Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cherry Creek, CO

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:55PM Sunday September 23, 2018 1:58 PM MDT (19:58 UTC) Moonrise 6:38PMMoonset 5:12AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cherry Creek, CO
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location: 39.64, -104.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 231758
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
1158 am mdt Sun sep 23 2018

Update
Issued at 1154 am mdt Sun sep 23 2018
just some minor adjustments at this time to reflect a bit more
cumulus over the mountains and current conditions. It still looks
like we are on track to be near our record high of 90 this
afternoon.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 334 am mdt Sun sep 23 2018
another unseasonably warm day can be expected with increasing
west southwest flow aloft, a little more warm advection, and
downslope flow. We should see highs approaching 90f across the
plains considering these factors (the record high for denver is
90f set in 1905 and previous years, and we should be very close to
that). Winds increase across the mountains and far northern
foothills today, more on fire weather concerns in the fire weather
sections below.

For tonight, a short wave trough will move across the northern
rockies. This will drag a cold front across the mountains after
midnight and bring a surge of cooler air onto the plains by 12z.

There is weak large scale QG ascent on the tail end of this short
wave, leading to a chance of showers. The best chance would be
over the northern mountains and fortunately in the vicinity of the
existing fires, but precipitation amounts look light and mostly
under a tenth of an inch in areas that do receive the showers.

Could see a couple sprinkles light showers stretch onto the
northern plains very late tonight behind the front. Otherwise
look for more cloudiness through the night.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 334 am mdt Sun sep 23 2018
the flow aloft will become more westerly on Mon as a weak
disturbance exits the plains in the morning. QG fields show
downward ascent most of the day, however, there will be enough
moisture embedded in the flow along with some instability to keep
in a slight chc of showers and a few storms across the higher
terrain. Over the plains a cool front will move across in the
early morning hours which will drop temps back into the 75 to 80
degree range. By aftn capes will be around 500 j kg so will keep
in a slight chc of showers and storms as well. Also areas of smoke
may affect most of the area as well with quite a bit of haze.

For Mon night into Tue the flow aloft will become more wnw. There
is another disturbance embedded in the flow which will affect the
far nern plains overnight into early tue. In addition a secondary
push of cooler air will move across nern co as well. As a result
will keep in a chc of showers over the far nern plains with dry
conditions elsewhere overnight into Tue morning. By aftn any shower
activity will probably be confined to the higher terrain south of
i-70. As for highs readings will only be in the 60s over nern co.

By Tue night into Wed the flow aloft will be nwly. The ECMWF still
has another weak disturbance moving across as a warm air advection
ptrn begins to develop over the plains overnight into Wed morning.

As a result this leads to some shower activity mainly across sern
portions of the cwa. Meanwhile the GFS keeps the precip further to
the south. As for highs, readings over nern co will be in the upper
60s to mid 70s.

For Thu dry northwest flow aloft will be over the area which will
become more westerly on fri. At the sfc, another front will move
into nern co on Thu which will keep temps in the mid 60s to lower
70s. On Fri highs will rise back to seasonal levels. By Sat the
flow aloft will become more southwest with warmer temps. At this
time the chc of precip Thu thru Sat looks minimal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1154 am mdt Sun sep 23 2018
vfr through tonight. Wildfire smoke will increase again this
afternoon, mainly aloft and mainly north of denver, with little
impact expected on denver area terminals. Light winds will become
east to southeast by 20z, then back to S W drainage by 02z.

Fire weather
Issued at 334 am mdt Sun sep 23 2018
stronger winds can be expected over the northern mountains, high
valleys, and far northern front range foothills today. There has
been some evidence of moisture returning northeastward today, but
the main increase doesn't happen until this evening. As a result,
critical or near critical humidity levels around 15% can be
expected. Given the existing fires, very dry fuels, and increase
in winds today versus yesterday, we've opted to issue a red flag
warning for much of jackson and grand counties (fire weather zones
211, 213, and 217) from 11 am til 8 pm. Worst conditions expected
from noon to 6 pm. Hopefully we get a couple light showers on the
burn areas tonight, but wetting rains greater than 0.10 would be
tough to get.

Humidity levels will rise on Monday, however, gusty winds will occur
over the higher terrain with a few showers possible. Tuesday will
see lighter winds with slightly lower humidity levels over the
higher terrain. Fire danger will likely increase for Wednesday
through Friday along and west of the divide as winds increase and
humidity levels decrease.

Bou watches warnings advisories
Red flag warning until 8 pm mdt this evening for coz211-213-217.

Update... Gimmestad
short term... Barjenbruch
long term... Rpk
aviation... Gimmestad
fire weather... Barjenbruch rpk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO6 mi65 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds81°F27°F14%1010.5 hPa
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO9 mi2 hrsE 310.00 miA Few Clouds80°F23°F12%1010.9 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi65 minWSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds86°F18°F8%1008.1 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO20 mi66 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F21°F10%1017.3 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO23 mi67 minSE 830.00 miA Few Clouds84°F26°F12%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from APA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm5N7E5E6E8SE7S8S8S9S7S6S4W9SW9SW11SW10SW11SW13SW14SW11SW73Calm
1 day agoS13
G22
SE16
G23
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G28
S12
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S12S7S6SW6CalmCalmSE3SW8SW12SW12W75E5
2 days agoN3N7
G16
4N4N8N13N5NE7
G15
NE13
G21
E10CalmCalmNE5NE6E6SE4SE6S8S9----S18
G28
S19
G24
S15

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.