Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Englewood, CO
May 5, 2024 10:31 PM MDT (04:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:29 AM Moonset 4:24 PM |
Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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FXUS65 KBOU 060214 AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 814 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very active weather pattern through the next couple days, with Winter Weather, Fire Weather, and High Wind highlights in effect
- Snow and blowing snow develops across the high country late tonight and continues through Tuesday. Travel impacts likely, especially across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass.
- Widespread gusty winds developing tonight and continue through at least Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected across the higher Foothills.
- Cool and unsettled weather along with much lighter winds Thursday through Saturday.
UPDATE
Issued at 806 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Main change at this hour is for more cloud cover overnight, as the dry slot with clearing of the high clouds won't arrive until late tonight. Winds will be decreasing a bit in the Denver area as they go more south to southwest; they should start to pick up again in the pre dawn hours with the strong west winds developing around sunrise. Also reduced PoPs outside of the mountains. There's a lot of weak convection over western Colorado but it won't make much eastward progress and low level air just east of the Front Range is still pretty dry.
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
A busy, mostly windy, short term forecast across our CWA A potent trough axis is expected to swing across the region over the next 36 hours, leading to quite a few different hazards across the state.
GOES water vapor satellite and RAP mesoanalysis show the center of the upper trough near northern Nevada this afternoon... and this will quickly become negatively tilted as it ejects north of the forecast area into the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, broad but strong south/southwesterly flow has developed, and widespread gusty winds have developed across most of the lower elevations, except for a sliver of the western metro/I-25 corridor where the deeper mixing has yet to kick in. Today's wind is just a preview of the next few days, while the warmer temperatures will be a passing memory by tomorrow.
Later tonight, mountain snow is expected to develop as the flow aloft turns more westerly and better moisture advects into the high country. Guidance has gradually become a bit more bullish on both the snow and wind potential, and we've expanded the Winter Weather Advisories to the I-70 and northern mountain corridors where a few inches of wind blown snow looks likely tonight into tomorrow. There's some uncertainty with regards to impacts given the current warm temperatures and the early May sun angle, but there will likely be a period of difficult travel across the mountain passes during the peak snowfall rates late tonight/early Monday AM.
Monday morning will also feature an increase in winds as a bora event develops. Models show good cold air advection/pressure rises behind the passing trough axis with mid-level/ridgetop flow near 50kt. Winds will quickly increase across the foothills and adjacent plains early in the day and continue through at least the evening hours. There is still some question as to the spatial extent and duration of the strongest winds, with the HRRR notably stronger across the lower foothills and the typical very windy spots near Boulder/Highway 93. Machine-learning guidance from CSU is also split close to 50/50 on if we see higher wind gusts this far east (though their criteria is slightly different than ours).
Have opted for a High Wind Warning in the foothills and will message the potential for stronger gusts in the immediately adjacent plains. Further east, wind gusts will still be fairly strong (30-50 mph) but not quite at the threshold for any highlights.
Tomorrow will also be cooler than the past couple of days, with high temperatures likely remaining in the upper 50s to perhaps the low 60s across the plains. Still, the airmass is dry enough south of I-70 for some localized critical fire weather concerns... see the fire section below for more details.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday night through Tuesday evening, a large upper level storm system will be centered over the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Plains States with a strong westerly flow aloft over Central Colorado. Favorable orographic flow combined with decent QG lift and occasional upper level disturbances should result in periods of snow across the mountains. The exception may be early Tuesday morning when moisture and QG lift may be minimized. Overall, the snow should be generally light due to a lack of cold air advection.
However, with a 115KT+ upper jet over the southern sections of the CWA, can't rule out some localized heavier bands. This pattern will also bring breezy to windy conditions to the high country with areas of blowing snow possible, especially over mountain passes. The strongest winds are expected across the Front Range Mountains/foothills and over the Cheyenne Ridge Monday night with gusts up to 75 mph possible over wind-prone areas.
Further east across the plains it will be mostly dry, cool and windy. The winds should be strongest along and near the foothills Monday night with gusts to 55 mph and most widespread Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 45 mph. The gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and dry fuels may lead to fire weather concerns across Southern Lincoln County Tuesday afternoon and evening. For more details, see the fire weather discussion below.
On Wednesday, the mid an upper level flow over Colorado decreases as the strong upper low over the Northern Great Plains weakens and shifts east into the Upper Midwest. A broad upper trough will still remain over the Western U.S. with lighter winds across the CWA and scattered (30-50%) snow showers possible over the Northern Mountains. However, breezy conditions across much of the forecast area are still expected to continue.
Wednesday night and Thursday, the large elongated upper trough that covers much of the Western and Central U.S. splits as a closed upper low develops over the Intermountain west due to energy rotating around the back side of the trough.
The weak upper low is progged to track across the Southern and Central Rockies Thursday through Saturday. In addition, occasional cold fronts associated with the Central Plains trough are progged to move across Northeastern Colorado as well. The combination of upslope flow and increased moisture behind the fronts and some lift associated with the weak upper low should result in cool and unsettled weather during this period. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Sunday as upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/
Issued at 806 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Crosswinds at KDEN/KAPA Monday are the main issue for the TAFs.
Winds will become southwest this evening with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range at KDEN/KAPA, with lighter speeds at KBJC.
Increasing speeds are expected after 08z, with strong west winds after 11z-12z. West winds gusting to around 40 knots are expected most of the day, which will create crosswind issues at KDEN and KAPA. It currently looks like the direction will remain pretty close to due west most of the day. There is a chance (30%) of winds becoming more WNW and/or decreasing speeds after 21z, this is more likely after 00z. VFR conditions through Monday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across southern Lincoln county on Monday as dry and very windy conditions develop.
Relative humidity values should fall to 10-15 percent with wind gusts of 45-55 mph at times. Overnight humidity recovery will also struggle to reach 50%... and we may need to continue to extend that into Tuesday/Wednesday.
Gusty winds and lower humidity will be over the southern sections of the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is still some question as to how dry the fuels are due to decent precip in the latter half of April. The only area that didn't receive decent precip was over portions of southern Lincoln county. Thus that would be an area to watch for critical fire conditions in the afternoon and early evening hours.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ031-033-034.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ035-036.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ247.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 814 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Very active weather pattern through the next couple days, with Winter Weather, Fire Weather, and High Wind highlights in effect
- Snow and blowing snow develops across the high country late tonight and continues through Tuesday. Travel impacts likely, especially across the Park Range/Rabbit Ears Pass.
- Widespread gusty winds developing tonight and continue through at least Tuesday, with the strongest winds expected across the higher Foothills.
- Cool and unsettled weather along with much lighter winds Thursday through Saturday.
UPDATE
Issued at 806 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Main change at this hour is for more cloud cover overnight, as the dry slot with clearing of the high clouds won't arrive until late tonight. Winds will be decreasing a bit in the Denver area as they go more south to southwest; they should start to pick up again in the pre dawn hours with the strong west winds developing around sunrise. Also reduced PoPs outside of the mountains. There's a lot of weak convection over western Colorado but it won't make much eastward progress and low level air just east of the Front Range is still pretty dry.
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
A busy, mostly windy, short term forecast across our CWA A potent trough axis is expected to swing across the region over the next 36 hours, leading to quite a few different hazards across the state.
GOES water vapor satellite and RAP mesoanalysis show the center of the upper trough near northern Nevada this afternoon... and this will quickly become negatively tilted as it ejects north of the forecast area into the northern plains. Ahead of this trough, broad but strong south/southwesterly flow has developed, and widespread gusty winds have developed across most of the lower elevations, except for a sliver of the western metro/I-25 corridor where the deeper mixing has yet to kick in. Today's wind is just a preview of the next few days, while the warmer temperatures will be a passing memory by tomorrow.
Later tonight, mountain snow is expected to develop as the flow aloft turns more westerly and better moisture advects into the high country. Guidance has gradually become a bit more bullish on both the snow and wind potential, and we've expanded the Winter Weather Advisories to the I-70 and northern mountain corridors where a few inches of wind blown snow looks likely tonight into tomorrow. There's some uncertainty with regards to impacts given the current warm temperatures and the early May sun angle, but there will likely be a period of difficult travel across the mountain passes during the peak snowfall rates late tonight/early Monday AM.
Monday morning will also feature an increase in winds as a bora event develops. Models show good cold air advection/pressure rises behind the passing trough axis with mid-level/ridgetop flow near 50kt. Winds will quickly increase across the foothills and adjacent plains early in the day and continue through at least the evening hours. There is still some question as to the spatial extent and duration of the strongest winds, with the HRRR notably stronger across the lower foothills and the typical very windy spots near Boulder/Highway 93. Machine-learning guidance from CSU is also split close to 50/50 on if we see higher wind gusts this far east (though their criteria is slightly different than ours).
Have opted for a High Wind Warning in the foothills and will message the potential for stronger gusts in the immediately adjacent plains. Further east, wind gusts will still be fairly strong (30-50 mph) but not quite at the threshold for any highlights.
Tomorrow will also be cooler than the past couple of days, with high temperatures likely remaining in the upper 50s to perhaps the low 60s across the plains. Still, the airmass is dry enough south of I-70 for some localized critical fire weather concerns... see the fire section below for more details.
LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Monday night through Tuesday evening, a large upper level storm system will be centered over the Northern Rockies and Northern Great Plains States with a strong westerly flow aloft over Central Colorado. Favorable orographic flow combined with decent QG lift and occasional upper level disturbances should result in periods of snow across the mountains. The exception may be early Tuesday morning when moisture and QG lift may be minimized. Overall, the snow should be generally light due to a lack of cold air advection.
However, with a 115KT+ upper jet over the southern sections of the CWA, can't rule out some localized heavier bands. This pattern will also bring breezy to windy conditions to the high country with areas of blowing snow possible, especially over mountain passes. The strongest winds are expected across the Front Range Mountains/foothills and over the Cheyenne Ridge Monday night with gusts up to 75 mph possible over wind-prone areas.
Further east across the plains it will be mostly dry, cool and windy. The winds should be strongest along and near the foothills Monday night with gusts to 55 mph and most widespread Tuesday afternoon with gusts to 45 mph. The gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and dry fuels may lead to fire weather concerns across Southern Lincoln County Tuesday afternoon and evening. For more details, see the fire weather discussion below.
On Wednesday, the mid an upper level flow over Colorado decreases as the strong upper low over the Northern Great Plains weakens and shifts east into the Upper Midwest. A broad upper trough will still remain over the Western U.S. with lighter winds across the CWA and scattered (30-50%) snow showers possible over the Northern Mountains. However, breezy conditions across much of the forecast area are still expected to continue.
Wednesday night and Thursday, the large elongated upper trough that covers much of the Western and Central U.S. splits as a closed upper low develops over the Intermountain west due to energy rotating around the back side of the trough.
The weak upper low is progged to track across the Southern and Central Rockies Thursday through Saturday. In addition, occasional cold fronts associated with the Central Plains trough are progged to move across Northeastern Colorado as well. The combination of upslope flow and increased moisture behind the fronts and some lift associated with the weak upper low should result in cool and unsettled weather during this period. Dry and warmer weather is expected on Sunday as upper level high pressure builds over the Rocky Mountain Region.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/
Issued at 806 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Crosswinds at KDEN/KAPA Monday are the main issue for the TAFs.
Winds will become southwest this evening with gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range at KDEN/KAPA, with lighter speeds at KBJC.
Increasing speeds are expected after 08z, with strong west winds after 11z-12z. West winds gusting to around 40 knots are expected most of the day, which will create crosswind issues at KDEN and KAPA. It currently looks like the direction will remain pretty close to due west most of the day. There is a chance (30%) of winds becoming more WNW and/or decreasing speeds after 21z, this is more likely after 00z. VFR conditions through Monday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 309 PM MDT Sun May 5 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are forecast across southern Lincoln county on Monday as dry and very windy conditions develop.
Relative humidity values should fall to 10-15 percent with wind gusts of 45-55 mph at times. Overnight humidity recovery will also struggle to reach 50%... and we may need to continue to extend that into Tuesday/Wednesday.
Gusty winds and lower humidity will be over the southern sections of the plains Tuesday and Wednesday. However, there is still some question as to how dry the fuels are due to decent precip in the latter half of April. The only area that didn't receive decent precip was over portions of southern Lincoln county. Thus that would be an area to watch for critical fire conditions in the afternoon and early evening hours.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ031-033-034.
High Wind Warning from 3 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for COZ035-036.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for COZ247.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KAPA CENTENNIAL,CO | 11 sm | 38 min | SSW 09G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 63°F | 25°F | 24% | 29.57 | |
| KBKF BUCKLEY AFB,CO | 13 sm | 33 min | SSW 19G26 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 66°F | 23°F | 19% | 29.53 | |
| KBJC ROCKY MOUNTAIN METROPOLITAN,CO | 17 sm | 16 min | S 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 27°F | 24% | 29.54 | |
| KDEN DENVER INTL,CO | 21 sm | 38 min | S 16 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 27°F | 24% | 29.55 | |
| KEIK ERIE MUNI,CO | 23 sm | 16 min | S 11 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 28°F | 26% | 29.49 |
Denver/Boulder, CO,
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