Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ship Bottom, NJ

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Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:34 PM EDT (16:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 935 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms late this morning, then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of tstms early in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of tstms until early morning. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 935 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will move into the region today and this evening, stalling just south of our area Sunday. SEveral waves of low pressure will move along the stalled boundary through the weekend and into early next week. The stalled front will lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west from Thursday through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ship Bottom , NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 181343
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
943 am edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will move into the region today and this evening,
stalling just south of our area Sunday. Several waves of low
pressure will move along the stalled boundary through the
weekend and into early next week. The stalled front will lift
northward as a warm front on Tuesday, followed by a cold front
on Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the west from
Thursday through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Another day of potential heavy rainfall and flooding as several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area.

A surface trough remains in place across the area this morning,
and will remain nearly stationary through the day. A couple of
short waves vorticity impulses will continue to move across the
area, enhancing lift near the surface trough which will allow
for some scattered showers to continue through this morning.

The main threat for heavy rainfall will begin this afternoon
into this evening as a cold front approaches the area from the
northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more
widespread as the front approaches and moves across the area.

With pw values remaining around 2 inches, heavy rainfall will
likely occur. Those areas that received heavy rainfall on
Friday, as well as the more urbanized i-95 corridor will be
particularly susceptible to flash flooding. Therefore we have
issued a flash flood watch for eastern pennsylvania, much of new
jersey, and northern delaware and maryland; basically along and
north of the i-95 corridor.

There will be plenty on instability for thunderstorms to
develop across the area through today. However, there is limited
shear and the flow aloft is fairly weak. So while there could
be a few strong thunderstorms, mainly due to the instability, we
do not expect much in the way of severe weather this afternoon.

Before the cold front and showers thunderstorms approach later
this afternoon, temperatures will warm well into the mid-upper
80s, and low 90s for some areas. However, heat index values are
not expected to reach advisory levels at this time across the
area.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the area
this evening as a cold front moves across the area. However, as
the cold front continues to move southward through the evening
and overnight, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
wane some. Therefore the flash flood watch will remain in effect
through midnight. While the shower activity wanes overnight, it
showers may not completely drop off as there will continue to
be a couple of more short wave vorticity impulses overnight. So
we will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms through the
night, although the threat for flooding diminishes overnight.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Sunday through Monday... The cold fronts forward progress starts
to slow down by Sunday and the front will stall over or just
south of our area. For now, the guidance keeps the front just
south of the region but there is potential for it to wobble a
bit as it remains nearby through Monday.

Several waves of low pressure will travel along the stalled boundary
on Sunday and Monday. This will keep us in a now very familiar and
unsettled pattern to end the weekend and start the week. A chance
for showers and thunderstorms will exist through Monday, with the
potential for heavy rainfall to occur as pwats remain around 2
inches on Sunday. Expect pwats to decrease some for Monday, down to
around 1.25-1.50 inches as some drier air pushes down from the north
in response to high pressure building across new england. Conditions
across the region remain fairly wet as we have not had very many
days where significant drying can occur. So this will once again
mean that there will be the potential for flooding across our
already saturated region.

An upper trough will dig down and move through the region late
Sunday through Monday. Some cooler air will be brought southward and
that should help to keep Sunday cooler than it has been of late.

However, it is short lived as the airmass will start to modify and
warm for Monday. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Sunday, some
mid 80s possible in southern delaware due to the proximity to the
stalled boundary. Generally expect highs in the lower 80s for
Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday... An area of low pressure will start to
organize over the midwestern states and track towards the great
lakes region early in the week. As this low makes its move towards
upstate new york eastern canada, it will start to push the stalled
boundary to the north as a warm front.

There is not a lot of instability on Tuesday as the front moves
through. However, pwats remain high and the lift from the front may
be just enough to allow for some convection to develop. Will
continue to mention a slight chance for thunder through Tuesday.

The low continues to pull northward into eastern canada and as it
moves along, it will drag a cold front towards and then through our
region on Wednesday. A secondary front may push through the region
later on Wednesday. The bulk of the moisture looks to be tied to the
primary cold front so not expecting much precipitation to occur with
the second frontal passage.

Thursday and Friday... High pressure will start to push eastward and
into our area on Thursday. Expect conditions to dry out for the end
of the week. However, the only fly in the ointment is the location
of the front that moved through the area on Wednesday. Guidance
shows the boundary stalling offshore which could keep the chance for
some showers mainly across our southern and coastal areas.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Scattered showers will continue at times this morning,
which may temporarily lead to subVFR conditions. Some stratus
is moving through the region this morning (around 700ft) but is
transient and should clear relatively quickly through this
morning. Otherwise, expectVFR conditions to prevail through
this morning and into the early afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are more likely this afternoon into
this evening as a cold front approaches.VFR conditions will
continue outside of the showers and thunderstorms. However, sub
vfr conditions will occur as the showers and thunderstorms move
across the TAF sites. The heaviest thunderstorms activity is
expected after 19z-20z.

Winds today will generally be south to southwest 5-10 knots
early, shifting to more westerly later today.

Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
through the evening hours. GenerallyVFR conditions are expected
outside of the showers and thunderstorms. However, subVFR
conditions remain possible as the showers and thunderstorms
move across the TAF sites. Shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to wane during the overnight hours.

Ceilings are expected to lower later in the overnight period,
and may lower to MVFR or even ifr for some areas. Winds will
become northwest behind the cold front, before shifting to
northeast overnight with speeds around 5 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday... Chance for showers and thunderstorms
with MVFR ifr conditions possible. Light winds through the
overnight periods with northeast around 5 to 10 knots through
Sunday and Monday. Gusts up to 20 knots possible on Sunday.

Tuesday... Chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms with
MVFR ifr conditions possible. East to southeast winds around 5 to 10
knots.

Wednesday... Chance for showers and thunderstorms with MVFR ifr
conditions possible. West to southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Marine
Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels today and
tonight across the area. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will occur through today and tonight which will
lead to locally higher winds and waves.

A cold front will move across the area this evening and tonight
which will shift winds to the northwest then northeast
overnight with gusts around 20 knots possible.

Outlook...

Sunday... Seas and winds will increase as a boundary remains
stalled south of the area waters. Winds may gust near 25 knots
Sunday afternoon. Seas will rise to near 5 feet by mid morning
on Sunday. A small craft advisory may be needed. Additionally, a
chance for showers and thunderstorms will produce locally
higher winds and waves.

Monday... Seas are expected to subside early and remain below 5 feet
through Monday. Winds will remain below small craft advisory
criteria.

Tuesday through Wednesday... Conditions expected to remain below
small craft advisory criteria. Winds may gust around 20 knots
through the afternoons on each day.

Rip currents...

a low risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is expected
to continue today. However, lightning will be a concern through
the day as well.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for paz054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for njz001-007>010-012>020-026-027.

De... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for dez001.

Md... Flash flood watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this
evening for mdz008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Robertson meola
short term... Robertson
long term... Meola
aviation... Robertson meola
marine... Robertson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 16 mi64 min SW 5.1 74°F 1011 hPa67°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi40 min 86°F 78°F1011.6 hPa
44091 24 mi94 min 79°F3 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi34 min W 8.9 G 12 82°F 73°F1011.2 hPa (-0.9)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi58 min W 7 G 8 80°F 73°F1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi38 minWSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds85°F75°F72%1011.7 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ24 mi40 minW 810.00 miFair86°F73°F67%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW6NW7W7W8W6W5SW3S3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4W6--SW7
2 days agoW12W10W10NW11W9W8W4SW3W4SW4W5W5SW5W6W5W4W4W3CalmW5W3W5W63

Tide / Current Tables for Manahawkin Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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Manahawkin Creek
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Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 04:49 AM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:24 PM EDT     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.60.91.21.21.110.70.50.40.20.20.20.50.81.21.41.41.210.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:10 AM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 04:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:13 AM EDT     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:33 PM EDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:51 PM EDT     -2.12 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.81.610.2-0.5-1.1-1.7-2.1-1.9-10.11.21.921.50.8-0-0.7-1.3-1.9-2.1-1.7-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.