Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 8:23 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 102 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
This afternoon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers late. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.Wed - SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers.Wed night - N winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - N winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers in the morning. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.

ANZ400 102 Pm Edt Sun May 12 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay - High pressure lingers through the remainder of the day, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the east coast Wednesday through the end of the week. High pressure looks to return to end the weekend and start the new week.

FXUS61 KPHI 121728 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 128 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over southeastern Pennsylvania early this afternoon will move offshore this evening. High pressure builds south of the Mid- Atlantic region tonight into Monday. Another area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure currently southeastern Pennsylvania has an associated occluded front southeast into the southern Delmarva.
Rain to the north and east of the boundary is diminishing as the surface low pivots offshore by this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern shore of Maryland will continue east-southeastward for the rest of the afternoon to be offshore 20Z-22Z. Stronger cells will contain small hail and wind gusts to 30 knots.

Any shower/thunderstorm activity will quickly wane with the loss of surface-based instability by early evening. Clouds will diminish rapidly around 00Z as drier air filters in. Patchy fog will form overnight with radiational cooling and light winds.
Low temps will be in the 40s.

Quiet weather makes a brief return Monday with partly sunny skies and temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 70s under broad scale subsidence.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The brief reprieve ends shortly though as the ridge breaks down ahead of an advance cutoff low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley region. With a modest surge of PVA and height falls, there should be ample lift to support fairly widespread showers across the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
Severe progs aren't very supportive so we should be looking at more of the typical spring/summer showers with maybe a rumble of thunder and brief periods of moderate rainfall. PW isn't forecast to be high with respect to climo as the EFI is remarkable average for the week across the forecast region.
Ensemble guidance suggests about a 40% of seeing 0.4" or more with only a 15-20% chance of more than an inch. With rivers back towards normal streamflows and the rainfall not expected to fall over a short period of time, there are currently no flooding concerns.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Heading towards the end of the week the forecast will be highly dependent on how quickly the low pressure system through the middle of the week departs. There's considerable spread in guidance clusters from the ensemble suites this morning mostly dependent on timing. So the forecast is subject to change somewhat dramatically over the next few days until guidance becomes more consistent. Eventually another system will bring widely scattered showers but for the given reason just mentioned, confidence isn't sufficiently high on whether that is Sat or Sun. Thus the forecast call for low to moderate changes (30-40%) both days with slightly higher chances on Saturday.

Temps through the long term should be fairly seasonable in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50s most days.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

This afternoon...Ceilings 1-2K ft over PA/NJ/northern DE through the rest of the afternoon. Sct-bkn clouds with bases 3-5K ft over southern DE and Eastern shore MD will continue rest of the day. An area of light rain over NJ will continue through mid afternoon before dissipating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through Delmarva this afternoon. SE winds around 5-10 kt.

Tonight...Any lingering low ceilings will become few-skc 00Z-02Z. Ceilings 1-2K ft form once again after 06Z in southeast PA, northern Delmarva, and inland NJ with moisture trapped at loe levels and light winds.

Monday...Low clouds and fog burn off 12Z-14Z then VFR.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions expected with occasional showers.

Thursday...No significant weather expected.

MARINE
No marine headlines are in effect through Monday. East to Southeast winds 10 to 15 kts this afternoon will diminish to around 5-10 kts tonight. South wind around 10 knots Monday.
Seas of 3-4 feet. Scattered rain showers through this afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday...No marine headlines expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as wind gusts get near 25 kt. Significant wave heights approach 6 feet Wednesday. Occasional showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High tide has passed over the Atlantic Ocean however trapped water in the back bays will slowly empty through this afternoon.

Spotty minor flooding is also expected with tomorrow morning's high tide within the Chesapeake Bay.

No further tidal flooding issues are expected beyond this morning's high tide.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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Millside
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:03 AM EDT     5.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:27 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:19 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware, Tide feet

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:29 AM EDT     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:23 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:25 AM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:18 PM EDT     -0.07 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:22 PM EDT     1.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current, knots

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