Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cherry Creek, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:31PM Sunday June 17, 2018 10:12 PM MDT (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:53AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cherry Creek, CO
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location: 39.64, -104.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 180153
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
753 pm mdt Sun jun 17 2018

Update
Issued at 753 pm mdt Sun jun 17 2018
the strongest storms and severe threat have shift east of the
area. Still seeing showers over northern colorado and also across
the mountains and foothills. Good agreement among the models the
showers will shift east onto the front range and eastern plains
this evening and overnight.

The 00z sounding at kdnr showed a very moist airmass in place with
precipitable water value of 1.22 inches, so plenty of moisture to
work with. Winds are northerly at 5-15 knots from the surface
through 700mb, only an upslope direction for the palmer divide. Not
seeing any strong forcing to produce heavy rainfall, so expect
rainfall rates to be up to a third inch per. However, most rain
rates will be less than a quarter inch. Will continue with high pops
for tonight. Will also add pop for Monday morning across far northern
colorado. It appears this system will be a little slower exiting the
area.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 242 pm mdt Sun jun 17 2018
showers and thunderstorms over the northern mountains continue to
dissipate as they come down in elevation over the plains, as the
stratus has left more stable conditions with cooler surface
temperatures. However, further south, less stratus cover earlier
on allowed for warmer temperatures so storms are able to survive
coming off the southern foothills and palmer divide, moving
northeast into better CAPE values. Precipitable water values
continue to be near an inch, with higher values near the northeast
corner. The convergence boundary along the surface low trough axis
out from sedgwick county south-southwest into eastern lincoln
county is expected to provide the focus for severe weather,
already spawning a tornado-producing storm in sedgwick county.

Large hail, tornadoes and strong winds will continue to be a
threat out east through mid-evening. Elsewhere, storms will still
have the potential for brief heavy rain, with rainfall rates of
0.5-1.0 inches in 20 minutes or less. Northeasterly upslope flow
at the surface and the upper disturbance currently moving north over
southern new mexico and into the state later tonight will keep the
convective activity going over most of the forecast area through
midnight, with the high country likely shutting off shortly after,
and showers pushing northeast through the early morning hours.

On Monday, drier southwesterly flow aloft will push over the area
as an upper low spins in the northern great basin. At the surface
however, a low will deepen over southeastern colorado with
northeasterly flow into the forecast area. This will cap the area
in the morning, but then erode and allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the high terrain, mostly along and east of the
divide in the afternoon, moving east over the adjacent plains.

Temperatures will be similar to a few degrees warmer tomorrow.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 327 pm mdt Sun jun 17 2018
models have south-southwesterly flow aloft Monday night into
Tuesday night. An upper trough axis moves across the CWA Wednesday
with weak northwesterly flow aloft on Wednesday night. The
synoptic scale energy is pretty benign on the QG omega fields
through the periods. The low level pressure and wind fields show
northeasterly upslope behind a cold front move across Monday
night. The upslope continues Tuesday through Wednesday. There
could be normal drainage patterns Wednesday night. For moisture,
models keep plenty around through Wednesday night. There are 50s-
lower 60s f dew point readings for the plains and lower foothills
Monday night through Wednesday night. There is pretty significant
cape around through the periods as well. The QPF fields show
plenty of measure rainfall for the afternoon and evening periods,
especially on the gfs. Will go with or keep in the pretty high
pops for the late day periods. Will need to keep an eye out for
excessive rainfall of and flooding potential for late day Tuesday.

For temperatures, Monday's highs are a bit higher than today's,
with Tuesday's cooling back down again. For the later days,
Thursday through Sunday, models have upper ridging on Thursday and
Friday along with some drying and warming. There is a weak upper
trough on most of the models later Saturday into Sunday. That
should increase the pops again.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 753 pm mdt Sun jun 17 2018
a very moist airmass in place will keep lows clouds over the area
through tonight and into Monday morning. Ceilings are expect to fall
to 500 to 2000 feet by 06z and remain that low through about 15z
Monday. Rain is expected to reform over the denver area and linger
through 12z. Threat for additional thunderstorms this evening is
low.

Hydrology
Issued at 327 pm mdt Sun jun 17 2018
precipitable water values of 1-1.2 inches will continue to support
the chance of heavy rain from the stronger thunderstorms, most
likely occurring over the southern urban corridor then northeast
across the rest of the plains. Storms so far have exhibited
rainfall rates of 0.5 inches in as little as 10 minutes. Expect
some stronger storms to be able to produce as much an inch in 20
minutes. Showers and storms will continue through midnight tonight
then decrease, with the greatest chance of possible localized
flooding issues until 9pm. Tomorrow, precipitable water values
decrease and there will not be an upper disturbance to deal with,
so hydrology issues will be much less of a concern.

In the later periods, Monday night through Wednesday night,
precipitable water values are progged in the 0.75-1.25 range for
the plains and foothills. Flashing flooding issues are a
possibility, especially late day Tuesday as the models show this
the wettest period.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Meier
short term... Kriederman
long term... .Rjk
aviation... Meier
hydrology... .Kriederman rjk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO6 mi19 minENE 66.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist57°F55°F93%1014.7 hPa
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO9 mi74 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast57°F57°F100%1013.3 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi19 minNE 710.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1013.2 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO20 mi12 minN 1110.00 miOvercast59°F56°F93%1019.3 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO23 mi25 minNE 37.00 miLight Rain59°F57°F94%1019 hPa

Wind History from APA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N4N6NW4NW7N5N5N5NW54NW7N9N9
G15
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N11NE9NW12N8N11N10N12NE9NE6
1 day agoW5S3S5SE4CalmCalmSW8W6NW3W7SW6N4N5N7E7
G22
NE9N6N10NW9N6N7N9N12N9
2 days agoS6S7S6SE7S7SE5S4SW4SW5W9SW6CalmCalm6NE4NE8N20
G29
NE8NE6NE9
G19
E17
G23
SE9CalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.