Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 12:37 AM   Moonset 9:28 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 290948 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 548 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Southerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal today.
Showers and thunderstorms will start to move into the area this afternoon and continue tonight into Tuesday as a cold front crosses the area. High pressure will then build in for midweek, offering a dry period. A chance for precipitation will return for the end of the week into the weekend with the approach of the next frontal system.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Mid level low over the Plains to open up and eject northeast across the western Great Lakes today. Mid level flow backs across the low area with 8H jet of 35-40 kts offering an axis of low level theta-e advection. An axis of moisture and marginal instability to advect into ILN/s FA this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Have showers and a chance of thunderstorms developing into the west in the late afternoon and working east across the area thru early evening. Marginal instability and moist soundings will limit severe weather potential today.

Warm temperatures to continue with highs from near 80 west to the mid 80s east. Breezy conditions continue today with southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Axis of low level theta-e advection associated with 8H jet of 35-40 kts across the area this evening. Ongoing showers and embedded storms over the west late in the day. Instability decreases this evening, so as the axis of showers and thunderstorms progress east tonight the coverage of thunderstorms will decrease. Rain totals today and tonight will range from around and an inch in the west to a quarter to a half inch in the east. Lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models solutions generally trending a little slower with the frontal system and therefore will keep the threat for showers and a chance for thunderstorms in the east Tuesday. Clouds look to decrease from west to east in the afternoon and pcpn chances diminish. Temperatures will be cooler with highs from 70 to 75.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Subtle H5 height rises begin to occur at the start of the period.
Weak high pressure at the surface will be in place across the Ohio Valley. Surface flow will shift from the west-northwest back to the southwest for Wednesday. This, combined with the H5 ridge becoming more amplified will lead to a spike in temperatures, with most locations reaching 80 degrees again. Dry conditions and continued warming will carry into Thursday. Based on latest guidance, Thursday is now trending dry during the daytime hours for our entire CWA

Mean ridge axis begins to shift east of our CWA Thursday night, gradually replaced by a longwave trough. PoPs increase substantially as we progress into Friday. There is better consensus amongst long range models of Friday receiving the highest QPF from this system.
Chances for rain may linger into Friday night as a surface cold front gradually moves through. Uncertainty then remains on PoPs for Saturday depending on how the upper flow regime orients itself.
However, temperatures will certainly trend lower on Saturday.

There is a signal of a shortwave trough that ejects northeast from the Ark-La-Tex region late Sunday into Monday. This will bring another shot of wetter weather to the Ohio Valley, but timing remains uncertain.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front today. This will lead to an increase in mid and high level clouds this morning and VFR clouds of 5000-6000 feet this afternoon.

A chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop from the west late this afternoon into this evening overspreading the TAF sites. Ceilings will lower with MVFR ceilings developing after 04Z from west to east. A brief period of IFR ceilings is possible late tonight into early Tuesday but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF/s at this time.

Southerly winds will gust in to the 20 to 25 knot range this afternoon and then shift to the northwest around 10 kts late tonight/early Tuesday with the passage of a cold front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible into Tuesday morning.
MVFR to IFR ceilings possible Tuesday morning with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into Tuesday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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