Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harvey Cedars, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:49PM Monday September 25, 2017 11:56 PM EDT (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1135 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect through late Tuesday night...
Overnight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 7 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 9 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 10 ft. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 14 seconds.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 9 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 8 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 7 ft, subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 1135 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure across our region will gradually lift northeast as it weakens through midweek. Hurricane maria will remain offshore the outer banks of north carolina through Wednesday, then finally move out to sea, in advance of a cold front moving through our area on Thursday. Another fast moving cold front will trek through our region on Friday, followed by a large dome of high pressure settling over our area early next week. &&

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harvey Cedars , NJ
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location: 39.7, -74.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 260135
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
935 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure across our region will gradually lift northeast as it
weakens through midweek. Hurricane maria will remain offshore the
outer banks of north carolina through Wednesday, then finally move
out to sea, in advance of a cold front moving through our area on
Thursday. Another fast moving cold front treks through our region on
Friday, followed by a large dome of high pressure settling over our
area early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
An area of low clouds and light fog has been moving wward and
has just came onshore the cntrl an SRN nj and de shore areas so
far this . These clouds will continue slowly moving westward
overnight and reaching the philly area for a few hours right
around sunrise. Winds will remain light from the E se. Places
the radiated efficiently this evening should fall into the
60's, with even low 60's in the southern poconos.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
There will be more clouds and patchy fog across the area Tuesday
morning. The greater concentration will be S E if i-95 corridor, but
areas N W of that will still have some fog and low clouds. Guidance
is showing a rather stubborn area of low level moisture remaining
across most areas thru the day. It is therefore difficult to get too
optimistic with regards to how much Sun will be over the area tue.

Mostly cloudy skies S E and partly sunny N W will probably describe
the situation best. High temperatures will be only in the low 80s
s E and mid 80s N w. Winds will continue to be rather gentle from
the SE or e.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
The main forecast challenges will be midweek temperatures, pops
Wednesday into Thursday, a clipper-type system over the
weekend, and some uncertainty with the larger scale features by
early next week.

Direct impacts from hurricane maria are expected to remain
offshore. Indirect impacts will continue through at least
Thursday, including a high risk for the formation of dangerous
rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

We have increased temperatures a couple of degrees on Wednesday,
especially given the low bias exhibited by guidance recently.

This is with the expectation that low clouds will burn off early
in the day. These temperatures may still be a bit conservative,
especially given the low-level temperature profile per model
soundings.

We have trended a bit drier with the forecast Tuesday night and
focused pops Wednesday into Wednesday night, which is in better
agreement with the ensembles, confining chance pops to the
coastal plain in the latter time frame.

A drying trend is expected to take hold Thursday and continue
into Friday, with a popless forecast at this time. The only
exception may be down the shore on Thursday with the potential
for some lingering showers.

Temperatures slightly above average (~5 degrees) on Thursday are
forecast to trend average to slightly below average into early
next week.

There is some uncertainty with a clipper-type system over the
weekend. Forecast reflects slight chance pops across the entire
area on Saturday, when ensembles indicate the greatest chance of
precip, then trending downward by Sunday, with pops confined to
the coastal plain.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty early next week with regard
to the large scale features, with a lack of model run to run
consistency. For now, we have not strayed far from the previous
forecast, bringing pops in again for Tuesday. But low
confidence at best.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Low level onshore flow will continue and this will result in
the arrival of low clouds later tonight and Tuesday. This has
already arrived with a ifr deck at kacy, the clouds will
continue a NW motion. We have tried to time the arrival of the
ifr conditions according to guidance and climatological trends.

There may be some fog developing before the low clouds arrive.

The arrival times will be earlier and departure times later into
tue morning for the S E sites. The timing for improvement
Tuesday for all sites is rather low confid attm. Winds thru the
period will be light E or se.

Outlook...

tue night and wed... Low clouds Tue night into Wed morning will
likely result in ifr conditions from the i-95 terminals (ttn-
pne-phl-ilg) and points southeast, with greatest confidence in
ifr at acy and miv. Cannot rule out some fog as well, but it
looks predominantly like a low cloud issue. Expect improving
conditions toVFR at all terminals Wednesday. Northeast winds
may gust up to 25 knots at times along the coast.

Wednesday night through Friday... PredominantlyVFR conditions
expected. Winds shifting to the northwest Wed night and cannot
rule out MVFR in a passing shower into Thursday. Some patchy
fog is possible at the normally more prone locations by
Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday... PredominantlyVFR conditions expected at
this time.

Marine
The SCA will continue with the expectation of seas finally
reaching five feet toward sunrise on the coastal waters.

Modeling can be quick in raising seas ahead of strong low
pressure systems. Certainty isn't as high as ideal for them
rising overnight but another foot or so by sunrise looks doable
based on the trends this evening. Patchy ares of low clouds and
fog are occurring across the central southern waters ATTM and
this will continue overnight and Tuesday. Winds will remain
mostly under 10 knots from the E or se.

Outlook...

sca conditions likely to persist over the waters with the
combination of swells from hurricane maria and occasional wind
gusts to 25 knots through at least Thursday night. By Friday,
winds and seas are expected to begin subsiding, but there is a
renewed opportunity for SCA conditions over the weekend with
low pressure developing offshore.

Rip currents...

a high risk for dangerous rip currents is expected for the rest of
tonight through Tuesday.

The rip current risk remains high as long-period southeasterly
swells continue to build thanks to hurricane maria. Given the
observed rip currents this weekend along much of the nj de surf
zone, swimming is not recommended, especially in the absence of
lifeguards beach patrols.

The rip current fatality in long branch, nj on 9 23 brings the
total number to 8 this year - all in nj. This office has
compiled these statistics since 1998, and this is the greatest
number of fatalities in any one year, followed by 2008 with 6
fatalities.

Dangerous surf conditions will continue for much of the new
week. A high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
is expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. High surf
conditions and beach erosion likely to develop Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Climate
Allentown tied the record high temperature for today of 92
degrees, last set in 1970. Two other sites came within a degree
of their record highs: philadelphia and mount pocono. Here are
the record highs for september 25:
acy... 91(1970)
phl... 92(1970)
ilg... 93(1970)
abe... 92(2017 and 1970)
ttn... 92(1970)
ged... 92(2010 and 1970)
rdg... 92(1970)
mpo... 85(1970)

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through late Tuesday night for njz014-
024>026.

De... High rip current risk through late Tuesday night for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Wednesday for anz452>455.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Gaines o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Franck
aviation... Franck gaines o'hara
marine... Franck gaines o'hara
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 20 mi87 min E 7 69°F 1017 hPa67°F
44091 21 mi27 min 70°F5 ft
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 28 mi39 min 67°F 74°F1017 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 44 mi39 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 71°F 76°F1017.2 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 46 mi81 min 71°F 75°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ17 mi61 minENE 310.00 miOvercast66°F64°F96%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E7E56E7E7CalmSE3SE4CalmNE3NE3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN6N5NE6NE5E65NE7SE6E6--SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN6N5N5NW6NW6N6N6NW6N5N7N7N8N10
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Tide / Current Tables for Loveladies Harbor, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Loveladies Harbor
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Mon -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.40.50.40.30.30.20.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.40.30.20.20.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:54 AM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:15 AM EDT     2.11 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:27 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:45 PM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.8-0-0.8-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.6-0.60.61.52.11.91.20.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-2-2-1.3-0.30.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.