Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hills, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 4:42PM Sunday November 19, 2017 2:26 PM MST (21:26 UTC) Moonrise 8:41AMMoonset 6:56PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hills, CO
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location: 39.71, -104.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 191717
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
1017 am mst Sun nov 19 2017

Update
Issued at 1010 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
lenticular clouds cover most of the foothills and plains earlier
this morning. They are beginning to dissipate from the west as
upper level cloudiness moves east-southeastward form utah and
wyoming. Most of there low level wind observations are showing a
downsloping component to them. In fact, most are southwesterly
currently. Cross sections do show a mountain wave set-up starting
to develop. Will fix the sky cover grids in accordance with
current and upstream reality. Temperatures are still relatively
cool in the 30s to lower 40s over the plains.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 240 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
main concern over the next 24 hours will be the high wind
potential over the higher mountains and east slopes after midnight
tonight.

In the meantime for today, colorado will be under a dry,
northwest flow pattern. Temperatures will be warmer today
as 700mb temperatures climb to around +0c by later today. This
will result in afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and lower
60s across lower elevations with weak downslope flow. Some
increase in high level moisture today, but should have minimal
impact on temperatures.

For tonight, expect gusty west winds will increase over the
mountains after midnight. Cross sections show cross barrier flow
increasing to 40-50kt. There is a dry ripple in the flow aloft that
passes by around midnight with some weak subsidence with this
feature. Simulated WRF satellite water vapor imagery showing this
dry, subsident feature over the east slopes between 07z-11z before
passing off to the east. Could see some resultant wind gusts from
50 to close 70 mph but widespread 75 mph or more seems a stretch
so will not issue any high wind hilites at this time. Have
increased winds in the forecast for later tonight to account for
the winds.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 240 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
northwesterly flow aloft will increase Monday as a jet noses down
into the southern great plains. Cross sections show winds peaking
at 15z with 62 kts blowing perpendicular to the mountains. Some
downward QG vertical motion will help push these down the lee,
however there is not a good mean state critical layer set up to
really put the foothills and adjacent plains into a warning
criteria event. Believe we'll see a few areas reach gusts of 65 to
70 mph, especially between sunrise and 10am, then should trend
downward. Winds will stay quite strong through the day over the
mountains, foothills and along the northern state border as the
jet finally peaks and moves off east Monday night. Speeds of 25 to
40 mph along with low humidity in the low teens will increase fire
danger - see fire discussion below.

Morning temperatures will be quite warm over the foothills and
urban corridor due to overnight downsloping winds. Since 700 mb
temperatures will also be warming 2-4 degrees, have increased
Monday's expected MAX temperatures in these areas. Moisture in the
northwest flow will push into the mountains in the late
afternoon, with snow falling over the high country. Moisture isn't
great, will likely see a quick 1-3 inches Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Moisture decreases, but just enough with
continued northwest flow will allow for light orographic snow to
continue through Tuesday.

Expect dry conditions across the area Tuesday through the weekend
as a ridge over the western and southwestern states moves east
slowly. A disturbance will produce weak cool down on Tuesday, back
to much warmer than average temperatures through Friday, before
another disturbance brings in another weak cooling for the
weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1010 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
models keep southeast to southerly wind directions are dia the
rest of today and tonight and into Monday morning. The only clouds
will be in the mid and upper levels so no ceiling issues are
expected.

Fire weather
Issued at 240 am mst Sun nov 19 2017
the strong west-northwesterly winds expected Monday will push
across the northern plains with gusts of 25 to 40 mph possible.

Combined with humidity in the 12-16% range, critical fire weather
conditions may be possible. A fire weather watch will be issued.

Bou watches warnings advisories
Fire weather watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
for coz238-242-248>251.

Update... Rjk
short term... Entrekin
long term... Kriederman
aviation... Rjk
fire weather... Kriederman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO11 mi89 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F6°F12%1015.1 hPa
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi34 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F7°F12%1015.7 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO16 mi41 minWNW 1350.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F1°F10%1016.9 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi34 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F3°F10%1014.5 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO21 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair54°F21°F28%1018.3 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO22 mi40 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F8°F12%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from BKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE8CalmS4S7S8S6SE8S9S8S7S8S7S10S7SE8S11S8S9S10S9SW8S7Calm
1 day agoNW14W6NE16
G22
NE18
G24
NE13
G20
NE6E8SW3NW12
G21
NW17
G24
NW14
G21
N19
G26
N9W8W5W3N3S6S4SE4S10S7S10S4
2 days agoSW7W6W10S6SW8SW10SW16
G23
SW8SW15SW18SW19SW20SW18SW17SW15SW16SW17SW18SW20
G26
SW15
G19
SW11
G19
SW11SW14W17
G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.