Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hills, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:17PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 10:57 PM MDT (04:57 UTC) Moonrise 5:05AMMoonset 7:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hills, CO
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location: 39.71, -104.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 250237
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
837 pm mdt Wed may 24 2017

Update
Issued at 819 pm mdt Wed may 24 2017
ridging aloft will be shifting east of colorado tonight as
increasing westerly flow aloft moves in. Some increase in
moisture noted already with even a few light showers over
mountains and western colorado this evening. Will keep isolated
isolated showers in the mountains all night given increased
activity over northern utah and with jet streak moving into west
central colorado. Still looks like more active day on Thursday
afternoon with the increasing moisture and cold front over ne
colorado during the afternoon.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 242 pm mdt Wed may 24 2017
a ridge of high pressure aloft combined with an impressive 700 mb
thermal ridge has allowed temperatures to warm nicely into the
low 80s across the plains of colorado this afternoon with 60s in
the mountains. The warm and dry conditions will change by tomorrow
as a storm system across the pacific northwest will flatten the
ridge over colorado tonight and ushering in lower heights
throughout the day Thursday. This will result in cooler
temperatures area wide and a decent chance of thunderstorms.

Tonight skies will remain mostly clear and the gusty west winds
occurring now will diminish later this evening as the atmosphere
decouples with the loss of solar heating and a lack of a
significant surface pressure gradient. Given how warm it is this
afternoon overnight lows will only drop to the mid 50s across the
plains and i-25 urban corridor, with upper 30s to 40s in the
mountains.

The changes in the weather should reach the mountains first
beginning late morning Thursday with the arrival of cold advection
at 700 mb, driven by a 700 mb low moving across wyoming. 700 mb
temps cool 5-8 degc across the northern 1 4 of colorado from
overnight into midday Thursday. Cooling also occurs in the mid
levels as the 500 mb low moves from idaho into wyoming by midday
Thursday. All this cooling aloft occurring during MAX surface
heating will generate a fair amount of convective instability
across our area by early afternoon. Early Thursday there should
also be a weak surface cool front that moves from NE colorado
towards the foothills. Behind (east of) the front slightly cooler
temperatures and east-northeast winds will exist, as well as much
more moist low-level air, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near
50. How far west the boundary makes it will play a role on where
thunderstorms will form. They could form along the surface
boundary itself during peak heating because of good convergence
along the boundary with drier, west winds ahead of the front.

Storms should also form early afternoon across the higher terrain
as the pool of cold air aloft is advection into northern colorado.

Those storms would move east across the plains given the west-
southwest storm-level flow. Feel that across weld and larimer
counties, closest to the cold air aloft, the surface front should
initiate convection there early afternoon and move southeast
along the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, storms that move off the
higher terrain may have trouble sustaining themselves if they
encounter the dry air west of the cold front if the cold front
does not make it to the foothills by mid afternoon. In the moist
air behind the front MLCAPE should exceed 1000 j kg, and any
convection that develops along and east of the front could be
capable of small hail and gusty winds. Deep layer wind shear would
also support organized storms. Storm coverage across the plains
depends on the location of the front but chances of thunderstorms
are in the forecast for much of the area north of i-70, highest
across larimer weld counties where the best instability and
convective forcing should be. The mountains, especially along and
north of i-70, have a good chance of diurnal convection Thursday
afternoon. Snow levels will remain above 11.5kft tomorrow during
the convective precipitation so am not expecting any impacts from
the snow. With convection and cool outflow, increased cloud cover,
and the weak cool front... Thursday will be a cooler day across
the area with 70s on the plains and 50s to mid 60s expected in the
mountains.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 242 pm mdt Wed may 24 2017
the threat for showers and thunderstorms will decrease Thursday
evening as the airmass stabilizes. May be enough moisture and
orographic lift for showers to linger overnight. An upper level
trough dropping south over the northern great basin and a jet near
by will help provide lift to trigger afternoon thunderstorms
Friday. Temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dew points
in the mid to upper 40s yield surface based CAPE of 700 to 1500
j kg Friday afternoon. This combined with good shear should result
in a few severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Models in fairly
good agreement that convection should be able to break through the
cap during the afternoon. Will continue to carry high scattered
pops for Friday afternoon evening.

The upper level trough continues to sag southeast and will pass
over colorado Saturday. Showers will be likely for the much of the
area. Cloud cover will make it a cool day with temperatures
struggling to make it into the lower 60s. If temperatures make it
into the lower 60s this should make it unstable enough for
isolated thunderstorms.

It dries Saturday night as a north-northwest flow aloft sets up
behind the exiting trough. This pattern will continue into Sunday
and Monday. It warms a little Sunday and Monday because of some
clearing, but expect temperatures to remain below normal. Still
may be enough moisture and instability for showers and weak
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, but coverage will be less than
Saturday.

Weak northwest flow aloft will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday as
an upper level ridge forms over the great basin. Temperatures will
warm, but stay slightly below normal. Models indicate there
should be enough moisture and instability for late day convection
each day, so will keep low pops in the forecast.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 819 pm mdt Wed may 24 2017
surface winds are still northwest at kden kbjc and will be
shifting more SW later this evening. There is a boundary to the
southeast of kden which could briefly switch winds more southeast
for a brief time between 03-04z. More active day expected thu
afternoon with a cold front around 20-21z and a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Entrekin
short term... Schlatter
long term... Meier
aviation... Entrekin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO11 mi2 hrsWSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds71°F28°F20%995.7 hPa
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi64 minSW 810.00 miFair63°F28°F28%997.4 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO16 mi72 minW 550.00 miA Few Clouds63°F35°F37%1003.4 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi64 minSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds66°F37°F34%994.9 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO21 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair59°F41°F52%1001.7 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO22 mi2.2 hrsSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F46°F49%1003 hPa

Wind History from BKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S6S8S9S8S9S8S7S10S6CalmW6SW7NW9
G16
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W14NW8
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W13W10W9W6S3
1 day agoW5W5N4N3W4W5W5W5W4W6N12N19
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2 days agoW3NW7S6SW6SW5S7S5SW5SW5SW6NW6NW5N9
G14
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NE7N5
G15
S4NW11N17
G31
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G34
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G21
CalmS4W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.