Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cherry Creek, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:16PM Thursday October 18, 2018 2:41 PM MDT (20:41 UTC) Moonrise 3:35PMMoonset 1:06AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cherry Creek, CO
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location: 39.64, -104.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 181636
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
1036 am mdt Thu oct 18 2018

Update
Issued at 951 am mdt Thu oct 18 2018
the central mountains will be the main focus today as a
disturbance over utah and western colorado drifts eastward toward
our CWA this afternoon and evening. Overall, this system is rather
weak with plenty of dry air seen on water vapor extending along
the jet streak from arizona northeastward into nebraska. Infrared
satellite has depicted relatively warm cloud tops overnight and
into this morning although there has been some cooling of the
cloud tops in eastern utah over the past couple of hours. Non-
convective allowing models don't indicate much precipitation from
this system in the mountains but they may not be telling the whole
story. Model soundings indicate that with decent surface warming
and a colder mid-level airmass associated with the disturbance
moving overhead this afternoon, convective showers could develop
south of grand lake to northern park county. Convective allowing
models like the rap and hrrr are picking up on these stronger
showers and have consistently produced maximum QPF values between
0.45 and 0.65 inches in summit and grand counties. I think these
models are likely overdoing the maximum precipitation as they may
not be picking up on the relatively strong inversion seen on the
12z dnr sounding at about 550 mbs. However, this consistent trend
in the high resolution models gives me enough confidence to
increase the pops, qpf, and snow amounts in the central mountains.

Snowfall should be between 1-4 inches above 10,000 feet with
slightly higher values possible in the strongest convective
showers.

Otherwise, I have increased high temperatures across the urban
corridor and eastern plains due to the sunshine and downslope
flow. A few showers could sneak into lincoln and washington
counties throughout the morning.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 427 am mdt Thu oct 18 2018
today is the day that the weak upper low that has been drifting
over the desert southwest the past few days is forecast to move
over colorado and lose its identity. So far, satellite imagery has
been showing the upper circulation moving northward over eastern
utah with a few weak showers moving over east-central utah and
west-central colorado. The rap model indicates that the upper low
will begin an easterly track during the mid-afternoon hours. The
primary impact will be light shower activity over the central
colorado mountains through this afternoon and evening. Mid and
high level cloudiness will also move over the forecast area
through much of the day. Temperatures should be about the same as
they were yesterday.

Surface pressure charts show a lee trough of low pressure in place
over southeast wyoming and the i-25 corridor. This has created
some gusty southerly winds over the palmer divide and into the
denver area. Breezy conditions in these areas should continue
this morning and then expand eastward onto the plains as the upper
low from the west slope ejecting across the state produces falling
surface pressures over northeast colorado into this evening. Wind
gusts up to about 25 mph will be possible.

Partly cloudy skies will continue into tonight as the remnants of
the weak upper low make their way eastward. Overnight lows should
be around seasonal normals.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 427 am mdt Thu oct 18 2018
a dry and mild weather pattern will be in place from Friday thru the
weekend. Highs each day will generally be above seasonal normals
with the warmest day on Sunday based on 850-700 mb temps.

By early next week a weak upper level trough will move into the
great basin with southwest flow aloft. Cross-sections show an
increase in mid level moisture on Monday which could lead to a
slight chc of aftn showers in the mtns. Highs will continue a few
degrees above normal.

For Tuesday, a piece of the weak upper level trough may move
across the area, which would increase the chc of showers over the
higher terrain with a slight chc across the plains. By Wednesday
this feature is fcst to be east of the area. Temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday will remain at or slightly above seasonal normals.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 951 am mdt Thu oct 18 2018
vfr conditions will continue through tomorrow afternoon. Moderate
southerly winds will continue into the early afternoon at den and
apa. By around 19z, a weak boundary will drift southward stalling
out around den. Depending on where this boundary decides to
stall, winds may shift to the north at den and may do so for a
couple of hours. We will amend the TAF if confidence increases in
the northerly winds, but right now confidence is low.

A weak disturbance over utah and western colorado will drift
eastward today as showers will develop over the central mountains.

With general downslope flow, these showers should dissipate
before they reach the airports but it is possible one of these
showers reaches bjc and apa. MVFR ceilings and visiblities may be
possible in one of these showers.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Danielson
short term... Dankers
long term... Rpk
aviation... Danielson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO6 mi49 minSW 16 G 2610.00 miA Few Clouds67°F27°F22%1017.5 hPa
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO9 mi1.7 hrsS 510.00 miA Few Clouds66°F25°F21%1017.5 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi49 minWNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds68°F27°F21%1015.8 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO20 mi51 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F24°F20%1021.3 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO23 mi1.9 hrsNNE 650.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F28°F26%1022.3 hPa

Wind History from APA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE18
G28
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S13S16S15S14S12S14S10SW14SW16SW15
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1 day agoNE85N8NE4E4S3S4SW4S4S5CalmSE6S5S4S5SE5S3SE3S5SE6SE10
G19
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S16
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G24
2 days agoCalmN4N2CalmCalmS3S5SE5SE3S5S6CalmS7SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmW3SW63N9
G15
N7NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.