Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 12:39 PM   Moonset 1:38 AM

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FXUS63 KILX 170237 AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Lincoln IL 937 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- At least low chances for occasional rain and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday, with the best chances south of I-70. Amounts should generally be under a quarter inch, but some localized amounts in excess of an inch are possible, mainly south of I-70.

- A warming trend will take place through the weekend into Monday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday and MOnday.

UPDATE
Issued at 937 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A few showers still linger in eastern and southeastern IL this evening, but once that finally moves east, fog will become a concern, especially in areas where there was precip this afternoon. CMI already has dropped to 1/2 mile and am expecting more sites to drop after midnight. Will be making adjustments to the forecast for the overnight hours, to wx grids for fog. Rest of the forecast looks fine.

Auten

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A slow moving frontal system with a couple of embedded disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast into Saturday, with the primary disturbance targeting I-70 southward late tonight into Friday morning. Another band of convection currently near the frontal convergence zone in SE IA could also move into the Illinois River Valley late this afternoon/early evening.
Otherwise, once this afternoon's disturbance exits in the next few hours, generally light and low probability precipitation is in the forecast, mainly in the more diurnally favored afternoon periods. Low shear and low instability indicate low probabilities for severe weather.

High pressure should keep conditions dry Saturday night through Sunday night, then chances for a more significant weather system approach for early next week, with probabilities highest on Tuesday at this point. Rich moisture and increasingly strong shear indicate severe thunderstorms could take place at some point ahead of this frontal system, although predictability in timing/location of severe weather remains low.

Temperatures look to follow a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s Friday, rising to the mid and upper 80s by Sunday and Monday, and lows around 60 tonight, but only upper 60s by Monday night. Highs look to trend down into the 70s again by Wednesday behind the earlier mentioned cold front Tuesday/Tuesday night.

37

AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

All sites will begin as VFR with scattered CU and broken AC clouds. Unfortunately, given the flow, these clouds will continue through the evening hours til after midnight. The rain over the CMI area, should be east of the TAF site by 00z, then no precip is expected at any TAF site the rest of the TAF period. Overnight, Fog will develop overnight into tomorrow morning...given the light winds, the partly cloudy skies and ample low level moisture.
LIFR vis is possible at all sites, but given there could still be cloud cover preventing max radiational cooling, will go with a TEMPO group for the fog in the morning. By 14z, after the sun is fully up, vis will quickly improve at most sites, except PIA and BMI. Around noon all sites will be back to full VFR with scattered clouds. Winds will be light and variable through the 24hr period.

Auten

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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