Friday, January18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Barry, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:09PM Friday January 18, 2019 4:42 PM CST (22:42 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barry, IL
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location: 39.71, -91     debug

Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 182104
area forecast discussion
national weather service saint louis mo
304 pm cst Fri jan 18 2019

Short term (through late Saturday night)
issued at 302 pm cst Fri jan 18 2019
a strong winter storm is already beginning to take shape across the
four corners region of the desert southwest. Deterministic model
guidance has come into much better agreement with the large-scale
evolution of this storm system, especially compared to 24 hours ago.

Precipitation is already beginning to take shape near the mid-
missouri valley and is expected to really blossom over the next 6
hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Precipitation type is
expected to be mainly snow tonight across portions of northeast
missouri and west-central illinois where the winter storm warning
resides. The snow may mix in with or even change to rain for a brief
time as warmer air around 850 hpa advects northward. However, the
northern extent of any mixing within the warning area is expected to
stay just south of kuin. For areas further to the south, mainly if
not all rain is expected through the night, though after about 0900
utc the rain snow line should begin to march southeastward as the
low-level flow backs to the northeast.

Deterministic model guidance is showing a much stronger midlatitude
cyclone compared to yesterday's guidance, closing off to about 500
hpa south of the bi-state area. In fact, this midlatitude cyclone
exhibits many of the classic signatures for heavy snow cases for the
central portion of the lsx cwa, including but not limited to: 1)
deepening 850-hpa low tracking northeast near or just northwest of
the ohio river, 2) deepening 500-hpa trough that becomes negatively
tilted with increasing height, 3) hints of a coupled jet streak
signature during the warm air advection phase with strong divergence
via the left-exit region of jet streak downstream of trough axis on
Saturday, and 4) surface low track just northwest of kmem that
deepens with time. Model QPF looks quite low, and potentially
woefully low given the dynamic setup with this system. Boosted qpf
and associated snowfall amounts to account for what should be a
strong deformation zone that should track over the southeastern half
of the CWA from late Saturday morning through the afternoon hours.

The uncertainty remains exactly where and how high are the snowfall
totals. Model guidance at 1200 utc also seemed too far southeast
with the heavier QPF axis, especially on Saturday afternoon. Leaned
closer to the typical 90nm to the left of the track of the 850-hpa
low, which previous research such as browne and younkin (1970)
showed was highly correlated to axis of heaviest snowfall. In
addition, given the deepening of this system, would not be surprised
if short-term guidance ends up shifting about 15-30 miles further
northwest with the track of this system. A similar northwest jog has
already happened on a few different occasions this winter including
the november 15, 2018 case.

The transition from rain to snow should continue from northwest to
southeast, and may occur faster than forecast if convection
materializes. Model guidance suggests convection may occur near the
transition zone as soundings show very steep midlevel lapse rates
and instability aloft as the dry conveyor belt punches into
southeastern missouri Saturday morning. While the addition of
thunder was limited to the warm air advection precipitation tonight
across southeastern missouri, would not be surprised to see a few
lightning strikes during the morning hours on Saturday as far north
as central portions of the cwa. If this were to occur that far north
and west, thundersnow would be possible. After the 850-hpa low
passes to the south of the region, all snow is favored for the
duration of the storm. Immediately after the changeover, expect
moderate to potentially heavy snowfall rates (up to 1" hr) to last
anywhere from 6-9 hours. The short duration of accumulating snowfall
over the southeastern half of the CWA is the main limiting factor
for higher snowfall totals (6+"), though a general 2-4 inches are
expected. Locally higher amounts however near or slightly above 6"
are possible within heavier banding. Across northeastern missouri
and west-central illinois, the snow should wind down by mid to late
morning. Amounts in this area are still forecast to be in the 4-6"
range and there remains a high confidence in the snowfall amounts
for these locations.

The other main story during and in the hours after the conclusion of
the snowfall will be the very strong northerly winds (20-30 mph),
with gusts in the 30-40 mph range. This should reduce visibilities
due to blowing and drifting of snow and will act to prolong the
period of hazardous driving conditions as snow blows back over
previously plowed roadways. The gusty northerly wins combined with
falling temperatures will also yield the coldest wind chill readings
so far this season on Saturday night. Lowest wind chill values
across the CWA should reside in parts of northeast missouri and west-
central illinois where values of -5 to -10f are forecast.


Long term (Sunday through next Friday)
issued at 302 pm cst Fri jan 18 2019
cold air, the coldest of the season, continues to move into the area
through midday Sunday with 850 temps near -10. As surface ridge
continues to move off to the east SE flow will return Sunday night
into Monday keeping the region not as cold as previously thought.

Highs on Sunday should be in the teens and low twenties with a low
Sunday night in the teens. Temps will rebound to the upper twenties
to mid thirties Monday. Wind chills on Sunday could reach the
negative single digits for northern parts of the cwa.

Sunday and Monday look to remain dry, with the exception of an upper
level disturbance skirting the NE portion of the CWA Sunday night.

Gfs euro both have the disturbance weakening as it approaches the
cwa so have kept pops low. Precip chances ramp up again Tuesday
ahead of the next system with low level moisture and large scale
ascent ahead of upper level trough and associated low. The euro gfs
are in good agreement with the placement and timing of this system
while the canadian is much slower. I went with the faster solution
which will be a mainly rain event at the onset. Southerly flow and
plenty of WAA will push daytime temps into the 40s ahead of a cold
front that will make it through the region late Tuesday night
Wednesday morning. The cold air behind the front will change the
precip to snow and drops temps into the high teens and low twenties.

The next system will affect the area Thursday and Friday as the next
upper level trough is expected to move into the region system. There
is high variability with the global models for this system so I have
left pops low at this time.


Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1141 am cst Fri jan 18 2019
specifics for kuin: little improvement in flight conditions is
expected due to an approaching winter storm. Initially ifr
ceilings at TAF issuance may briefly improve to MVFR, but any
improvement will be brief and transient based on satellite imagery
and regional metars. Snow will develop this afternoon and move
eastward, likely reaching kuin between 19 00z-03z. A prolonged
period of snow is then expected at kuin, and grounds crews should
expect between 4-6" of new snow accumulation. Wind speeds and
gusts will also be increasing as the snow is falling, and this
should further reduce visibilities. At least some reduction in
visibility is expected to persist even after the snow has ended
because of the winds.

Specifics for kcou: little improvement in flight conditions is
expected at kcou until after an approaching winter storm has moved
through the region. Rain will develop and move eastward into kcou
between 18 22z-19 01z and then persist for several hours. Rain
will mix with and transition to snow between 19 07-09z. Snow will
then continue for several hours. Grounds crews should expect 2-3"
of new snow accumulation, but it may be difficult to measure due
to the increasing wind speeds and wind gusts. Wind gusts of 20-30
kts are likely after 19 07z and will further reduce visibilities
at times.

Specifics for kstl, ksus, kcps: an approaching winter storm will
bring ifr flight conditions, mixed precipitation, and gusty north
winds to the st. Louis metropolitan area terminals during the next
0-30 hours. Initially ifr ceilings at TAF issuance may briefly
improve to MVFR during the first 0-6 hours, but any improvement
will be short in duration based on satellite imagery and regional
metars. Rain will develop and spread eastward with time, likely
reaching the st. Louis metropolitan area between 01-04z. Rain will
last for several hours. As colder air moves into the region, the
rain will start to mix with and then transition over to snow
between 12-14z. Wind speeds and gusts will also be increasing
during this time, and gusts up to 30 kts are expected between 19
17z-24z. This will likely produce areas of blowing snow which
will reduce visibilities even after the snow has ended.


Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 9 pm cst Saturday for
crawford mo-iron mo-jefferson mo-madison mo-reynolds mo-
saint francois mo-saint louis city mo-saint louis mo-sainte
genevieve mo-washington mo.

Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst
Saturday for audrain mo-boone mo-callaway mo-cole mo-
franklin mo-gasconade mo-lincoln mo-moniteau mo-montgomery
mo-osage mo-saint charles mo-warren mo.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm cst Saturday for knox mo-lewis
mo-marion mo-monroe mo-pike mo-ralls mo-shelby mo.

Il... Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 9 pm cst Saturday for bond
il-clinton il-fayette il-madison il-marion il-monroe il-
randolph il-saint clair il-washington il.

Winter weather advisory from midnight tonight to 6 pm cst
Saturday for calhoun il-greene il-jersey il-macoupin il-
montgomery il.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm cst Saturday for adams il-brown
il-pike il.

Wfo lsx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield, Pittsfield Penstone Municipal Airport, IL13 mi47 minE 93.00 miOvercast34°F32°F95%1016.6 hPa
Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL19 mi48 minE 132.00 miFog/Mist33°F30°F92%1016 hPa

Wind History from PPQ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW6W5W4W3W3W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E4E7E8E9E9
1 day agoE3E4E4E3E6E4E4E4NE3NE4NE4NE3N4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW4W4W4NW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.