Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Englewood, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday June 21, 2018 8:22 AM MDT (14:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:22PMMoonset 12:48AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Englewood, CO
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location: 39.68, -105     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 210929
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
329 am mdt Thu jun 21 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 329 am mdt Thu jun 21 2018
it will be warmer today with the return of warm advection under a
flat ridge of high pressure. Mostly sunny skies will prevail, but
we'll have to monitor potential of a few thunderstorms late this
afternoon into tonight. This chance of storms hinges largely on
the approach of another short wave. The upper level ridge axis
will shift east, and allow weak q-g lift to arrive by this
evening. The airmass will generally be capped off through most of
the afternoon, but expect the cap to weaken sufficiently during
peak heating over the foothills and near the wyoming border to
allow a couple storms to develop. With the approach of the weak
short wave and lift this evening, we are seeing more signs that a
few of these will be able to survive and move east southeast
across the plains this evening. The latest href (high resolution
ensemble forecasts) also point in this direction, so we have
increased the pops a bit for the late afternoon and evening hours
mainly to the north of denver for now where cap is weakest, but
can't totally rule out something sneaking into denver either at
this point.

One or two storms could be strong to severe given MLCAPE around
1000-1200 j kg where the deeper moisture is more apt to hold in,
roughly along north of a fort collins-greeley-fort morgan-akron
line. Large hail would be the primary threat from storms. A couple
storms could linger past midnight with the weak lift ahead of the
short wave.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 329 am mdt Thu jun 21 2018
a weak upper level trough in NW flow aloft will move across the area
on fri. At the sfc, a lee trough will be located along the front
range with south to southeast low lvl flow across the plains.

Mlcape by aftn is fcst to be in the 1000-1500 range across the
plains. As the weak upper level trough moves across there will be
a chc of storms across the plains by aftn. With decent shear in
place a few svr storms will be possible. As for highs, readings
will be in the 80s across nern co. For Fri night a weak fnt will
move across the plains in the evening as an upper level jet is
over the area. As a result there will be some potential for
nocturnal convection across portions of the plains.

On Sat a flat upper level ridge will develop ahead of a stronger
upper level trough moving southeast from the northwestern us.

Overall there will be a decrease in moisture with less
instability, so TSTM coverage will by more isold and confined
mainly to the higher terrain. Highs on Sat will remain in the 80s
across the plains.

For Sat night through Sun a rather stg upper level trough will move
into the region. Ahead of this feature the flow aloft will become
very diffluent Sat night into Sun with both models showing favorable
qg ascent developing. Thus would expect TSTM chances to increase
late Sat night into Sun morning across portions of nern co with some
threat of heavy rainfall. During the day on Sun there are some
differences between the ECMWF and gfs. The ECMWF has a cold front
movng across all of the plains by 12z Sun while the GFS has stg sely
low level flow, as it has sfc low pres extending from SRN wy into
ern co. In addition the ECMWF has the main upper level low over
srn wy while the GFS has it further south over NRN co. As a result
there are substantial differences with respect to pcpn especially
across the plains. The ECMWF has the best potential for
significant pcpn late Sat night thru midday Sun while the GFS has
the highest potential Sun aftn into Sun night. At this point
really hard to say which solution will end up being right so will
continue to go with a blended solution.

On Mon the ECMWF moves the upper level low into WRN NE while the gfs
has the low over nern co. As a result the GFS continues to generate
more pcpn across portions of the plains while the ECMWF basically
has no pcpn due to the further northward placement of the upper
level low. By Tue both models agree the main upper level will move
eastward with a drier and more stable airmass across the area.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 329 am mdt Thu jun 21 2018
vfr conditions will remain in place through tonight. Winds may
become light variable through 16z this morning, before switching
to northeasterly around 10 knots through most of the afternoon.

There is only a 10% chance of seeing a passing thunderstorm 00z-
06z tonight.

Fire weather
Issued at 329 am mdt Thu jun 21 2018
elevated fire danger will develop over lower elevations of park
county Friday afternoon and again Saturday afternoon.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Short term... Barjenbruch
long term... Rpk
aviation... Barjenbruch
fire weather... Rpk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi29 minW 310.00 miA Few Clouds60°F50°F70%1017.4 hPa
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO14 mi84 minSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds56°F50°F82%1017.1 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO17 mi32 minN 430.00 miClear61°F53°F77%1022.7 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO22 mi29 minWSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds62°F50°F65%1015.3 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO23 mi28 minNE 310.00 miFair60°F52°F75%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from APA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N6N96
G14
N9N11
G15
5
G14
NE10
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NE7E9NE7
G15
NE8NE7E7SE4S4S4S4SE5S5E7S3NW3W3
1 day agoS9S11
G16
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G18
SE12
G21
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G20
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NE11
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E8
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NE7N15
G26
NE17
G28
N16NW11NW5NE3N5CalmS4CalmS33S7S7S3
2 days agoN4CalmCalmE55N9
G14
N12NE10
G18
E10NW7
G15
NW16N15
G21
NW9N6N6NE8NE8E8E8
G17
NE6
G14
E13SE8S8S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.