Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 1:36 AM   Moonset 11:22 AM

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FXUS63 KILX 011708 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1208 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather today with isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thu mainly north of I-70 as warm front lifts north through southeast IL overnight and through central IL during Thu morning. Better chance of thunderstorms west of the IL river Thu afternoon/evening.

* Above average temperatures expected through the next 7 days, warmest temps Thursday with highs in the mid 80s and breezy south to SSW winds gusting up to 30 mph.

* Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday night and shifting into eastern IL during Friday as cold front moves eastward over the prairie states.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Cold front is pushing through Decatur this hour and will settle into areas south of I-70 early this afternoon. Not too much expected with this boundary in the short term, with the main focus later tonight as it begins to lift back north as a warm front.
Early look at the morning high-res models have been showing some convective development over central/southern Missouri later this afternoon and then tracking northeast, with the NAM nest most aggressive with some activity as far northeast as Champaign toward midnight. However, forecast soundings over a large part of the CWA have some decent amounts of dry air below 850 mb, not surprising given the northeast flow behind the front. Have backed off some on the northeast extent of evening PoP's as a result.

Temperatures for this afternoon appear to be on track, with highs in the upper 70s over a large part of the forecast area, with lower 80s near/south of I-70 as the front begins to slow down.

Geelhart

DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms tracked eastward across areas along and north of a Canton to Normal line during late evening and early overnight. Peoria picked up 0.39 inch rain and bringing their April rainfall total to 7.29 inches, bringing it up from the 12th to the 8th wettest April on record. The weakening area of convection was along the northern IL/IN border northeast of Vermilion county IL and moving away from central IL. This convection was out ahead of a weakening cold front extending from 1002 mb low pressure in northeast MN through eastern WI into nw IL approaching the IL river and into central MO. Mild temps were in the low to mid 60s with cooler 40s and 50s back in Iowa.

Cold front to continue to weaken as it pushes through southeast IL early this afternoon and passed through dry rest of today. Partly to mostly cloudy skies over central IL today with more sunshine in southeast IL. South to SW winds 7-15 mph and few gusts up to 20 mph to turn nw after frontal passage. Highs today range from the mid 70s over the IL river valley, to the lower 80s in southeast IL from I-70 southeast where cold front passes through later and more sunshine for solar heating.

A warm front lifting northward over southeast IL overnight and through central IL Thu morning, to bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to the area, with best chances north of I-70 overnight and early Thu morning. Lows overnight in the upper 50s central IL and lower 60s in southeast IL.

Surface low emerging over southeast CO by sunset to eject ne into the upper MS river valley by sunset Thu and lift warm front north of CWA by midday Thursday. Convection chances still look quite low on Thu east of the IL river, with best chances west of the IL river Thu afternoon especially late Thu afternoon when SPC day2 introduces marginal risk of severe from Galesburg to Quincy west into Thu evening. Breezy south to SSW winds Thu with gusts 25-30 mph to bring warm highs in the mid 80s, and warmest day since Sunday Apr 14th. Cold front moves eastward into central IL by dawn Friday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from west to east during Thu night. Best chances of showers and a few thunderstorms shift into eastern IL on Friday and lingering chances of showers Fri evening in southeast IL. Highs Friday in the low to mid 70s.

Dry conditions overnight Fri night and Saturday morning, then a weak disturbance could bring a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms into the area Sat afternoon and evening. Much of CWA appears dry overnight Sat night and Sunday, though we have low pops in southeast IL Sunday afternoon/evening. Highs in the 70s this weekend which is still a few degrees warmer than normal for early May.

Extended forecast models continue to show a strong/deepening mid/upper level trof over the western states and ejecting a stronger storm system into the central plains on Monday and surface and upper level low lifting into the Dakotas on Tue while pushing a frontal boundary into IL. We will likely see periods of showers and thunderstorms Mon through Tue and may have risk of strong to severe storms from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Highs in the mid to upper 70s Monday and upper 70s/lower 80s Tue. Trends of models continue to show heavier rainfall early next week focuses from Texas NNE to Iowa along with stronger risk of severe weather.

07

AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Northwest winds this afternoon trend more north/northeast this evening ahead of a warm front, which will lift across central Illinois early Thursday morning. Some concerns with a few thunderstorms overnight ahead of this front, though confidence/coverage is not high enough to add them to the TAF's at this time. However, based on HRRR guidance, if they were to occur, KPIA/KBMI would be the most likely location, in the 08-11Z time frame.

Following passage of the front, winds become more southerly and increase to 10-15 knots by mid morning.

Geelhart

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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