Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beach Haven West, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:52PM Saturday September 23, 2017 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:01AMMoonset 9:05PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1227 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 6 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 5 ft. Mainly in E swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 5 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Sun night..E winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 6 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 17 seconds.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 16 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 11 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 16 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 12 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 11 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 1227 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The remnant low of jose, currently southeast of nantucket island, will continue to weaken and drift offshore through the weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure remains entrenched over the northeast before moving offshore by the middle of the week. Hurricane maria will track northward over the atlantic waters, approaching the mid- atlantic coast on Wednesday, then curving out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through the region. High pressure builds east to close out the week. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beach Haven West, NJ
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location: 39.65, -74.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231414
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1014 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
The remnant low of jose, currently southeast of nantucket
island, will continue to weaken and drift offshore through the
weekend. Meanwhile, high pressure remains entrenched over the
northeast before moving offshore by the middle of the week.

Hurricane maria will track northward over the atlantic waters,
approaching the mid-atlantic coast on Wednesday, then curving
out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through the
region. High pressure builds east to close out the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
No changes needed to the ongoing fcst.

The impressively resilient jose will continue its slow decay
southeast of CAPE cod today as a 590+ dam 500-mb ridge continues
to build in the great lakes region. Meanwhile, hurricane maria
will continue to be drawn northward toward the weakness in the
ridge provided by jose. More on maria in the long-term
discussion. In the near term, the midlevel ridging will be our
region's dominant player, as jose will remain well away from the
coast. Subsidence downstream of the ridge will generate a
nearly cloud-free sky by afternoon, and a northerly to
northwesterly surface flow will provide sufficient mixing and
downsloping (combined with a notable lack of cold-air advection)
to warm temperatures a few degrees more from those seen Friday.

The near-surface drying will prevent apparent temperatures heat
indices from separating much from ambient temperatures, which
are forecast to reach the 80s across the area (mid to
potentially upper 80s in the urban corridor; around 80 in the
southern poconos and along the immediate coast).

The surface pressure gradient will diminish somewhat today as
jose drifts a bit more offshore. As such, there is a good chance
for the sea breeze to move inland a bit this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Sunday
As jose drifts a bit more offshore tonight, the surface ridge
to our west will edge eastward into our region. This will allow
winds to relax after dark. Meanwhile, surface dew points will be
a few degrees higher than the previous night (perhaps aided to
some degree by progression of a vort MAX across eastern canada,
with subtle moist-air advection occurring southeastward around
the great lakes appalachians ridge). As temperatures nocturnally
decline, surface decoupling should allow a bit more patchy fog
to develop than that seen Friday night. Have included mention in
the grids for the particularly susceptible valley locations
northwest of the fall line and in the pine barrens of new
jersey.

Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than those observed
Friday night as well, generally around 60 in the southern
poconos to around 70 in the philadelphia metropolitan area --
well above average for this time of year.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Surface high pressure will be firmly entrenched over the region
on Sunday before lifting to the north and east on Monday. Sunny
skies with very warm temperatures will be in place with highs
topping off in the upper 80s to low 90s on Sunday, and then
slightly cooler on Monday as a northeast flow takes place. This
will usher slightly cooler temperatures across the region,
especially for right along the coast, where highs will be in the
upper 70s to around 80.

During this time, hurricane maria will lift to the north over
the western atlantic waters. Latest model runs, and the
ensembles reflect this as well, show maria taking a bit more of
a western track, possibly approaching the east coast of north
carolina Tuesday into Wednesday. Outer rain bands associated
with maria will lift to the north, and spreading from east to
west into the region during this time. Please see the forecast
discussion from the national hurricane center for the latest
information on the track and forecast.

A cold front moves across the region Wednesday, followed by
another cold front on Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday.

During this time, showers and possible thunderstorms will
develop with the passage of each cold front. Temperatures drop
off to the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday and Thursday, and then
much cooler weather returns for Friday with highs in the low
70s.

The week starts off with temperatures well above normal, then
closes with temperatures below normal.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Vfr through tonight. Light variable winds will become northerly
around or below 10 kts during the day. Very few clouds are
expected by late morning. Patchy fog may occur in more
susceptible valley locations tonight (i.E., krdg, kabe, and
kmiv), but confidence is too low and occurrence too transient
for mention in the tafs at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...VFR conditions with NE winds less than
10 kt.

Tuesday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected, but
there may be some showers each day. NE winds as high as 10-15
kt.

Marine
Small craft advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect for
the atlantic coastal waters, though conditions may become
marginal (i.E., seas may subside slightly below 5 feet for a
time), especially for the northern central new jersey coastal
marine zones, this afternoon and tonight. Winds should remain
below advisory criteria through tonight, though northerly
breezes may gust 15-20 kts during the day. Winds may become more
variable late this afternoon into this evening before re-
establishing a primarily northerly direction tonight. Long-
period easterly swells should continue through tonight, with
components both from maria (southeast) and the remains of jose
(northeast) potentially generating some undesirably choppy
conditions today tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday... Elevated seas due to swells
associated hurricane maria will impact the waters during this
time. Seas 4-6 feet Sunday will gradually build to 8-12 feet
Tuesday and Wednesday. NE winds will range from 10-15 kt,
increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt for the ocean
waters Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rip currents...

swells from the remains of jose will continue today (generally
4 to 6 feet from the northeast with a period of 9-10 seconds),
but with time, swells from maria will become a bigger player
(generally 2-3 feet from the southeast with a period of 13-16
seconds). For today, this could create rather chaotic surf.

Though swell heights will likely be lower than seen recently,
the combined effects of jose and maria will maintain at least a
moderate risk of dangerous rip currents today. If entering the
surf zone, be especially cautious today. Only swim in the
presence of lifeguards beach patrols, and heed the advice of
local officials.

Outlook...

a prolonged period of moderate to high risk for the development
of dangerous and life threatening rip currents is on tap for
most of the upcoming week due to swells emanating from hurricane
maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Spotty minor flooding may occur with this morning's high tide
thanks to the continued influence from jose, but any flooding is
not expected to be widespread enough or severe enough for
issuance of an advisory. Forecasts for this evening's high tide
are even lower.

Climate
With high temperatures making a run at 90 Sunday and Monday
across the region, some record high temperatures may be tied or
broken. The highest chances are on Monday where all locations
but georgetown are expected to be within three degrees of a
record.

Here are the records for both days.

Sunday
acy-92(2010)
phl 95(1970)
ilg-92(2010)
abe-92(1970)
ttn-92(1970)
ged-97(2010)
rdg-95(1970)
mpo-85(2010)
Monday
acy-91(1970)
phl-92(1970)
ilg-93(1970)
abe-92(1970)
ttn-92(1970)
ged-92(2010 and 1970)
rdg-92(1970)
mpo-85(1970)

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Sunday
for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... Mps
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps
tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 15 mi91 min NNW 5.1 82°F 1017 hPa65°F
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 23 mi43 min 74°F 73°F1017.2 hPa
44091 25 mi31 min 70°F5 ft
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi43 min NE 7 G 11 84°F 74°F1017.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi85 min 81°F 73°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ20 mi65 minNE 12 G 1510.00 miFair83°F64°F53%1017.9 hPa
Atlantic City, Atlantic City International Airport, NJ23 mi67 minNNE 1010.00 miFair84°F64°F53%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN13
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N9NW9NW5NW5N5N6NW5N5N6N5N5NW6NW6N6N6NW6N5N7N7N8N10
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1 day agoN11N9N7N6N4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW4NW6N6NW4NW5N6NW7NW8N13
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2 days ago--N8N10N14N7N7N7NW5N4NW3NW4NW6NW5NW5NW5NW6NW6NW8NW8NW7NW7N11N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Mill Creek, 1 n.mi. above entrance, New Jersey
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Mill Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:17 PM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.81.71.41.10.70.40.100.20.71.21.71.91.91.61.30.90.60.30.10.10.51

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:34 AM EDT     -2.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:56 AM EDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:56 PM EDT     -2.54 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:19 PM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9-0.2-1.1-1.9-2.5-2.5-1.7-0.40.92.12.521.20.1-0.9-1.7-2.3-2.5-2.1-10.31.52.22

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.