Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hannibal, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:06PM Thursday September 20, 2018 1:29 AM CDT (06:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 1:25AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hannibal, MO
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location: 39.71, -91.37     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 200450
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
1150 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Short term (through late Thursday afternoon)
issued at 341 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
widely scattered thunderstorms have developed over parts of central
and eastern missouri as well as southwest and south central
illinois. This activity is sprouting out of MLCAPE values in excess
of 3000 j kg according to the SPC mesoanalysis. Effective bulk
shear is 30kts or less though, so I do not expect the storms to get
really organized. Downdraft CAPE is decent though at around 1200-
1300 j kg so some strong wind gusts are certainly possible.

Instability tails off after sunset, and with the low level jet
refocusing over the eastern northeastern plains I expect this
afternoon's convection to dissipate within an hour or two of sunset.

There could be a few showers again on Thursday morning as the 850mb
flow veers, becoming more cross-isothermal. Most short-range
guidance shows some weak to moderate low level moisture convergence
around sunrise, and they produce some light qpf... Mainly along and
east of the mississippi. The chance for afternoon thunderstorms
continues on Thursday, though forecast soundings show less CAPE and
a weak capping inversion which should limit the areal coverage.

Temperatures tonight will remain warm in the low to mid 70s due to
the warm dew point temperatures locked in over the region. South-
southwest flow over the area on Thursday should promote a good warm
up in the afternoon so have bumped temperatures up into the low to
mid 90s.

Carney

Long term (Thursday night through next Wednesday)
issued at 341 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
medium-range models are advertising a pattern shift beginning on
Friday and continuing out into the middle of next week. The
persistent upper level ridge which has been keeping unseasonably
warm temperatures over the mid mississippi valley for the last
couple of weeks will finally start to weaken and move east out over
the atlantic. This attenuation process will start with a shortwave
on Friday which will help to drive a surface cold front through
missouri and illinois. Scattered showers and thunderstorms look
likely along and ahead of the front late Thursday night and Friday.

The upper ridge tries to reassert itself this weekend, and all
guidance has the surface front stalling over arkansas and trying to
drift back to the north as another wave drops into the plains on
Saturday. This will keep a low chance for preicp over the southern
portion of the cwfa through the weekend despite being north of the
front.

The GFS and ECMWF start to look pretty fall-like by the middle of
next week. Both models bring a long wave trof down into the great
plains by late Monday or early Tuesday. The GFS is a bit sharper
and more aggressive in driving the trof south, but the general idea
is the same. The front which sitting over arkansas should drift
north into missouri on Monday as southerly flow increases ahead of
the long wave... And then it should be pushed back to the south
Tuesday into Tuesday night. There are timing differences out that
far of course, but both models agree that there should be some more
precip more seasonal temperatures in the 70s on the way next week.

Carney

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1150 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018
vfr conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. The already low chance for thunderstorms for early
Thursday morning looks to have lessened even more, with the
additional potential for isolated thunderstorms developing once
again with afternoon heating continuing on Thursday. However,
chances are too low to mention in the tafs at this time.

Additional rain chances associated with an approaching cold front
Thursday night look to primarily affect the TAF sites after the
valid period. There is also a low chance for a brief visibility
reduction due to mist just before sunrise Thursday at the better
sheltered sites of ksus and kcps, but have declined mention at
this time. Otherwise, look for light S surface winds to strengthen
on Thursday with gusts to 18-20kts especially NW of the stl metro
area. Marginal llws conditions will be found Thursday night late
in the valid period, but prefer to see a better setup before
mentioning so late in the period.

Specifics for kstl:VFR conditions are expected to prevail thru
the valid period. While there will be low chances for thunderstorms
on Thursday afternoon, chances are too low to mention at this
time, with the chances late Thursday night being not only low but
their timing will be at the very end of the valid period. Look
for light S surface winds to strengthen on Thursday. Gusts to
18kts are possible but currently we expect this to affect sites nw
of the stl metro area.

Tes

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quincy Regional Airport-Baldwin Field, IL18 mi36 minS 410.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1012.5 hPa

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Last 24hrNE6NE5NE10E13
G22
SE6NE4E4SE4SE6SE4E4CalmS45W7W4S3SE5SE8S7S6S7S6S4
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4SW3SW4S3SW4SW4W6SW7W6W4W6W6NE17
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2 days agoN3N3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW5W4CalmW4W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.