Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 5:08 PM   Moonset 3:29 AM

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FXUS61 KILN 200728 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 328 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected today, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler conditions are in store for the end of workweek, although there may be additional chances for showers and storms by Friday into the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Earlier convection in far NW stretches of the ILN FA has long dissipated, with the convective debris clouds also now thinning out, per latest satellite imagery. This has yielded mainly clear skies, with just a FEW/SCT cirrus from time-to-time, especially near/N of the OH Rvr.

Temps will dip into the lower 60s for most spots by daybreak, with a few upper 50s still possible in rural/sheltered locales.
Any fog development should be confined to the larger river valley spots, with abundant sunshine expected to start the day for most in the local area.

A FEW/SCT diurnally-driven Cu will sprout about once again for the afternoon, but the potential for a stray SHRA/TSRA is once again very low. Through the afternoon/early evening, the best potential for a rogue SHRA/TSRA will be in far nrn parts of the local area, perhaps near Logan/Hardin/Union Counties in Ohio between about 18z-23z. In fact, the best chance may once again evolve in parts of WC OH after sunset into the nighttime period tonight, but even this potential is still quite low.

The main item of interest for today will again be the unseasonably warm conditions, with highs reaching into the upper 80s for many. Suppose that the 90-degree mark will be within reach for the typical warm spots about the area. While it is not expected that the standing daily record highs at Cincinnati/Columbus/Dayton of 92/91/91, respectively, are in jeopardy, it isn't out of the realm of possibilities to get very close to tying a record, especially at Columbus/Dayton.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
While the short term period is not expected to be active, there will be /some/ activity to keep an eye on from time to time. The first of this will be associated with a weakening S/W approaching from the W this evening, moving into the local area overnight. There may be one or more small clusters of weakening convection that make their way into the local area (specifically WC OH) around/after midnight, but confidence on maintenance of this activity with eastward extent is fairly low. Do think that some of the same areas that saw some ISO/SCT convection earlier this evening will be the favored areas once again, especially late this evening/early overnight from WC into central OH. Have included a slight chance PoP in these areas to account for this potential as the radar will most likely not be completely clear into early tonight.

Otherwise, expect another warm and humid overnight period with temps dipping into the mid 60s.

Another /very/ warm day is on tap Tuesday, which may end up being the warmest day of the week. In fact, would expect that the best chance to hit the 90-degree mark for the first time of the year will be Tuesday as midlevel ridging will briefly build in once again (especially across the wrn parts of the area) as the potent S/W ejects to the NE through the upper Midwest. While there will be slight chance for a few afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA in central OH as remnants of the weak S/W linger, most areas should stay dry once again. Highs top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees amidst a subtle strengthening in the LL southwesterly flow and a mix of sun and clouds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
There is an uncommonly high degree of uncertainty for the day 3/4 forecast. In general, strong low pressure will be lifting northeast into the Upper Midwest to start the period Tuesday night, while a high-amplitude ridge is centered over the United States Eastern Seaboard. At this time, guidance is struggling with how much progress the low and its associated cold front make into the ridge for mid-week.

Looking at the European ensemble, quite a few members show little forcing and only isolated PoPs heading into Wednesday morning, with most showing some convection developing from midday into the afternoon well ahead of a lagging cold front. Severe weather potential is also uncertain... but it appears the best upper level support for organized thunderstorms remains to our southwest and west, with maybe some threat spreading into east-central Indiana and west-central Ohio on Wednesday. Due to this, will keep a mention in the HWO with low-end confidence at this time.

There will likely be showers and a few storms Wednesday night into the day on Thursday depending on the progress of the slow-moving cold front. The ECMWF is most progressive with the system (less PoPs on Thursday) while the GFS slows things down (more PoPs on Thursday). Either way, most guidance stalls the front to our south, setting up additional shower and storm potential Friday, especially across our southern counties. In the meantime, Thursday and Friday may have closer to normal temperatures as the mid-level ridge gets shunted a bit to the south and east of our CWA

Sensible weather becomes even more uncertain heading into the weekend. It seems prudent to keep a good chance of precipitation (per the blend) with a stalled front in the area. In fact, both the GFS ensemble and the European ensemble maintain a better than 50% probability of >0.1" QPF through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly tranquil conditions will prevail through daybreak as the only item of interest will be the development of some river valley BR/FG once again at KLUK, with MVFR/IFR VSBYs possible at the site through about 13z. Thereafter, VFR Cu around 5-6kft will sprout about again area-wide for the afternoon before waning in coverage past sunset. There will be some increased cloud cover, and perhaps some ISO convection, approach parts of WC OH toward the end of the TAF period, but this activity should stay NW of even KDAY through 06z.

Light/VRB/calm winds will go more out of the SSW during the daytime, staying generally 6-8kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Wednesday into Thursday morning.
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to linger into Thursday.
Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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Wilmington, OH,