Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beckett, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:44PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 11:29 AM EST (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 7:40AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 910 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of today..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. Snow. Rain or a chance of sleet or freezing rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight, then becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. A chance of rain early in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft after midnight, then 2 ft or less after midnight.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
ANZ400 910 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A complex area of low pressure and frontal system will move north through the eastern united states bringing the area a mix of wintry precipitation today into tonight. High pressure will build into the area for Thursday and Friday. Strong low pressure moving across the great lakes should bring mostly rain to the region for much of Saturday and Sunday. High pressure is forecast to return early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beckett, NJ
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location: 39.72, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201428
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
928 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A complex area of low pressure and frontal system will move north
through the eastern united states bringing the area a mix of wintry
precipitation today into tonight. High pressure will build into
the area for Thursday and Friday. Strong low pressure moving across
the great lakes should bring mostly rain to the region for much of
Saturday and Sunday. High pressure is forecast to return early next
week.

Near term through tonight
930 am: made some changes to the temperature and weather type
forecast to account for current trends. Boundary layer is
getting closer to saturation, so a few sites have begun to
report snow reaching the ground, including in chester county,
philadelphia, and portions of delmarva. This trend is expected
to continue through mid day, as snow spreads over the region.

After 18z, expect the warm air aloft to advect in, resulting in
first sleet mixing in (initially the warm layer looks to be
elevated enough to support more sleet than freezing rain), then
a mixture of sleet and freezing rain.

This remains the trickiest part of the forecast since any
slight change in the temperatures will mean the difference
between sleet freezing rain or rain. With the morning update
adjusted temperatures closer to the lamp and a blend of short
range models which appear to be handling the surface temperature
trends the best so far. As a result, made some minor changes to
the weather timing of transitions to match the current
temperature forecast. The transition should be well under way
across DELMARVA by early this afternoon. For much of the i95
corridor, the transition is expected to occur mid afternoon to
early evening (unfortunately not likely to see a change over to
all rain in these locations before the start of the evening
commute). The southern poconos and NW nj will be the last to see
the change over to all rain, which may not come until well after
midnight tonight.

Snow and ice amounts: with this update, made only minor
adjustments to the snow amounts (primarily given the slightly
later start than previously expected). No changes to the ice
amounts with this update. Still looking at a general 2 to 4
inches of snow and sleet over most of eastern pa, central and
northern nj and northern parts of the delmarva. Areas south of
here will see amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range.

Additional concern is freezing rain. A light glaze up to a few
hundredths of an inch of ice accretion is likely over the
northern DELMARVA N E along the i-95 corridor while upwards of
one to two tenths of an inch of ice is expected over portions of
eastern pa from western chester county north through berks
county, the lehigh valley into the southern poconos.

Impacts: regardless of the exact snow and ice amounts, we remain
very concerned that much of the region could be seeing the
greatest impacts coincident with the evening commute. The one
exception is much of the DELMARVA and SE nj which should see
the change over to all rain before this time. Even if the snow
and ice amounts are lower, the potential for ice on top of snow,
could result in very slippery conditions.

Short term Thursday
Quieter weather on tap for Thursday. The last of any precip
(which will be in the form of rain showers) will come to an end
in the early morning as a weak cold front behind the low clears
the delmarva. Otherwise expect developing sunshine, breezy, and
mild conditions as low pressure moves into the canadian
maritimes and high pressure moves into the midwest. Highs will
range from the mid 40s over the southern poconos to the low to
mid 50s for areas near and S E of the i-95 corridor.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
4 am update... Overall, no major changes to the long range
forecast. Quiet weather looks to persist through Friday before
the next system, mainly a rainstorm, affects the area over the
weekend. Do have some concerns that there could be some strong
winds on the back side of this system for late Sunday so we
increased the winds for this time period.

Previous discussion: mid- upper-level ridge is forecast to
build over the eastern u.S., while another shortwave trof begins
to eject out of the southwest. Winds aloft become southwest and
begin to bring increasing cloud and moisture into the mid-
atlantic. Light precip is forecast to develop and spread
northeast into the area on Saturday, or possibly late Friday
night in delmarva. Confidence in the time of arrival is
relatively low, and any rain amounts on Saturday should be
light. Temps should be warm enough to avoid any sig snow or ice
with this event.

Saturday night looks more favorable for significant rain as uvv
and warm advctn increase ahead of the upper trof and deepening
sfc low, both moving northeast into the great lakes. A warm
front is forecast to move north through the area early Sunday
resulting in mild temps and more showery precip in the sfc low
warm sector during the day. A cold front passage late in the day
should end the precip.

High pressure is expected to build into the area early next
week, bringing fair wx an a return to near normal temps for late
feb.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Wednesday... Ifr snow will spread sw-ne through the terminals between 14-17z.

A transition to sleet freezing rain is likely at all terminals
around 20-22z, with all terminals outside of kabe krdg
transitioning to rain by around 00z (although ifr ceilings will
persist). Generally east-southeast winds below 10 knots.

Moderate confidence in precipitation type timings.

Wednesday night... Lingering freezing rain at kabe krdg likely
transitions to rain around 03-06z, all other terminals will see
rain with ifr ceilings. Rain tapers off w-e after about 06z,
although ifr-MVFR ceilings and potentially lowered visibilities
in mist likely persist after rain ends. Winds generally light
with llws possible after 06z. Moderate confidence
outlook...

Thursday... MVFR or lower conditions are possible in the
morning, improving toVFR by the afternoon. Winds becoming W nw
between 10-15 knots with some gustiness. High confidence.

Friday...VFR conditions with northwesterly winds under 10
knots. High confidence.

Saturday... GenerallyVFR conditions early but possibly lowering
to MVFR in the afternoon. Light southeast winds.

Saturday night... Widespread MVFR ifr conditions expected in rain
and fog. Variable winds mostly less than 10 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Sunday... Conditions should improve toVFR MVFR but lower at
times in showers. South winds becoming gusty and shifting to
west late in the day. Low confidence on timing.

Marine
Winds seas increase today with SCA conditions likely by this
afternoon and continuing tonight over the coastal waters. Also
expect some visibility reductions in snow, sleet, and rain today
into tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday... Marginal SCA conditions possible as seas hover near
5 feet and west winds gusts to around 20 knots.

Friday Saturday... Seas winds dipping below SCA by early Friday
morning with sub-sca conditions prevailing through Saturday.

Sunday... SCA conditions possible in gusty SW winds and building
seas.

Tides coastal flooding
Northeast flow turns east to southeast and increases today as
low pressure approaches from the south and west. The higher of
the two high tide cycles will occur this morning, when
departures should be around 1 2 foot above normal. Minor coastal
flooding thresholds may be touched in some spots this morning,
but not anticipating widespread minor coastal flooding advisory.

Although locally minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, do
not think it will be widespread enough to warrant a coastal
flood advisory. Elevated tides may continue into Thursday
morning.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for paz105.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for paz070-
071-104-106.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Thursday for paz054-055-
061-062.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for paz060-
101>103.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for njz008>010-
012>015.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
njz016>027.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Thursday for njz001-007.

De... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for dez001.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
dez002>004.

Md... Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz015-019-020.

Winter storm warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for mdz008-
012.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 6 am est
Thursday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Fitzsimmons
near term... Fitzsimmons johnson
short term... Fitzsimmons
long term... Amc fitzsimmons
aviation... Amc o'hara
marine... Amc fitzsimmons johnson
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 7 mi48 min 27°F 38°F1035.4 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 15 mi42 min E 9.9 G 12 27°F 34°F1035.2 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 16 mi48 min 1034.9 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 19 mi48 min 28°F 38°F1035.5 hPa
BDSP1 23 mi48 min 26°F 38°F1036 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi42 min E 2.9 G 6 27°F 39°F1035.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 29 mi42 min ENE 9.9 G 12 28°F 38°F1034.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 36 mi54 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 26°F 38°F1035.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi42 min S 2.9 G 5.1 27°F 38°F1036.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 44 mi120 min NE 4.1 30°F 1035 hPa26°F
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 49 mi60 min NE 5.1 32°F 1035 hPa25°F

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA13 mi36 minENE 30.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F23°F85%1036.4 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE13 mi39 minENE 70.25 miSnow Freezing Fog27°F25°F92%1035.9 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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2 days agoS3CalmN3E3S4S7SW5S6SE10SE5NE3CalmSE4E6CalmN6E7N7E3Calm3SW10W10W9

Tide / Current Tables for Auburn, Oldmans Creek, New Jersey
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Auburn
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Wed -- 03:45 AM EST     2.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:44 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:05 PM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:22 PM EST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.62.32.72.82.31.60.90.3-0.2-0.4-00.81.62.42.93.12.82.21.40.80.1-0.4-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Wed -- 02:21 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:25 AM EST     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:26 AM EST     2.32 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:39 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:59 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.70.5-1-1.9-2.2-2.2-1.9-1.6-0.51.22.22.21.80.9-0.5-1.6-2.1-2.3-2.2-2-1.501.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.