Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holly Hills, CO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:15PM Friday March 22, 2019 12:59 AM MDT (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:24PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holly Hills, CO
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location: 39.71, -104.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Denver/Boulder, CO
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Fxus65 kbou 220329
afdbou
area forecast discussion
national weather service denver boulder co
929 pm mdt Thu mar 21 2019

Update
Issued at 929 pm mdt Thu mar 21 2019
no changes needed at this time. This evening a band of snow
showers brought what looks like a quick inch of snow in south
park. This is lifting nne and weakening as it approaches i-70, but
there are more showers developing down around salida that should
take a similar path. There's a bit of a dry slot further west, but
not sure this will move much. Current forecast of light snow
showers with some decrease later tonight still looks alright.

These showers will try to drift a bit off the mountains but will
be fighting low level dry air, so while a few sprinkles are
possible later tonight on the plains it shouldn't be much. Gradual
moistening on tap for Friday morning with the main lift and
destabilization in the afternoon, which seems to be well covered.

Short term (this evening through Friday)
issued at 321 pm mdt Thu mar 21 2019
current satellite imagery shows an elongated upper level trough
stretching across the desert southwest toward the four corners
area. Moisture and instability was leading to shower and
thunderstorm development to our west. The main batch we'll have to
contend with tonight is the current band of showers and
thunderstorms stretching from near grand junction into northwest
new mexico. This band, fairly well handled so far by the hrrr and
namnest, is advertised to reach the northern mountains 8-11 pm. We
have therefore bumped up pops in this time frame when we could see
a quick inch of slushy snow over the mountains, with up to 2 or 3
possible on some slopes around the mosquito range.

On the plains, the low levels are still fairly dry and we have
deep southerly flow sheltering us, so mainly virga is expected. We
can't rule out a couple showers due to mid level instability, so
we'll maintain a slight chance of precipitation.

On Friday, shower coverage will expand over the entire forecast
area by afternoon as the upper level low begins to reorganize over
the colorado new mexico border, and we destabilize further with
daytime heating. CAPE values increase to 200-500 j kg, so will
mention isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage as well. A
couple thunderstorms may produce small hail, especially over
lincoln county where CAPE may approach 800 j kg by late afternoon.

Snow levels will hover near 7000-8000 feet most of the day, with
the lower levels west of the front range. Accumulations of 2 to 4
inches can be expected above 9000 feet during the bulk of the snow
showers during the afternoon. Snow may be quite heavy at times
due to the convective nature of the snow, so despite the
relatively mild temperatures road impacts will be possible along
the i-70 corridor with some slush snow accumulation during the
periods of heavier snowfall.

Long term (Friday night through Thursday)
issued at 321 pm mdt Thu mar 21 2019
tomorrow evening will see areas of rain showers and thunderstorms
moving over the plains as a negatively tilted trough continues
on its path toward western kansas. By Friday morning the closed
upper low will be over western kansas with northerly flow aloft
over northeast colorado. Quasi-geostrophic diagnostics shows only
modest dynamic forcing with this trough, so only marginal cooling
of the airmass is expected. Evaporative cooling may be enough for
the tail end of the showers on the plains to begin changing over
to snow, probably after about midnight. In the mountains, evening
snow showers may produce an additional inch or two of snowfall.

Most of Saturday should be dry as weak upper level ridging moves
over the state. Models then show moist zonal flow across state
Sunday with an embedded shortwave trough in the ECMWF model.

Either way, this should bring more snow to the mountains, but keep
the plains dry. Temperatures should be right around seasonal
normals.

The rest of next week shows strong upper level ridging dominating
the weather across the western united states. This will bring dry
and warm weather to the state for the Monday through Wednesday
time period. During the latter half of the week, flow aloft will
become more southwesterly as the upper level ridge axis slides
eastward and over the central plains. Moisture aloft should begin
to increase after Wednesday. Afternoon highs on the plains through
much of the week will be in the 60s, if not into the lower 70s on
Wednesday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 929 pm mdt Thu mar 21 2019
vfr conditions will persist through most of this period with only
increasing mid and high level moisture. There is a slight risk of
a passing rain shower after 06z tonight. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will develop after 20z and become likely by 00z with
localized MVFR conditions. Wind gusts to 25kts will be possible
at kden and kapa, while kbjc will keep lighter winds.

Bou watches warnings advisories
None.

Update... Sullivan gimmestad
short term... Barjenbruch
long term... Dankers
aviation... Sullivan gimmestad


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Buckley Air Force Base Airport, CO11 mi2 hrsSSW 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F30°F56%1013.4 hPa
Denver - Centennial Airport, CO12 mi67 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F30°F60%1015.3 hPa
Broomfield / Jeffco, CO16 mi66 minN 710.00 miFair45°F23°F43%1016.3 hPa
Denver, Denver International Airport, CO18 mi67 minS 1210.00 miOvercast41°F32°F70%1013.3 hPa
Erie Municipal Airport, CO21 mi66 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F25°F54%1017.6 hPa
Denver Nexrad, CO22 mi66 minS 1310.00 miFair44°F33°F67%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from BKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S7S9S5SW9S10S9S11----S13
G22
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1 day agoS7S6S8S8S7S8S5S8SW9SW8NW4N4NW4N6N7NE7NE5E3SE4SE7SE8S8S4S7
2 days agoN3CalmNW3W4NW3NW3NE4CalmN6NE8NE8NE10NE10
G17
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G20
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N13NE6NE6N5E3SE7S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Denver/Boulder, CO (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Denver/Boulder, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.