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Marine Weather and Tides Kemps Mill, MD Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES 10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome. 10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

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Sunrise 7:27AM

Sunset 6:22PM

Monday October 22, 2018 10:53 PM EDT (02:53 UTC)

Moonrise 4:46PM

Moonset 4:07AM

Illumination 98%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kemps Mill, MD

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Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington

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Fxus61 klwx 230050 afdlwx area forecast discussion national weather service baltimore md washington dc 850 pm edt Mon oct 22 2018 Synopsis High pressure will drift offshore overnight. A cold front approaching from the great lakes will cross the region late Tuesday. High pressure will follow for much of the second half of the week. Low pressure will likely approach the area from the southeastern united states by this weekend. Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning Latest surface analysis shows high pressure passing off the coast. This is allowing winds to shift into a southelry return flow pattern. Some mid and high level clouds will be observed from time to time tonight well ahead of an approaching upper trough currently near the great lakes, but it will be dry at the surface. Lows tonight will not be as cold as last night with some cloud cover and light southerly winds, generally in the 40s. Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night Mid to upper trough diving in from the great lakes will bring a surface cold front (dry passage expected) through the mid- atlantic by late Tuesday. Behind the front, breezy northwest flow will bring in a reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures. Tuesday will likely be the mildest day of the week with highs in the 60s, dropping into the upper 30s and 40s Tuesday night. It'll be about 10 degrees cooler Wednesday and Wednesday night. Long term Thursday through Monday On Thursday, the region will be under the back end of an exiting upper level trough moving out of the northeast u.S. And into the north atlantic. An area of surface high pressure will be collocated with this region of descent somewhere along the u.S. Canada border in the great lakes region throughout the day on Thursday. This high pressure will drift east throughout the day on Thursday, ending up in the northeast u.S. By Thursday night into Friday. This pattern will result in northerly flow at the surface and northwesterly flow in the middle and upper levels. Overall, this will keep things dry across the region on Thursday. However, high temperatures will struggle to get out of the low 50s, with overnight lows into Friday morning reaching the low to mid 30s. While all is quiet in our area, model guidance is pretty certain about the formation of a surface low pressure system along the gulf coast. A trough across the central u.S. Will phase with energy associated with the remnants of hurricane willa in the eastern pacific. With this occurring right along the gulf coast, it seems likely to see low pressure spin up in that region. The forecast for Friday and Saturday is very uncertain at this time, as most guidance has shown several different solutions with where this low pressure system GOES as it makes its turn to the north. However, one thing that is agreed upon is that dry and cool conditions will persist into Friday morning, as high pressure continues to funnel in cooler air from the north. This surface high then begins to move northeast towards maine. The surface low will move somewhere along the southeast coast on Friday into Friday night, but the exact track of this low is still very uncertain as it moves somewhere along the east coast into Saturday. In short, if the low remains closer to the coast, the area could see a lot of rain. However, if the system is able to stay far enough offshore, we could see little to no rain. Right now, the fv3, european, and canadian models all favor the western track, while the GFS favors a more eastern track. Ensembles are still a bit spread out for both the gefs and eps, but generally follow the trends of their deterministic runs. For now, most likely period of precipitation appears to be Saturday. Temperatures during this period will range from the mid 40s to low 50s for highs, and mid 30s to low 40s for lows. Also possible during this system will be some wet snow across the higher elevations. With temperatures in the 30s throughout most of this period in the higher elevations, introducing at least the chance for some snow to mix in with rain over the higher terrain. Another low pressure system, associated with a second piece of shortwave energy, will move towards the area on Sunday. Nearly every piece of guidance suggests some precip across the area from this storm, so keeping chance pops through Sunday across

the region, with a chance of rain or snow across the highest elevations again. Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday MainlyVFR expected through Wednesday. Winds generally under 10 knots overnight. A wind shift from southwest to northwest is expected behind a cold front late Tuesday. Winds will become gusty Wednesday, with gusts to 25+ kts possible. On Thursday, high pressure will continue to be in place over the region. Winds will be out of the north and could be a bit gusty at times, with gusts of 15-20 kts possible. Skies will be mostly clear withVFR conditions expected. Friday, winds will remain light and turn easterly ahead of an approaching coastal low pressure system. With timing and exact track still uncertain for the coastal low, the current forecast brings in a chance of rain by Friday evening. So, lower ceilings could be possible late in the forecast period. However, expecting conditions to remainVFR much of the time. Marine Gusts to around 20 knots are expected as southwesterly return flow continues. Gusts are expected to decrease quickly by late evening over the more sheltered waters, with SCA gusts persisting through the night in southerly channeling over open parts of the chespeake bay and lower tidal potomac river. There will likely be a lull in the winds Tuesday morning before the gradient increases ahead of an approaching cold front. The best low level winds and mixing appear to be over northern waters so SCA in effect north of north beach on the bay and north of indian head on the tidal potomac. Nw pressure surge should push winds well into SCA range during the evening, diminishing over sheltered waters overnight but persisting over open waters through the night. A few gusts to near gale force are possible immediately behind the front. Sca will likely need to be extended into Wednesday. Gusty northerly winds on Thursday under mostly clear skies. Current forecast is for wins to gust to SCA criteria, so an sca may be warranted on Thursday. On Friday, winds continue to have the potential to gust to SCA criteria, but look to calm down Friday afternoon and evening. A coastal low pressure system will be approaching the area from the south, bringing a chance for rain to the area by Friday evening. Winds will begin to increase again late on Friday night into Saturday as the low moves closer to the region. Lwx watches warnings advisories Dc... None. Md... None. Va... None. Wv... None. Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz531>533- 539>541. Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday for anz530>533-538>541. Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz530-535- 536-538-542. Small craft advisory from 6 pm Tuesday to 6 am edt Wednesday for anz537-542. Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz534-543. Small craft advisory from noon Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday night for anz535. Small craft advisory until noon edt Tuesday for anz537. Small craft advisory from 6 pm Tuesday to midnight edt Tuesday night for anz536. Synopsis... Dhof rcm near term... Dhof rcm short term... Dhof long term... Cjl aviation... Dhof cjl rcm marine... Dhof cjl rcm

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC	66 mi	35 min	S 6 G 8	53°F	59°F		1021.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD	69 mi	41 min	Calm G 4.1	52°F	66°F		1020.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD	73 mi	35 min	S 5.1 G 6	52°F			1021.2 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD	6 mi	60 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	50°F	36°F	59%	1020.9 hPa
Eastern WV Regional Airport/Shepherd Field, WV	18 mi	60 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	42°F	39°F	89%	1019.6 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, D.C.

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Tide / Current Tables for Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.