Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ship Bottom, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:41PM Friday November 16, 2018 3:47 PM EST (20:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:33PMMoonset 12:40AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 338 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E early in the afternoon, then becoming S late. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ400 338 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure is forecast to build to our west on Saturday before weakening Saturday night as a weak cold front moves across the area. High pressure builds to our north Sunday, before another frontal system moves across the area Sunday night into Monday. Yet another frontal system is possible around Tuesday, with high pressure for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ship Bottom , NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 161734
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1234 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Strong low pressure off the new england coast this morning will
move northeastward, reaching nova scotia this evening. High
pressure is expected to build into our region from the west for
Saturday and Sunday. A cold front approaching from the northwest
is anticipated to arrive on Sunday night with another cold
front following on Tuesday. High pressure is expected for
Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The coastal storm continues to wrap up and pull away from the
region. Rains snow showers N E are diminishing. Headlines have
been taken down. Gusty W to NW winds up to 30 mph will continue
into the afternoon.

We are expecting a decrease in cloud cover today as the storm
moves farther away from our region.

Maximum temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 40s, with
readings not getting above the 30s in the elevated terrain of
the poconos and far northern new jersey.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Dry air will continue to build into our region from the west
for tonight. We are anticipating a mostly clear sky along with
a west wind around 5 to 10 mph.

Low temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s to
the lower 30s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
We move into a relatively quieter pattern following the coastal
storm. The weekend looks fairly tranquil.

The strong area of low pressure associated with the coastal
storm that has contributed to the first real blast of winter
weather will continue to move away to our northeast, leading to
a cool, but fall-like stretch of weather Saturday and Sunday.

Cloud cover to the north across the poconos and northern new
jersey Saturday will slowly build southward through the weekend,
but conditions will remain dry. A subtle cold front surface
trough will move across the area Saturday afternoon, but we will
remain dry across the forecast area. While highs will still be
about ten degrees below average, it will feel nice compared to
today's well-below average high temperatures.

A cold front is expected to reach our region on Sunday night.

There may be some light snow and rain showers with the feature
from Sunday into Monday, mainly in eastern pennsylvania, and in
northern and central new jersey. High pressure should return for
the middle of the new week, building just to our south.

The normal high temperatures for the period range from the
middle 40s in the elevated terrain of the poconos to the middle
50s on the coastal plain. Highs will remain on the cool side
throughout the area next week, with Monday likely being the
warmest day ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the
upper 30s in the poconos to low 50s over southern delaware.

Highs look remain generally below 50 across the forecast area
throughout the remainder of next week.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Lingering MVFR across the terminals with some daytime sc
developing across the area. Improvement toVFR is expected after
21z or 22z in most areas. West northwest wind 15 to 25 knots
with gusts into the 30s early then settling back later this
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR, mainly clear. West wind 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR conditions.

Sunday-Monday...VFR conditions expected with a chance of
showers.

Monday night-Tuesday... GenerallyVFR conditions expected.

Marine
The last gale on delaware bat was lowered and a SCA flag issued
until daybreak Saturday.

A gale warning is in effect until 4:00 pm for the coastal waters
of new jersey and delaware. Wind speeds will be slow to decrease
as the strong area of low pressure moves northeastward and away
from our region. The wind direction on our waters will settle
into the west northwest.

Outlook...

Saturday-Tuesday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with west-northwest winds 10-15 knots.

Tides coastal flooding
The storm surge increased to 3+ feet along the central and
northern parts of the new jersey coast out ahead of the coastal
storm overnight. As a result, there was minor coastal flooding
with some localized moderate flooding.

Fortunately, the astronomical tides are quite low as we are at
the first quarter phase of the moon. If the 3+ foot surge took
place around the time of a new or full moon, we would have been
experiencing moderate to major flooding.

The overnight high tide should be the only cycle of concern.

The wind is forecast to be westerly for this afternoon's high
tide, pushing water away from the coast.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Saturday for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Iovino
near term... Iovino po
short term... Iovino
long term... Davis iovino
aviation... Iovino robertson po
marine... Iovino robertson po
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 16 mi77 min WSW 11 43°F 1009 hPa31°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi29 min 47°F 53°F1010.9 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 45 mi29 min WNW 16 G 23 42°F 42°F1010.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi71 min WNW 12 G 19 42°F 42°F1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi51 minWNW 17 G 2010.00 miOvercast45°F35°F68%1010.2 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ24 mi53 minWNW 13 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F35°F63%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN6NW5N7N3N5N6
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N7N6N5N4N6N5N5NE8NE6N7N5N5E7E8E6E6
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2 days agoNW15
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NW10NW6W5W7W9W6W9NW8NW6NW5W3NW9NW8NW10NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for Manahawkin Drawbridge, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey
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Manahawkin Drawbridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:46 AM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:52 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:58 PM EST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.60.91110.80.70.50.40.40.30.50.70.91.11.21.110.80.60.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:02 AM EST     1.25 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:16 PM EST     1.56 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:39 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:38 PM EST     -1.85 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:27 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.210.50-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.50.41.11.51.40.90.3-0.4-0.9-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.3-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.