
period of gusty east to southeast winds possible, then lighter and
turning west to northwest at night. Low confidence with the
details.

Marine
Tonight... Nw winds will continue to be in the 10-20 kt range
tonight. Short-period, wind-driven nwly swells will be in the
3-4 ft range in our coastal waters and 2 ft or less in the
delaware bay.

Saturday... Nw winds 10-15 kt in the morning will become
light variable toward midday and then S by mid afternoon in
association with the development of a sea-breeze near the
coast. Mesoscale models show the S winds strengthening to near
15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late in the day in the coastal waters
of nj.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday... .The conditions are expected to be
below small craft advisory criteria is over our area.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions looking
likely. Low pressure is forecast to move up the east coast Tuesday
night through late Wednesday with onshore flow in advance of it.

Winds and seas therefore increase, with wind gusts anticipated as
of now to remain below gale force.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for paz102-104-
106.

Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for paz060-101-
103.

Nj... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for njz012-013-
015>022-027.

De... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for dez001>003.

Md... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for mdz012-015-
020.

Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for mdz008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Klein po
short term... Klein
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse klein po
marine... Gorse klein po


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 14 mi73 min NW 4.1 43°F 1028 hPa26°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 21 mi43 min 45°F 48°F1028.6 hPa (+2.8)
44091 26 mi73 min 44°F4 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 46 mi43 min NNE 4.1 G 8 43°F 46°F1029.2 hPa (+2.3)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 48 mi67 min N 5.1 G 8 44°F 46°F1028.4 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NW10
G15
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G12
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S6
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NE5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi47 minN 610.00 miFair38°F24°F57%1029.1 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ22 mi49 minNNW 810.00 miFair42°F25°F51%1028.2 hPa

Wind History from ACY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W9W10W6W5NW7NW8W9NW12NW17
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NW11N8N11N10NW8
1 day agoS6SE8SE5E6NE7E6N10NW15NE12E13NE7CalmW6W7NW10NW10NW18
G28
NW20
G27
NW10NW18
G28
W16
G23
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2 days agoW13
G25
NW11
G19
W8
G18
W6W6SW5W6W5W12W13
G20
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S8S6S6S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for Beach Haven Crest, New Jersey
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Beach Haven Crest
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Fri -- 01:29 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:15 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.22.221.61.20.70.30-0.10.20.71.31.71.91.81.61.20.80.40.20.10.30.8

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:14 AM EDT     -3.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:01 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:31 AM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:27 PM EDT     -2.47 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:56 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:44 PM EDT     2.99 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.30-1.1-2-2.6-3-2.7-1.6-01.42.42.41.60.6-0.5-1.4-2-2.4-2.4-1.40.11.72.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.