Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harvey Cedars, NJ
May 11, 2024 2:29 AM EDT (06:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:44 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 8:14 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 102 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Rest of tonight - NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 7 seconds and S 1 foot at 8 seconds.
Sat - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 7 seconds and S 1 foot at 8 seconds.
Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 foot at 15 seconds.
Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 14 seconds.
Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 102 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.
Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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FXUS61 KPHI 110423 AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1223 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure offshore moves away overnight. Weak high pressure arrives for Saturday before another low moves through Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure builds south of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure may affect the area with more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 12:15am...Cloud heights have risen over the past several hours, however most of the area remains under somewhat dense overcast. Have started to see some broken to at times partly cloudy skies across portions of N NJ and into the Delmarva nonetheless. The trend should continue for skies to improve overnight with more in the way of scattered clouds by day break.
As a result have made minor changes to reflect current observations...otherwise previous discussion is below:
The offshore low will continue to move away overnight and the upper trough to the west will swing through. Showers and drizzle are rapidly dwindling as drier air arrives aloft. Fog is possible if breaks develop in the overcast, which is looking more likely based on latest guidance. That said, given the improved cloud cover forecast, odds of seeing the aurora borealis from the powerful geomagnetic storm in progress have increased. By morning, lows will drop into the low 40s up across the N/W areas while mid/upper 40s will be for the other areas. Winds will remain Northwest to East at 5 to 10 mph.
For Saturday, a more tranquil weather day is expected with weak high pressure building in. There may still be some low clouds or fog across the area early, but thru the morning partly sunny skies will develop across most areas. By afternoon, the sun will mix with clouds at times. A couple showers may spill over the western areas by late afternoon. High temperatures will be below normal with high only in the low/mid 60s for most spots. Highs in the 50s will be across the higher elevations of the Poconos.
Winds will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A digging trough moving through the Great Lakes and an associated wave of low pressure at the surface will approach and push through Saturday Night into Sunday. Expecting more rain and a relatively dreary Sunday. Some elevated instability works in, especially over Delmarva, so can't rule out a rumble of thunder, though not expecting any severe weather. Rainfall amounts from a tenth to a half an inch are expected, with areas north and west of the Philadelphia metro getting into the upper end of that spectrum. It will be quite raw out with periods of rain and temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s for Mother's Day.
We begin to dry out on Sunday night as the trough moves offshore and ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.
A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing clouds at times.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term period will be marked by a couple systems moving through over the work week, with temperatures hovering near normal for mid- May. Looking at some of the NAEFS ensemble probabilities and percentiles, the two main systems next week look rather unimpactful at this time, just bringing some rain to the region. Flooding and severe potential looks quite low currently.
Ridging moves offshore Monday night with a shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic. An area of low pressure will take a similar track, eventually moving over or just south of the region on Tuesday Night. Rain chances increase by midday, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance showing the bulk of the rain coming in the overnight hours of Tuesday. There could be some embedded thunder as well.
Showers could linger through the day on Wednesday but things try to turn drier Wednesday night into Thursday as a ridge builds in. The tranquil weather does not last for long as another system moves in for the end of the week.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...Conditions mostly MVFR just before 0Z with slow improvement expected over the next few hours as rain and drizzle diminish. However, not a strong push of dry air, so where cigs break and winds go light/vrb, could get patchy fog. Low confid overall.
Saturday... Any lingering low clouds/fog early will diminish 12Z/13Z followed by VFR conditions. Clouds will increase during the afternoon. Light winds will become Southeast at 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon. Low/medium confid.
Outlook...
Saturday Night through Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings and reduced visibility with periods of rain moving through.
Monday through Monday Night..VFR. No significant weather.
Tuesday...VFR to start but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%)
later in the day as showers move in.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night into Wednesday.
MARINE
Dropped the SCA for the ocean waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Manasquan Inlet NJ as seas have now fallen below 5 feet at Buoy 44065. Otherwise, the SCA on the remainder of the ocean waters remains in effect through 6 PM today due to seas above 5 feet.
Winds will remain in the 10-20 kt range across all waters. Fair weather is expected today.
Outlook...
Saturday Night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.
Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on Wednesday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The new moon occurred Tuesday, May 7th, and this is resulting in high astronomical tides. An onshore has developed and will remain thru tonight. While the astronomical tides will be gradually lowering as we get farther away from the new moon, the onshore will increase the surge values at least some. With the peak onshore flow leading up to tonight's high tide cycle, guidance continues to indicate the threat for moderate tidal flooding for portions of Atlantic coastal New Jersey and Delaware, as well as Delaware Bay with the high tide cycle tonight into early Saturday morning high tide cycle. With increased confidence of a long duration of moderate to strong onshore flow through the day today and water levels/surge values continuing to run high with the latest high tide cycle last night into early this morning, the Coastal Flood Warning for tonight's high tide has been expanded to include all areas previously covered by the Coastal Flood Watch. Spotty minor coastal flooding will occur with todays (lower) high tide today within the Warning area.
Outside of the Warning area, in adjacent areas of the Atlantic coast of New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River, another round of widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle tonight into early Saturday morning.
Therefore, another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas for the tonight into early Saturday high tide cycle.
The high tide cycle tonight looks to be the peak of the coastal flooding impacts area-wide, but additional minor coastal flooding is forecast with the evening/overnight high tide Saturday night into early Sunday.
Flooding is not expected at this time for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake through Saturday.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070- 071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ012>014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>455.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1223 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A wave of low pressure offshore moves away overnight. Weak high pressure arrives for Saturday before another low moves through Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure builds south of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another area of low pressure may affect the area with more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 12:15am...Cloud heights have risen over the past several hours, however most of the area remains under somewhat dense overcast. Have started to see some broken to at times partly cloudy skies across portions of N NJ and into the Delmarva nonetheless. The trend should continue for skies to improve overnight with more in the way of scattered clouds by day break.
As a result have made minor changes to reflect current observations...otherwise previous discussion is below:
The offshore low will continue to move away overnight and the upper trough to the west will swing through. Showers and drizzle are rapidly dwindling as drier air arrives aloft. Fog is possible if breaks develop in the overcast, which is looking more likely based on latest guidance. That said, given the improved cloud cover forecast, odds of seeing the aurora borealis from the powerful geomagnetic storm in progress have increased. By morning, lows will drop into the low 40s up across the N/W areas while mid/upper 40s will be for the other areas. Winds will remain Northwest to East at 5 to 10 mph.
For Saturday, a more tranquil weather day is expected with weak high pressure building in. There may still be some low clouds or fog across the area early, but thru the morning partly sunny skies will develop across most areas. By afternoon, the sun will mix with clouds at times. A couple showers may spill over the western areas by late afternoon. High temperatures will be below normal with high only in the low/mid 60s for most spots. Highs in the 50s will be across the higher elevations of the Poconos.
Winds will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A digging trough moving through the Great Lakes and an associated wave of low pressure at the surface will approach and push through Saturday Night into Sunday. Expecting more rain and a relatively dreary Sunday. Some elevated instability works in, especially over Delmarva, so can't rule out a rumble of thunder, though not expecting any severe weather. Rainfall amounts from a tenth to a half an inch are expected, with areas north and west of the Philadelphia metro getting into the upper end of that spectrum. It will be quite raw out with periods of rain and temperatures in the upper 50s/low 60s for Mother's Day.
We begin to dry out on Sunday night as the trough moves offshore and ridging builds in from the west. Expecting a spread of 40s for overnight lows to close out the weekend.
A nice start to the week is expected with a broad area of high pressure working in. Temperatures moderate back to near-normal levels for mid-May, with low to mid 70s expected for most. The exception being the southern Poconos and along the coast, where highs will stay in the 60s. Skies will be mostly sunny with some passing clouds at times.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Long term period will be marked by a couple systems moving through over the work week, with temperatures hovering near normal for mid- May. Looking at some of the NAEFS ensemble probabilities and percentiles, the two main systems next week look rather unimpactful at this time, just bringing some rain to the region. Flooding and severe potential looks quite low currently.
Ridging moves offshore Monday night with a shortwave moving across the Ohio Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic. An area of low pressure will take a similar track, eventually moving over or just south of the region on Tuesday Night. Rain chances increase by midday, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance showing the bulk of the rain coming in the overnight hours of Tuesday. There could be some embedded thunder as well.
Showers could linger through the day on Wednesday but things try to turn drier Wednesday night into Thursday as a ridge builds in. The tranquil weather does not last for long as another system moves in for the end of the week.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Tonight...Conditions mostly MVFR just before 0Z with slow improvement expected over the next few hours as rain and drizzle diminish. However, not a strong push of dry air, so where cigs break and winds go light/vrb, could get patchy fog. Low confid overall.
Saturday... Any lingering low clouds/fog early will diminish 12Z/13Z followed by VFR conditions. Clouds will increase during the afternoon. Light winds will become Southeast at 5 to 10 knots during the afternoon. Low/medium confid.
Outlook...
Saturday Night through Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions expected with low ceilings and reduced visibility with periods of rain moving through.
Monday through Monday Night..VFR. No significant weather.
Tuesday...VFR to start but sub-VFR conditions likely (60-70%)
later in the day as showers move in.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions expected with showers. Chance of thunderstorms (15-25%) Tuesday night into Wednesday.
MARINE
Dropped the SCA for the ocean waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Manasquan Inlet NJ as seas have now fallen below 5 feet at Buoy 44065. Otherwise, the SCA on the remainder of the ocean waters remains in effect through 6 PM today due to seas above 5 feet.
Winds will remain in the 10-20 kt range across all waters. Fair weather is expected today.
Outlook...
Saturday Night through Monday...No marine headlines expected.
Monday Night through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on Wednesday.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The new moon occurred Tuesday, May 7th, and this is resulting in high astronomical tides. An onshore has developed and will remain thru tonight. While the astronomical tides will be gradually lowering as we get farther away from the new moon, the onshore will increase the surge values at least some. With the peak onshore flow leading up to tonight's high tide cycle, guidance continues to indicate the threat for moderate tidal flooding for portions of Atlantic coastal New Jersey and Delaware, as well as Delaware Bay with the high tide cycle tonight into early Saturday morning high tide cycle. With increased confidence of a long duration of moderate to strong onshore flow through the day today and water levels/surge values continuing to run high with the latest high tide cycle last night into early this morning, the Coastal Flood Warning for tonight's high tide has been expanded to include all areas previously covered by the Coastal Flood Watch. Spotty minor coastal flooding will occur with todays (lower) high tide today within the Warning area.
Outside of the Warning area, in adjacent areas of the Atlantic coast of New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River, another round of widespread minor coastal flooding is expected with the high tide cycle tonight into early Saturday morning.
Therefore, another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for these areas for the tonight into early Saturday high tide cycle.
The high tide cycle tonight looks to be the peak of the coastal flooding impacts area-wide, but additional minor coastal flooding is forecast with the evening/overnight high tide Saturday night into early Sunday.
Flooding is not expected at this time for our Maryland zones along the Chesapeake through Saturday.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070- 071-106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ016.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ020>027.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ012>014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for NJZ017>019.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ451>455.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ | 19 mi | 59 min | W 2.9 | 50°F | 29.86 | 49°F | ||
| 44091 | 23 mi | 63 min | 53°F | 6 ft | ||||
| ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ | 27 mi | 59 min | 51°F | 55°F | 29.77 | |||
| NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA | 42 mi | 59 min | NNW 4.1G | 49°F | 65°F | 29.86 | ||
| BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ | 44 mi | 59 min | N 2.9G | 49°F | 65°F | 29.84 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMJX OCEAN COUNTY,NJ | 16 sm | 33 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | 46°F | 45°F | 93% | 29.83 |
Flat Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM EDT 1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 09:03 AM EDT -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM EDT 0.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:25 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM EDT 1.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 09:03 AM EDT -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:56 PM EDT 0.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM EDT 0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:25 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Flat Creek, Manahawkin Bay, New Jersey, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:22 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT -3.25 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:43 AM EDT 2.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:48 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:24 PM EDT -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:48 PM EDT 2.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:25 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:22 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:17 AM EDT -3.25 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:46 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT 0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:43 AM EDT 2.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:48 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:24 PM EDT -2.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:48 PM EDT 2.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:25 PM EDT Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| -0.7 |
| 2 am |
| -1.8 |
| 3 am |
| -2.6 |
| 4 am |
| -3.2 |
| 5 am |
| -3 |
| 6 am |
| -2 |
| 7 am |
| -0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.1 |
| 10 am |
| 2.3 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| -2.4 |
| 5 pm |
| -2.3 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Philadelphia, PA,
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