Monday, October22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kemps Mill, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:22PM Monday October 22, 2018 10:53 PM EDT (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 4:46PMMoonset 4:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1035 Pm Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening and early morning. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the evening. Rain likely after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely .
ANZ500 1035 Pm Edt Mon Oct 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore tonight. A cold front approaching from the great lakes will cross the waters late Tuesday, followed by another area of high pressure Wednesday into Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemps Mill, MD
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location: 39.63, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230050
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
850 pm edt Mon oct 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will drift offshore overnight. A cold front
approaching from the great lakes will cross the region late
Tuesday. High pressure will follow for much of the second half
of the week. Low pressure will likely approach the area from the
southeastern united states by this weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure passing off the
coast. This is allowing winds to shift into a southelry return
flow pattern.

Some mid and high level clouds will be observed from time to
time tonight well ahead of an approaching upper trough currently
near the great lakes, but it will be dry at the surface.

Lows tonight will not be as cold as last night with some cloud
cover and light southerly winds, generally in the 40s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
Mid to upper trough diving in from the great lakes will bring a
surface cold front (dry passage expected) through the mid-
atlantic by late Tuesday. Behind the front, breezy northwest
flow will bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures.

Tuesday will likely be the mildest day of the week with highs in
the 60s, dropping into the upper 30s and 40s Tuesday night.

It'll be about 10 degrees cooler Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
On Thursday, the region will be under the back end of an
exiting upper level trough moving out of the northeast u.S. And
into the north atlantic. An area of surface high pressure will
be collocated with this region of descent somewhere along the
u.S. Canada border in the great lakes region throughout the day
on Thursday. This high pressure will drift east throughout the
day on Thursday, ending up in the northeast u.S. By Thursday
night into Friday. This pattern will result in northerly flow at
the surface and northwesterly flow in the middle and upper
levels. Overall, this will keep things dry across the region on
Thursday. However, high temperatures will struggle to get out of
the low 50s, with overnight lows into Friday morning reaching
the low to mid 30s.

While all is quiet in our area, model guidance is pretty
certain about the formation of a surface low pressure system
along the gulf coast. A trough across the central u.S. Will
phase with energy associated with the remnants of hurricane
willa in the eastern pacific. With this occurring right along
the gulf coast, it seems likely to see low pressure spin up in
that region.

The forecast for Friday and Saturday is very uncertain at this
time, as most guidance has shown several different solutions
with where this low pressure system GOES as it makes its turn to
the north. However, one thing that is agreed upon is that dry
and cool conditions will persist into Friday morning, as high
pressure continues to funnel in cooler air from the north. This
surface high then begins to move northeast towards maine. The
surface low will move somewhere along the southeast coast on
Friday into Friday night, but the exact track of this low is
still very uncertain as it moves somewhere along the east coast
into Saturday. In short, if the low remains closer to the coast,
the area could see a lot of rain. However, if the system is
able to stay far enough offshore, we could see little to no
rain. Right now, the fv3, european, and canadian models all
favor the western track, while the GFS favors a more eastern
track. Ensembles are still a bit spread out for both the gefs
and eps, but generally follow the trends of their deterministic
runs. For now, most likely period of precipitation appears to be
Saturday. Temperatures during this period will range from the
mid 40s to low 50s for highs, and mid 30s to low 40s for lows.

Also possible during this system will be some wet snow across
the higher elevations. With temperatures in the 30s throughout
most of this period in the higher elevations, introducing at
least the chance for some snow to mix in with rain over the
higher terrain.

Another low pressure system, associated with a second piece of
shortwave energy, will move towards the area on Sunday. Nearly
every piece of guidance suggests some precip across the area
from this storm, so keeping chance pops through Sunday across
the region, with a chance of rain or snow across the highest
elevations again.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
MainlyVFR expected through Wednesday. Winds generally under 10
knots overnight. A wind shift from southwest to northwest is
expected behind a cold front late Tuesday. Winds will become
gusty Wednesday, with gusts to 25+ kts possible.

On Thursday, high pressure will continue to be in place over
the region. Winds will be out of the north and could be a bit
gusty at times, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible. Skies will be
mostly clear withVFR conditions expected. Friday, winds will
remain light and turn easterly ahead of an approaching coastal
low pressure system.

With timing and exact track still uncertain for the coastal
low, the current forecast brings in a chance of rain by Friday
evening. So, lower ceilings could be possible late in the
forecast period. However, expecting conditions to remainVFR
much of the time.

Marine
Gusts to around 20 knots are expected as southwesterly return
flow continues. Gusts are expected to decrease quickly by late
evening over the more sheltered waters, with SCA gusts
persisting through the night in southerly channeling over open
parts of the chespeake bay and lower tidal potomac river.

There will likely be a lull in the winds Tuesday morning before
the gradient increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The
best low level winds and mixing appear to be over northern
waters so SCA in effect north of north beach on the bay and
north of indian head on the tidal potomac.

Nw pressure surge should push winds well into SCA range during
the evening, diminishing over sheltered waters overnight but
persisting over open waters through the night. A few gusts to
near gale force are possible immediately behind the front. Sca
will likely need to be extended into Wednesday.

Gusty northerly winds on Thursday under mostly clear skies.

Current forecast is for wins to gust to SCA criteria, so an sca
may be warranted on Thursday. On Friday, winds continue to have
the potential to gust to SCA criteria, but look to calm down
Friday afternoon and evening.

A coastal low pressure system will be approaching the area from
the south, bringing a chance for rain to the area by Friday
evening. Winds will begin to increase again late on Friday night
into Saturday as the low moves closer to the region.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz531>533-
539>541.

Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday
for anz530>533-538>541.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz530-535-
536-538-542.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday
for anz537-542.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz534-543.

Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz535.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for anz537.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday
night for anz536.

Synopsis... Dhof rcm
near term... Dhof rcm
short term... Dhof
long term... Cjl
aviation... Dhof cjl rcm
marine... Dhof cjl rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi35 min S 6 G 8 53°F 59°F1021.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi41 min Calm G 4.1 52°F 66°F1020.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 73 mi35 min S 5.1 G 6 52°F 1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD6 mi60 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F36°F59%1020.9 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F89%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:51 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:09 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.50.30.61.32.12.6332.72.11.40.80.40.20.411.82.533.132.41.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:45 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:04 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.40.40.71.42.12.7332.72.11.40.80.40.20.411.92.633.12.92.41.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.