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FXUS65 KBOU 031139 AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 539 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers on the northeast plains tonight.

- Warmer and windy on Sunday.

- Sunday night into Monday will see a good chance of snow showers in the mountains. Windy and cooler over the entire area.

SHORT TERM /Through tonight/
Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

GOES-18 Mid-level Water Vapor displays showers and storms located in Wyoming this morning. The shortwave trough axis will likely stay to the north but our area should receive an increase in mid-level starting late morning. Additionally, a breezy day will occur through this evening across the region with wind gusts up to 35 mph as the shortwave trough lifts north. 700mb temperatures reach 6-8C; this will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the urban corridor and plains. Mountains and valleys should warm up to the mid 40s to 50s this afternoon. Weak instability between 100-300 J/kg will likely support scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Favorable conditions for severe storms are mainly along the Kansas Colorado border late afternoon and early evening. If a storm is able to develop in that environment, expect 1 inch hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. With snow level roughly near 8k ft, higher elevations especially along the Park Range could accumulate snow up to 1-4 inches through Saturday morning.

Late afternoon, a cold front will sweep into the CWA increasing wind gusts once more. This may produce wind gusts up to 45-50 mph. As the cold front passes, it is possible the environment becomes too stable to support any additional thunderstorm development. Tonight, drier air enters our region. Low temperatures remain near normal.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/
Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

The flow aloft will become WSW on Sat as a weak sfc lee trough develops by aftn. This will allow for SSE low level flow to develop across the plains. Some moisture will affect the higher terrain by aftn with MLCAPE around 200 j/kg. As a result, there will be a chc of aftn showers and a few tstms, especially over the higher terrain along and south of I-70. Across the plains it will be dry and cooler with highs in the 60's.

By Sun, SW flow aloft will increase across the area as a storm system moves into the Great Basin. In addition, sfc low pres will intensify from central WY into ern CO with stg southerly flow in the lower levels. As a result, will likely see winds gusts in the 45-55 mph range across the plains Sun aftn. As far as precip chances, MLCAPE will rise to around 300 j/kg over portions of the plains, however, there is a capping inversion which probably will inhibit tstm development. Meanwhile, highs will be warmer over most of the plains as readings rise into the 70's. The only exception would be over the far ern plains, where highs may stay in the mid to upper 60s due to low level cloud cover.

For Sun night into Mon, the storm system over the Great Basin will move quickly ENE with an intense upper level low moving into ern WY, by Mon aftn. As the srn extent of the upper level trough moves across nrn CO, there will be a round of snow in the mtns Sun night into Mon morning. Across the plains, a bora type front will move across during the day with gusty WNW winds developing by midday. There also could be a chc of showers in the morning as a quick shot of mid level ascent moves across. Highs across the plains will drop back into the 60's.

Looking ahead to Mon night into Tue, an intense storm system will be over the nrn Plains. This will allow for brisk WNW flow aloft across the area. Cross-sections, show enough moisture embedded in the flow to bring a chc of orographic snow showers to the mtns.
Across the plains, it will be dry with gusty WNW winds continuing.

On Wed, the storm system will move slowly eastward with WNW flow aloft remaining over the region. Once again, there will be some moisture embedded in the flow to bring a chc of snow showers to the mtns. Across the plains, it will remain dry and windy with highs remaining in the 60's.

By Thu, the flow aloft will become more NW as a shot of cooler air moves into the area behind a front. In addition, there may be a disturbance embedded in the flow which could bring a chc of precip to the region as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/
Issued at 533 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions continue for the TAF period. Winds increase between 14-17kts and shift southeasterly by mid afternoon. Gusts up to 22-28kts could occur. It is possible just before the front arrives, scattered showers and storms develop northeast of all terminals. Outflow from these showers could lead to stronger wind gusts up to 30-35kts and variable wind direction.

A cold front should arrive sometime between 23-01Z thus increasing wind briefly between 20-24kts. By 03-05Z, winds will decrease but struggle to turn back into drainage. Expect northeasterly flow late tonight through Saturday morning.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 256 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

It will be windy over the plains Sunday through Tuesday. Humidity levels will gradually drop from Monday into Tuesday. However, recent rainfall combined with greening up of vegetation could reduce fire danger across portions of the plains. At the time, the most likely area for increasing fire danger would be over southern Lincoln county.

BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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