Thursday, December13, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hannibal, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:43PM Thursday December 13, 2018 4:05 PM CST (22:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:45AMMoonset 10:37PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hannibal, MO
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location: 39.71, -91.37     debug

Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 132148
area forecast discussion
national weather service saint louis mo
348 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018

Short term (through late Friday afternoon)
issued at 339 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018
a large swath of rain has finally made inroads into the CWA and at
mid-afternoon extended from southern il through east-central and
southeast mo southward into ar. This rain was occuring in response
to isentropic ascent associated with the warm conveyor belt along
with mid level frontogenetic forcing, increasing divergence aloft,
and large scale ascent associated with a northeastward tracking
disturbance in the lower ms valley. This quasi northeast-southest
oriented band of rain should continue to expand and push northward
into the evening hours as the better forcing shifts northward
ahead of the lifting mid level disturbance. During the overnight
hours the rain should diminish across parts of central and north-
central mo and eventually west central il attendant with the departure
of the disturbance aloft and onset of subsidence isentropic downglide.

Present indications are temperatures throughout the area impacted
by rain will remain above freezing.

The coverage and intensity of the rain across the region will be at
a minimum during the first part of Saturday morning with the main
concentration from southern il into east central mo and southeast
mo. However from late morning into the afternoon there should be an
uptick in coverage and intensity of the rain as the upper low moves
into the lower ms valley, and a deformation zone becomes established
from southern il across southeast mo and gradually lifts north-
northwest with time. Rather strong divergence aloft, good large
scale forcing, and impressive mid level frontogenesis driving the
band of rain support nearly continuous rainfall and potential for
periods of moderate to heavy rain during the afternoon-evening.

Present thinking is the north-northwest fringe of the rain band,
which will stretch from central mo into south central il on
Saturday night, will remain within temperatures above freezing.

The rain should diminish in intensity and the back edge will shift
eastward into east-central and southeast mo by daybreak Saturday
as the upper low ejects northeast through the tn valley region.

We have issued a flood watch for our far southern counties -
reynolds, iron, and madison where the greatest longevity and
intensity of rainfall will reside and where storm total rainfall
through Saturday morning will be in the 2-4 inch range. Runoff from
this amount of rainfall could pose some minor flood problems.


Long term (Friday night through next Thursday)
issued at 339 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018
the stacked low pressure system will continue exiting to the
northest through the tennessee valley Saturday. However, the
flood watch will continue during the morning hours as the
deformation zone tracks over parts of southeast missouri into
southern illinois. While the rain should be tapering off during
the morning, guidance continues to produce .10 up to around .30
inch of qpf, and with soils already saturated from nearly 48 hours
of more or less steady rainfall, the possibility of flooding
cannot be ruled out. Low level moisture convergence in the
deformation zone weakens rapidly during the afternoon with a
corresponding decrease in qpf. Temperatures through Saturday
should remain above freezing except in the morning over parts of
northeast missouri and west central illinois where little if any
precip is expected to fall. For the remainder of the area,
temperatures will rise out of the mid 30s to the mid and upper 40s
so wintry precipitation is not expected.

High pressure will begin building across the great plains into the
midwest Saturday night and continue into next week. A high
amplitude upper level pattern builds across the central u.S. At the
same time and develops into a quasi omega block with a strong ridge
moving slowly from the great plains through the mississippi valley
from late Sunday through Tuesday night or Wednesday. Between the
ridge aloft and high pressure at the surface sliding across the
midwest, we should have tranquil and dry weather at least through
Wednesday. The truly cold air associated with the surface high
should stay bottled up across the upper midwest and southern canada
as the upper level ridge will keep the jet stream well north of our
area. Sky should stay pretty clear except for potentially
intermittent high clouds, which will make for excellent radiational
cooling at night and strong insolation during the day. Night time
lows should dip into the mid and upper 20s and daytime highs will
jump into the mid 40s to low 50s. The next substantial chance for
precip will be Wednesday night as the next upstream trof finally
kicks the upper level ridge east allowing a cold front to move
through the mississippi valley. Moisture return ahead of the front
may be an issue though so have kept pops in the slight chance low
chance range. Temperatures in the column do not support any frozen
precip so have kept precip types all rain at this time.


Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1142 am cst Thu dec 13 2018
ifr flight conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Rain thus far has been rather spotty from i-70 northward,
however a surge in more continuous rain is heading north from
southern mo and this will overspread the area this afternoon
resulting in lowering visibilities due to the rain and fog. Rain
will be rather continuous this evening and then will taper some
during the overnight hours in coverage and intensity. Despite this
the ifr flight conditions will persist due to low ceilings and in
some cases fog. The st. Louis terminals will see another uptick in
rain on Friday morning.

Specifics for kstl:
ifr flight conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Rain thus far has been rather spotty, however a surge in
more continuous rain is heading north from southern mo and this
will move into the terminal this afternoon resulting in lowering
visibilities due to the rain and fog. Rain will be rather
continuous this evening and then may taper some during the
overnight hours in coverage and intensity. Despite this the ifr
flight conditions will persist due to low ceilings and fog. There
should be another uptick in rain intensity by mid-morning on
Friday. Southeast winds this afternoon will back to more easterly
this evening and then north-northeasterly overnight and into
Friday morning.


Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... Flood watch through Saturday morning for iron mo-madison mo-
reynolds mo.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL18 mi72 minE 50.25 miFog41°F39°F96%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from UIN (wind in knots)
Last 24hr3SE3S5SE4SE4E3E7E8E9E9E8E7SE8E8E7E8SE8SE8E7E7E5SE7E5E5
1 day agoS6S8S10S9S10S11S12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.