Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Halfway, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:34 PM EDT (19:34 UTC) Moonrise 12:20PMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 133 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 133 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will pass through the waters today and a cold front will approach from the northwest tonight before passing through Wednesday. High pressure will build overhead Thursday through Friday before moving offshore during the weekend. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Halfway, MD
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location: 39.62, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 221930
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
330 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front has lifted through the area this afternoon and a
cold front will approach from the northwest tonight before
passing through Wednesday morning. In the wake of the frontal
passage, high pressure will build over the area through Thursday
before migrating over the western atlantic Friday and Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Before a brief break in the showers earlier today, showers have
once again developed west of the blue ridge, with thunderstorms
across the southern shenandoah valley and central blue ridge.

Visible satellite imagery shows clouds clearing ahead of this
activity which is helping destabilize the atmosphere as
expected. Dewpoints are sultry in the mid to upper 60s with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with lower 80s in our
southern zones.

A nose of MLCAPE on the order of 1000-1500 j kg stretches across
central virginia northward in to northern virginia, just to the
west southwest of the district. Couple this with steepening
low-level lapse rates and shear values approaching 30 knots,
potential for severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts
exists this afternoon. As such, SPC has put portions of northern
and central virginia, portions of central and southern maryland,
and the district of columbia in a severe thunderstorm watch.

These thunderstorms will also be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, with some hi-res guidance indicating 1-2 in hr rates.

However, given the speed at which they'll be moving (~25kts),
this should help keep the flash flooding threat somewhat
limited but still possible given the very moist soils from
recent rains.

Convection will wane this evening and a cold front will
approach from the northwest tonight and cross the area towards
morning. This could trigger some additional showers or perhaps a
thunderstorm, but expect coverage will be mostly isolated in
nature due to the nocturnal passage and meager support aloft.

Lows will hold in the lower to middle 60s for all.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night
A weak cold front will sweep through the area overnight and
early on Wednesday, ushering in a northwest flow in its wake,
bringing drier air to the region. Showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm may accompany the frontal passage, but coverage
will likely be limited to isolated to scattered at best. High
pressure will build overhead for Wednesday night through
Thursday night, bringing dry conditions along with lower
humidity. Expect highs near 80 degrees and lows near 60 degrees
each day and night.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
A high pressure system will be in place over the region early
on Friday. The high will shift eastward off the atlantic coast
Friday afternoon. A south to southwesterly flow will be in place
leading to warm and moist air being advected into the region.

Temperatures will rise up into the low to mid 80s. National
blend guidance currently has the area seeing dewpoints in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday into Sunday, the high pressure will remain centered over
the atlantic ocean near bermuda. A strong southerly flow will
continue to be in place advecting warm and moist temperatures into
the region. 850 and 700mb flows will be out of the south to
southwest and a tropical system looks to form in the gulf region.

Gfs 12z and euro are hinting at tropical moisture being transported
northward into our region again. The higher temperatures coupled
with rising dew points and the influx of tropical moisture will make
the environment conducive for thunderstorm development Saturday and
Sunday. Both GFS and euro have precipitation starting later in the
day on Saturday and continuing chances for precip into Sunday.

Temperatures will rise up into the upper 80s with some areas seeing
the low 90s on Saturday. Sunday temperatures are expected to be
cooler in the mid 80s.

Monday, a week frontal boundary is forecasted to approach from the
west. This boundary may act as a lifting mechanism for the
development of convection. If temperatures remain high and the
influence of tropical moisture continues to be transported into the
region then showers and thunderstorms could be possible on
Monday.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
Showers and potentially severe thunderstorms will cross the
terminals this afternoon and early evening, potentially bringing
winds gusts on the order of 40 to 50 knots. As this activity
moves across the terminals, ifr lifr vis CIGS are likely in the
strongest activity. Conditions improve later this evening and
overnight as convection wanes. Some late night visibility
restrictions are possible with fog at mrb iad.

A weak cold front will move across the terminals overnight,
shifting winds out of the northwest and bringing drier
conditions through Thursday night.VFR conditions are forecast
through this period.

Friday, a high pressure will be in place just off the eastern
sea board. Skies should remain mostly clear. Saturday, a
southerly flow coupled with tropical moisture being transported
into the region could lead to the formation of thunderstorms.

Marine
Showers and potentially severe thunderstorms will cross the
waters this afternoon and early evening. These storms will be
capable of producing strong gusty winds, and heavy rain that
briefly reduces visibility to below 1 nautical mile. While
conditions are forecast to remain sub-sca, thunderstorm activity
will likely result in the need for special marine warnings, so
remain ALERT if on the waters today.

A cold front will approach the waters tonight. A shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but coverage should be limited
due unfavorable timing. This weak cold front will pass through
the waters Wednesday. A north to northwest flow will develop
behind the boundary. Winds may come close to SCA criteria, but
have gusts capped around 15 knots for now due to the relatively
cooler waters. High pressure will build over the waters
Wednesday night through Friday before moving offshore during the
weekend. A return southerly flow will develop during the
weekend and this may result in popup showers and thunderstorms,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

A southerly flow on Friday may warrant the need for a small craft
advisory. On Saturday, the southerly flow coupled with a chance for
thunderstorms will likely lead to the need for a continue small
craft advisory.

Tides coastal flooding
The latest water levels were below minor flooding thresholds for
washington dc. Freshwater continues to decrease upstream so that
is having less of an impact. However, the southerly flow will
continue today and the high tide this afternoon will be the
higher of the two. A coastal flood advisory remains in effect
until 5pm encompassing the the high tide cycle this afternoon.

The best chance for minor flooding will be at the washington
channel with potomac river at georgetown likely remaining below
minor flooding thresholds.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
dcz001.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bkf
near term... Bkf
short term... Bkf
long term... Jmg
aviation... Bkf jmg
marine... Bkf jmg
tides coastal flooding... Bjl bkf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi46 min SSE 5.1 G 6 75°F 66°F1016.1 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi46 min E 1.9 G 4.1 67°F 72°F1016.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 72 mi46 min E 5.1 G 6 67°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD7 mi41 minN 03.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist72°F68°F87%1016.9 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi41 minW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F69°F85%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4E4S4SE7E4SE5SE6S8S7S9S10S6S8S11S7S5S8S7S7S8S6S6S6Calm
1 day agoW14W9NW10NW11N7N7NE6N6N6N5N4N44CalmCalmN3N4N5N43E43W4NW3
2 days agoS3S4S7NE3CalmN4NW5NW3CalmNW3W4W4W3SE3S4CalmCalmS7SW6SW6SW8W8W9NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:05 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:47 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:22 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.533.232.51.91.40.90.50.40.71.52.433.23.22.82.21.61.10.60.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, Washington, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:10 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:08 AM EDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:49 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:26 PM EDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:25 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.533.232.621.40.90.50.40.71.52.32.93.23.22.82.21.61.10.60.20.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.