Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 4:53 AM   Moonset 6:41 PM

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FXUS65 KREV 060932 AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 232 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS

While the region sees breezy to gusty westerly winds today with a cold front passage, northern portions of the region closer to the Oregon border may see some chances for showers late this afternoon and into the evening with the remainder of the region looks to stay dry. Dry weather persists for the rest of the week for the region along with a slight warming trend and lighter winds as higher pressure builds into the western U.S.

DISCUSSION

The latest RAP analysis shows the CWA being underneath the rear portion of a slightly negatively tilted upper air trough over the Rocky Mountains allowing for a northwesterly flow aloft this morning. Current satellite imagery along with surface observations report back a broken to overcast ceiling of low to mid-level clouds in the region along with mostly dry conditions. Going through the rest of today, ensemble guidance shows the northwesterly flow pretty much continuing over the CWA as it remains under the western portion of the trough. There also looks to be a shortwave trough passing through the flow over southern OR during the late afternoon and evening. With this upper air pattern, a cold front is anticipated to move through the region from the northwest beginning in the late afternoon and pass through the remainder of the region going through the evening.
Models are showing northern portions of Washoe and Lassen Counties as well as western Modoc County with about a 20-50% chance of light rain showers beginning in the late afternoon with the better chances closer to the OR border. Going into the night: precipitation may chance to light snow with temperatures cooling, but a light dusting to maybe a few tenths of an inch of snowfall at most are expected. The mixed precipitation chances move into northeastern Pershing county around midnight before departing by mid Tuesday morning. The latest QPF values in these areas that see precipitation expect to be less than a tenth of an inch. While the remainder of the CWA looks to be mostly dry, the cold front will usher in some breezy to gusty westerly winds beginning in the afternoon and going into the evening. Currently seeing wind gusts ranging around 30-40 mph with higher elevations having slightly increased gusts. People planning on recreating near Pyramid Lake today may be dealing with choppy water conditions with winds gusting close to 30 mph. While winds are expected to decrease going into the night, the latest NAM run continues to show the possibility for some freezing fog after midnight into Tuesday morning in the Sierra and Martis Valleys.

From Tuesday onward, ensemble guidance predicts the northwesterly upper air flow for CWA to continue on Tuesday. Models do show an upper air low over the Northern Plains region starting to reorient the general upper air pattern causing a northerly flow over the CWA on Wednesday. On Thursday, models depict the flow over the CWA turning northeasterly with an upper air low developing over the AZ/UT border that resides there into Friday while a ridge moves over the northwestern CONUS. By Friday evening, forecast guidance shows the southwestern low diminishing allowing for the ridge over the western CONUS to mostly dominate the region on Saturday going into Sunday. With this upper air pattern in place, the region looks to stay on the dry side for the rest of the week at this time. The coolest daytime high temperatures are seen on Tuesday following the previous day's cold front passage, but temperatures start to trend warmer through the remainder of the week with portions of the region seeing the return of 70s by Thursday and the introduction of daytime highs in the 80s potentially by the weekend with high pressure in the western CONUS allowing for minimal cloud cover to let diurnal heating increase the temperatures. -078

AVIATION

VFR conditions are anticipated for most of the REV terminals going through today. Exceptions include KTRK and KTVL which see some MVFR ceilings through around 11Z-12Z. KTRK may also see some vicinity fog this morning between 11Z-15Z. While dry conditions are anticipated for today, models show winds increasing and gusting up to around 20- 25 kts generally from the west around 19Z-20Z with a cold front moving through the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds are then anticipated to diminish around 03Z-06Z at most REV terminals. -078

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...None.
CA...None.

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