Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pedrick, NJ

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Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:24PM Monday July 23, 2018 1:57 AM EDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 1214 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, then a chance of showers late.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms early in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms in the late morning and afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Showers likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and overnight.
Tue..SE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1214 Am Edt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. The surface low pressure system that affected our area continues to move off to the northwest into the great lakes and southern ontario region. Another area of low pressure centered over the ohio river valley will continue to slowly move off to the south during the first half of this week. SEveral disturbances are expected to move around the low, continuing the unsettled weather through the week. A cold front may move into the region Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pedrick, NJ
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location: 39.76, -75.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 230419
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1219 am edt Mon jul 23 2018

Synopsis
The surface low pressure system that affected our area continues to
move off to the northwest into the great lakes and southern ontario
region. Another area of low pressure centered over the ohio river
valley will continue to slowly move off to the south during the
first half of this week. Several disturbances are expected to move
around the low, continuing the unsettled weather through the week. A
cold front may move into the region Friday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Showers and thunderstorms have become more scattered and less
organized cross the region. The heaviest area is lifting north
through morris and sussex counties, where some poor drainage
flooding is possible.

Additional showers may move north and affect the area by
daybreak, although activity may not be quite as heavy as earlier
tonight.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The expansive closed low to our west begins to try to break
down some and sink southward during the day Monday but never
fully breaks down. However, it will keep a steady southerly flow
across the east coast through the day Monday. The surface low
will continue to sink southward into the southeastern states,
with a trough extending northward into the ohio valley and a
stationary front extending northeastward into the mid atlantic.

A steady southeast flow at the surface will continue across our
area through the day Monday as well.

There will continue to be multiple short wave vorticity impulses
moving across the area during the day Monday, continuing to lead to
areas of enhanced lift. There remains some instability across the
area through the day Monday as well. This will continue to lead to
periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms through the day
Monday. With pw values climbing to over 2 inches, periods of heavy
rainfall will again be possible. Since there is uncertainty of where
the heavy rainfall will develop and set up, we did not issue a flash
flood watch for Monday at this time. However, it looks like it may
extend along a line from the poconos, through southwest new jersey,
into delaware and areas westward may have the greatest threat to
have heavy rainfall. There will at least remain the potential for poor
drainage and urbanized flooding on Monday. Severe potential again
does not look overly impressive as shear values are weak to moderate
at best, and mid level lapse rates are quite low. Still, any of the
stronger updrafts could produce some stronger winds.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
This story remains the same... Our unsettled wet weather pattern
continues through most of the week, with several rounds of
showers and storms likely through at least Thursday, possibly
continuing into next weekend.

A strong bermuda high to the east will keep a deep mid-level trough
stalled to our west over the upcoming week. This trough will
continue to dig over the eastern u.S., slowly filling as it does
so. Several short wave vorticity maxima will pivot around the
trough, bringing persistent rounds of showers and thunderstorms
to the area through the week. By Thursday, the GFS and ecmwf
show the trough having mostly filled and beginning to finally
lift off to the northeast as a deepening trough moves over the
midwest.

Monday night through Wednesday... Deep southerly flow is
expected to persist through Wednesday, drawing tropical moisture
well into our area. Forecast soundings are nearly saturated
through the troposphere, which make forecast pwats near 2 inches
unsurprising. There will likely be some instability each day,
especially where any breaks in the cloud cover occur.

Thunderstorms that do develop will further progress (flash)
flood concerns, especially if training occurs. That is a real
possibility, as guidance suggests a single axis of heavy
rainfall will meander over our area through Wednesday. The humid
airmass will limit the diurnal pattern, keeping highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low
70s.

Thursday... The developing trough over the midwest will aid in
the formation of a surface low pressure system and cold front to
our northwest. A strong jet MAX directly to our north will
position us in the entrance region alongside the front. With
ample moisture already in place, more heavy rainfall is likely
to occur Thursday. The front will attempt to move through
Thursday night, but may washout stall just offshore.

Friday through Sunday... Another shortwave may then move east
along the remnant boundary by next weekend. Highs Friday and
Saturday will likely be slightly warmer, making it to the upper
80s. Lows are likely to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Exact rainfall amounts are still uncertain, but there is increasing
potential for several inches of rainfall to accumulate over much of
the area through the week. Wpc has 3-5 inches forecast over our
area, with highest amounts over eastern pennsylvania. However,
amounts may wind up being much higher than this in a few spots.

Aviation 04z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Conditions will continue to lower back to MVFR
through the evening hours, and likely lower to ifr during the
overnight hours. Scattered showers will continue during the
overnight hours, which may lower visibilities at times. Wind
gusts should drop off this evening, but a steady southeast flow
of 5-10 knots will continue overnight.

Monday... Ifr conditions will lift to MVFR during the morning
hours, then MVFR conditions may continue through the day Monday.

Periods of showers are likely through the day Monday, some
which could be moderate to heavy at times. Additionally,
isolated thunderstorms also remain possible. There is the
possibility that some showers, or thunderstorms if they develop,
may temporarily lower visibilities to ifr at times. Winds will
remain out of the southeast, and increase to 10-15 knots with
gusts 15-20 knots by midday into the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday night through Friday... Variable conditions with numerous
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This activity may be more
organized Monday night and Tuesday across our western terminals
(rdg and abe) while terminals near the coast (miv and acy) have
a better opportunity to see breaks in the rain. Showers and
storms could become more widespread heading into Wednesday and
Thursday. S-se winds generally 10-15 kt each day and 5-10 kt
each night. Forecast confidence: low for timing of each round of
showers and storms.

Marine
The small craft advisory remains in effect for the atlantic ocean
coastal waters tonight through Monday as seas remain 5-8 feet. Winds
will likely also begin gusting 25-30 knots later tonight into
Monday. Also, the delaware bay has been included in the small craft
advisory for tonight through Monday as winds are expected to begin
gusting around 25 knots tonight through Monday as well.

Outlook...

Monday night and Tuesday... SCA extended through Tuesday for our
coastal waters with seas expected to remain around 5 ft. Winds
could gust to 25 kt at times.

Tuesday night through Thursday... SCA conditions expected. Wave
heights on our ocean waters are expected to remain in the 4 to 7
ft range with S winds in the 10-20 kt range. Winds may
occasionally gust to 25 kt, particularly on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Friday... Seas may finally drop below 5 ft as southerly winds
relax.

Rip currents...

high risk of rip currents is in effect through Monday. The surf
is expected to remain agitated on Monday as southeasterly winds
gusting 25-30 knots continue, and seas remain around 5-8 feet
with swells around 8-10 seconds.

Equipment
The kdox radar will remain offline until parts and a maintenance
kit to replace the azimuth and elevation motors are received.

The current estimated return to service is early in the new week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through this evening for njz014-024>026.

De... High rip current risk through this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Tuesday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Davis mps
near term... Fitzsimmons robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Fitzsimmons klein robertson mps
marine... Klein robertson mps
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 3 mi40 min 79°F 80°F1014.2 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 16 mi40 min SSE 12 G 19 78°F 76°F1013.9 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 17 mi40 min 1013.2 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 18 mi46 min 79°F 80°F1014.2 hPa
BDSP1 23 mi40 min 79°F 81°F1015.1 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 27 mi40 min ESE 5.1 G 8.9 77°F 79°F1013.6 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 36 mi82 min SSE 5.1 G 8 77°F 81°F1015.1 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 43 mi40 min S 7 G 13 77°F 80°F1015.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 46 mi148 min ESE 7 77°F 1014 hPa77°F

Wind History for Delaware City, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE12 mi67 minSE 1210.00 miOvercast78°F75°F90%1014.2 hPa
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA12 mi2.1 hrsSE 78.00 miOvercast77°F75°F94%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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SE14S10S8SW13S10S8S8S6CalmSE8
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1 day agoE5E6E7E9E8E9E11E12E10E10E11E14NE15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmE4E65E7SE55SE7E8SE4SE11SE11SE10SE9S5S4E5E4E6

Tide / Current Tables for Pedricktown, Oldmans Creek, New Jersey
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Pedricktown
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Mon -- 02:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:30 PM EDT     4.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.13.42.51.810.40.51.22.12.93.84.13.83.12.31.50.90.40.41.12.13.144.6

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Mon -- 02:12 AM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:33 AM EDT     -1.45 knots Min Ebb
Mon -- 04:22 AM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:49 AM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:19 PM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT     1.14 knots Min Flood
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.5-1.5-1.4-0.60.50.911.10.5-0.5-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.4-1.2-0.60.51.11.11.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.