Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 4:49 AM   Moonset 6:30 PM

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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 426 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Fri - N winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Sat night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ400 426 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 062050 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 450 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Overall a very unsettled pattern in place this week. A cold front approaching from the west will work its way through the region tonight before becoming nearly stationary south of Delmarva. Low pressure tracks along the front late tonight through Tuesday morning.
Another area of low pressure passes through the region on Wednesday followed by a stronger low on Thursday. A cold front passes through on Friday. Several disturbances are possible this upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will slowly slide south across the forecast area tonight. With the best Omega and RH across the southern half of the forecast area, PoPs will be highest here for the overnight.

Showers can be expected with embedded thunderstorms. As alluded to, most of the rain should be confined to areas south of Philadelphia, but can't rule out a few showers as far north as the I-78 corridor.

As for rainfall, a quarter to a half inch of rain can be anticipated down around southern New Jersey and Delmarva.

Although there is a cold front expected tonight, fog is once again in the forecast, and it could be dense in spots. Drier air will be slow to move in and there is very little wind accompanying the front.

Overnight lows will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Weak low pressure will be just east of Delaware Tuesday morning.
This will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through at least the daybreak hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease by lunchtime as low pressure moves offshore.
PoPs won't be zero for the remainder of the day, but the most widespread precipitation should be in the morning.

Afternoon highs will be in the 70s.

Another area of low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A warm front extending out from that system will lift towards southwest portions of the forecast area later in the day.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Another area of low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A warm front extending out from that system will lift towards southwest portions of the forecast area Tuesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in the evening and then become likely for most of the region after midnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning as that warm front lifts through the region. Precipitation tapers off by midday Wednesday, and then a warm and humid airmass will be in place. Highs top off in the mid to upper 80s, except for the low 80s in the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey, and in the 70s along the coasts. Surface dew points will be in the upper 50s to low 60s in the afternoon.

Low pressure approaches from the west Wednesday night, and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into portions of southeast Pennsylvania and Delmarva late Wednesday night. As the main surface low tracks towards western New York and Pennsylvania, a secondary low will develop out ahead of this primary low, resulting in more widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms moving into the region Thursday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts north of the region.
Global guidance has indicated some instability as the warm front lifts north, suggesting the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms south of the warm front during the afternoon, but exactly how far north the warm front progresses will greatly determine the coverage of any strong to severe storms in our forecast area. At the moment, it remains too uncertain to mention anything more specific at this time. Even the afternoon high temperatures will be highly variant on where the warm front ends up, with low to mid 60s north of the front and mid to upper 70s south. Showers and storms will taper off Thursday night as the storm system shifts offshore.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front will push through the region Friday afternoon and evening. Yet another round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect the area during that time.

Behind the cold front, surface high pressure builds east.
Several weak disturbances may touch off some afternoon showers on Saturday and Sunday.

Highs will then be in the 60s for southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey and in the low to mid 70s in Delmarva on Friday.
Below normal highs expected for Saturday and Sunday, generally in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...MVFR/VFR conditions are likely to drop to IFR around midnight or so
Fog is possible once again
and it may be dense.
Winds will be light and variable. Higher confidence the terminals see IFR, but lower confidence on how thick or widespread the fog will become.

Tuesday...After some IFR in the morning, visibilities and ceilings are expected to rise into the VFR category. Light E to NE winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions at night in fog and stratus, while VFR conditions overall during the day.
Chances for SHRA/TSRA throughout the period with sub-VFR conditions. More widespread SHRA with scattered TSRA Thursday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Mainly a light south wind with seas 2 to 3 feet
Areas of fog
possibly dense.

Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Light south winds becoming NE 5 to 10 kts. Seas 2 to 4 feet
Areas of morning fog
possibly dense.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in locally higher wind gusts and seas, with biggest impacts coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The latest TWL forecasts have just been issued 5PM Monday. There are not many changes from the earlier fcsts. Tidal ranges increasing this week as the new moon arrives Tuesday evening. Limited onshore flow means that there won't be much in the way of serious flooding concerns, but still minor tidal flooding is possible beginning tomorrow evening and perhaps Wed/Thu evening as well. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued overnight if trends remain.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Manahawkin Creek
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Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:55 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     1.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:03 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manahawkin Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet

Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     -3.28 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     2.87 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:31 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:11 PM EDT     -3.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     3.24 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots

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