Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Star, DE

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:04PM Thursday September 20, 2018 3:26 AM EDT (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 134 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Thu..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 134 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through Thursday before moving offshore Friday. A cold front will approach from the great lakes this weekend, then stall near or just south of the waters into early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters late Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Star, DE
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location: 39.75, -75.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 200120
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
920 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will continue building in from the north through
Thursday before pushing off the new england coast through early
Friday. A cold front will approach from the north and west on
Friday before passing through the area Friday night and Saturday
morning. The front will then stall just south of our area
through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds to our
north. The high begins pushing offshore through the beginning of
next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
For the evening update, temp grids were adjusted slightly across
the lehigh valley, berks co, and chester co. Sky grids were also
adjusted along the coastal plain as more clouds have settled in
across monmouth and ocean counties. Further west, west of the
i95 corridor, skies were still mostly clear.

No change in the wx grids as we continue to think tonight will
feature more low stratus vs. Fog. We've kept the chance of
drizzle in the grids east of i95.

Previous discussion...

the remnant low of florence lies about 250 miles SE of atlantic
city, and will continue to move out to sea. An area of low
clouds and stratus over new england continues to drift to the
south and west towards new jersey this evening, and should
overspread the region from east to west later tonight.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front lies just to the north and west of
the local area and will drift through the region tonight.

Lower clouds will overspread the area from NE to SW overnight.

The METAR at kblm is already bkn014. Looks like the low clouds
may arrive early enough E SE to preclude much in the way of
fog, so I have cautiously removed it from the grids except nw
where the mostly clr skies will remain longest. The drizzle fcst
is tricky. Plenty of low clouds expected, but will the last
1000 ft of the atmosphere saturate? Probably a better chc for
drizzle back towards the coast, so trimmed the drizzle back to
those areas, and hopefully won't have to re-expand back across
the pa NW nj overnight. Fcst confid in fog and drizzle is rather
low.

Lows tonight generally in the low 50s in the southern poconos, and
otherwise in the upper 50s to low 60s, except for philly, which
should be in the mid to upper 60s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Weak cold front washes out as it crosses the area, and whatever
remains of the front will become nearly stationary just south
of delmarva. With high pressure passing north of the area, winds
take on a northeast flow in the morning that eventually becomes
southeast in the afternoon. This onshore flow looks to keep
abundant low clouds across the region for most of the morning,
then those clouds will gradually lift in the afternoon.

A much cooler day on tap with highs in the low to mid 70s, and
cooler along the shores.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
By late Thursday, high pressure will be moving offshore to our north
and east as and upper ridge axis passes to our north. This westerly
flow and dry air aloft should keep the sensible weather dry and
pleasant through early Friday with highs in the 70s to around 80
degrees and lows in the 60s. By Friday evening, a cold front will
begin approaching our region from the north and west bring the
potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily along
and north of i-78. As the front begins moving in to our area,
diurnal instability will be rapidly diminishing resulting in much
lower pops through the overnight hours as it pushes toward the i-95
corridor and points south. The exact timing of this front will
dictate the evolution of convection across our area.

As the front stalls to our south on Saturday, chances for rain
showers will exist across our southern zones along and north of the
boundary. Coverage of showers will be dependent on just how far
south the front stalls, but kept pops largely at slight chance now
due to uncertainty.

Sunday through Wednesday... Stationary front will remain stalled to
our south. There is still some discrepancy as to whether the rain
will remain off to our south, or if it will override into the
southern portions of our area. The ECMWF seems to push the front
farther to the south than the GFS at this point. Walked the middle
of the road and kept the chance for showers over the southern
portions of the area into Monday for now.

The front begins to nudge to the north as a warm front ahead of the
next low pressure system late Monday into the day Tuesday as high
pressure shifts out the northeast and onshore easterly flow dies
down. Temperatures gradually warm from the upper 70s to low 80s by
Wednesday and Thursday as warm air advection takes over. Moist,
southerly flow will continue, thus keeping the chance for showers
through the middle part of the week. Pwat values look to remain near
or just above 2 inches, so heavy rain could accompany any showers
that do form. If added instability leads to elevated convective
chances, we may need to watch the risk for flooding. Too far out to
tell for now. Best chances for rain remain to our south, and
gradually overspread the area by the middle of next week.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MVFR CIGS developing across the terminals. There is a
low chance for ifr cigs, especially in the pre-dawn hours.

Patchy fog may also develop nw, but this looks less likely than
development of low stratus most other areas. Low confidence. Ne
winds less than 10 kt, becoming lgt vrb this evening.

Thursday... MVFR CIGS for most of the morning, gradually lifting
toVFR in the afternoon. Lgt vrb winds, becoming e-se less than
10 kt in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MostlyVFR expected with light south winds.

Friday... MostlyVFR with increasing south winds.

Friday night... Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
with brief MVFR conditions otherwiseVFR. South winds less than
10 knots becoming northwest late.

Saturday through Monday... GenerallyVFR.

Marine
Although marginal, like for the nj ocean waters, we have issued
a SCA for the de ocean waters. The difference is timing. While
the SCA for nj run from midnight tonight through 1 pm tomorrow,
the de SCA runs from 6 am tomorrow through the day.

Previous discussion...

e-ne winds 15-20 kt will become SE 10-15 kt on Thursday. Ocean
seas will build to around 5 feet on the nj ocean waters tonight
and will subside to sub-sca levels Thursday afternoon. Will
hoist a small craft advisory from tonight through Thursday
afternoon as the onshore flow should be strong enough to elevate
the seas. Opted for a general SCA as opposed to a SCA for
hazardous seas as there may be some gusts to 25 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Generally sub-sca conditions expected.

Friday through Saturday... SCA conditions possible with passage
of cold front.

Saturday night through Sunday night... Sub-sca conditions
possible.

Monday... SCA conditions possible.

Rip currents...

there is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents at nj and de beaches Thursday, as there
is a medium-period easterly or southeasterly swell along with
onshore flow.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Thursday for anz450>452.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz453.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm edt Thursday for anz454-
455.

Synopsis... Staarmann
near term... Kruzdlo mps
short term... Mps
long term... Davis staarmann
aviation... Davis staarmann
marine... Davis mps staarmann kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 15 mi39 min Calm G 1.9 68°F 76°F1018.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 16 mi39 min SE 7 G 8.9 71°F 71°F1017.8 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 20 mi39 min 70°F 73°F1018 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 37 mi45 min 70°F 70°F1017.5 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 38 mi39 min E 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 77°F1017.8 hPa
BDSP1 41 mi39 min 70°F 72°F1018.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 44 mi39 min E 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 74°F1018 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 49 mi117 min ESE 1.9 71°F 1018 hPa70°F

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE11 mi36 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds69°F66°F93%1018.1 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA16 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair64°F60°F88%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from ILG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW7NW6NW6N7N10N11N9N10N8N10N8N10N7N8N7N5N4N4NE4CalmE5E5E5
1 day agoS11S9S8S8SW8SW9S11SW9SW9SW9NW6N6N9N9N7--NW3--CalmNW4NW3CalmNW3NW5
2 days agoCalmE4E6E8E5E4E4SE6SE7S11SE11S13
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for Millside, RR. bridge, Delaware
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake and Delaware Canal, Maryland/Delaware Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.