Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kemps Mill, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:24PM Monday May 20, 2019 4:37 PM EDT (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:22PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 137 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Tue..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 137 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the area this afternoon and early evening. High pressure will dominate in its wake through the middle portion of the week. A warm front will lift north through the area Wednesday night and linger near the mid atlantic to finish out the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemps Mill, MD
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location: 39.63, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 201848
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
248 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area later this afternoon and early
evening. Canadian high pressure will dominate in its wake
through the middle portion of the work week. This high will
shift offshore Wednesday night as a frontal boundary lingers
near the mid atlantic to finish out the week.

Near term through tonight
A cold front extends from northeast maryland, across far
northern virginia, and into east-central parts of west virginia.

Along and ahead of the front, towering cumulus and a couple of
showers are developing in the virginia piedmont and northeast
virginia. Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the next two to three hours. The
eastern one-third of our CWA is in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms, especially along and southeast of i-95. Temperatures
have risen into the middle to upper 80s in most areas. Once we
get beyond 6pm, shower and thunderstorms should cease, except
for far southern maryland. Temperatures will become cooler
tonight into the 50s as drier air comes in from the northwest.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
High pressure will build down of the mid atlantic from the
great lakes Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds on
Tuesday will yield much cooler temperatures in the low to middle
70s area wide, moderating slightly on Wednesday but still
holding in the 70s. The strong and complex system impacting the
southern central plains the next couple of days will lift
northward into the upper midwest late Wednesday and Wednesday
night. This will lift a warm front toward our region Wednesday
night as the high shifts off the coast. This will likely bring
an increase in cloud cover Wednesday night, as well as
increasing shower chances by early Thursday morning, mainly west
of the blue ridge.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Upper level ridging will remain centered over the southeastern
united states through at least Saturday. A warm front likely will be
north of the area on Thursday. Some diurnal convection will be
possible due to increasing warmth and humidity, along with a
potential disturbance rounding the ridge and a lee pressure trough.

Recent guidance trends suggest a stronger shortwave will drive low
pressure into new england Thursday night into Friday, which will
send a cold front southward through the area... Another potential
focus for precipitation.

High pressure will briefly build in Friday night with the upper
ridge expanding back north. Temperatures will return to normal as
long as we're on the north side of the front. The next low pressure
system will be moving through the northern plains, which will
eventually force the warm front back northward later in the weekend.

As the low moves toward eastern canada, the front will make a push
back to the south, though how far it gets will depend on the
strength of the ridge. Chance for convection will depend on the
positioning of the fronts from Saturday through Monday, thus pops
will be kept low at this time.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
The mrb terminal is now on the north side of the cold front. The
front will be passing through the iad and mtn terminals within
another hour, then pass through the bwi and dca terminal within
an hour after that and so on.VFR conditions expected, but
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms could yield a brief
episode of subVFR conditions at iad dca bwi mtn between
19-21z. Confidence is low in coverage at this time, so will
include further detail in the TAF as timing confidence
increases.

The front will push to the south and east of the terminals this
evening, with west northwest winds taking hold overnight.

Canadian high pressure will build over the terminals Tuesday
through Wednesday, with gusty northwest winds on Tuesday
slacking and becoming light through Wednesday night. No threat
for precipitation or subVFR conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.

Vfr conditions will prevail Thursday through Saturday but brief
flight restrictions could be possible as showers and thunderstorms
develop along a wavering frontal boundary.

Marine
A cold front is expected to cross the waters this afternoon and
evening. Gusty southwesterly breezes are expected ahead of the
front. A SCA remains in effect. A couple of showers storms is
expected with the frontal passage, which could require the need
for special marine warnings in any stronger storm packing gusty
winds.

After a bit of a lull in winds in the wake of the frontal
passage, the gradient is expected to tighten Tuesday morning,
thus SCA conditions expected once again. As high pressure shifts
over the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night, light
winds will prevail with no threat of gusty showers storms.

A warm front will lift north Thursday and return south on Friday as
a cold front. If current model projections hold, SCA conditions
could occur with northwest winds on Friday. High pressure will bring
lighter winds Saturday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Klw
near term... Klw
short term... Klw
long term... Ads
aviation... Ads klw
marine... Ads klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 66 mi38 min SW 11 G 17 88°F 70°F1008.4 hPa (-2.6)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 69 mi44 min W 5.1 G 9.9 89°F 72°F1007.6 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 73 mi38 min WSW 12 G 19 86°F 1007.8 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD6 mi45 minW 16 G 2510.00 miA Few Clouds85°F54°F35%1009.8 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV18 mi45 minW 16 G 2210.00 miFair86°F60°F42%1008.4 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SE5SW8
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1 day agoSE4SE5SE4SE4E5E5N4E4E4SE5SE4S3E3SE4CalmS4S8S4S5SW5S5S8S8N11
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2 days agoNW15
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NW12W12SW5CalmCalmSW3S4S3W6CalmW3SW5NW4NW5NW4NW3NW6NW4S4Calm5Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:41 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:24 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:02 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.81.20.70.30.30.71.62.63.33.73.63.12.41.81.10.60.10.10.61.52.42.93.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.
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Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:19 AM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:57 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.81.10.70.30.30.71.72.73.43.73.63.12.41.71.10.50.10.10.71.62.433.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.