Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Indianapolis, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:30PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:25 PM EST (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indianapolis , IN
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location: 39.78, -86.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Indianapolis, IN
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Fxus63 kind 232027
afdind
area forecast discussion
national weather service indianapolis in
325 pm est Sat feb 23 2019

Update
The aviation section has been updated below.

Synopsis
Issued at 322 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
an intensifying storm system will track into the great lakes late
tonight with a cold front coming through the region this evening.

Rain and storms are possible ahead of the front this evening. Behind
the front... High winds will impact the region Sunday as temperatures
fall. Colder conditions are expected for the upcoming week with a
few opportunities for wintry precipitation Wednesday into next
weekend.

Near term rest of this afternoon and tonight
Issued at 322 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
low pressure getting its act together this afternoon over the
southern plains. So far today... Bulk of the rain and convection has
remained to the southwest of the area... But is gradually getting
closer to the region. 20z temperatures range from the mid 40s to low
50s.

The aforementioned low will continue to strengthen rapidly as it
lifts northeast in tandem with an impressively deepening upper low.

Both features will lift into the great lakes tonight... The surface
low likely at a strength of 20 to 25 mb deeper by 12z Sunday than
its current strength. Such a strong... Dynamically forced system will
produce a plethora of impacts for central indiana this afternoon and
tonight.

The first concern has been the severe weather potential... Especially
immediately ahead of and along the cold front which will swing
across the forecast area from west to east this evening. While the
focus for greatest and most widespread threat for severe storms has
been focused south of the region over the tennessee and mississippi
valleys... Remained a bit concerned that the northern end of any sort
of thin... Low topped convective line ahead of the front could manage
to pull down stronger winds present in the upper levels of the
boundary layer. Still think that is a possibility... But confidence
has lowered in the severe potential for central indiana as
convection further south appears to be mitigating more appreciable
moisture return north into the ohio valley. Bulk of the low level
forcing associated with the jet also has shifted further south than
previously thought... Closer to the ohio river and points south.

In a nutshell... Convection and the threat for thunder continues
through the evening and while strong wind gusts may accompany
stronger convective cells this evening... Anticipate that the overall
convective structure across the forecast area will likely be
disjointed and disorganized with better organized storms focused
south of the ohio river into the tennessee and mississippi valleys
where better instability and much deeper forcing aloft will exist.

The thermodynamic structure through the boundary layer remains less
favorable for severe potential with hints of an inversion which may
limit transport somewhat of the 60kt winds at 3-4kft. Have lowered
precip totals as well with heavier rains focused south of the
region. Expect most of the area will see anywhere from a third of an
inch to perhaps close to three quarters of an inch over far southern
counties.

The cold front should be east of the forecast area around or shortly
after midnight with perhaps even a few hours of brief clearing as
the dry slot swings across the area. Focus will then turn to what
have felt was always going to be the most impactful part of this
system to central indiana... The potential for an extended period of
strong gradient winds. A secondary cold front will move across the
forecast area in the predawn hours with winds picking up
dramatically near or just before daybreak. Will discuss in greater
detail in the short term section below.

Temps... Temperatures are likely to continue rising into the
evening... Perhaps climbing into the 50s across much of the forecast
area before slipping back late tonight behind the initial cold
front. As the secondary front passes in the 10-13z time period...

will likely see an immediate 10 degree drop in its wake.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday
Issued at 322 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
forecast challenges are focused on a significant and extended threat
for high winds on Sunday as the strong low pressure moves through
the northern great lakes.

As mentioned above... The secondary cold front will serve as the
kicker towards a much higher surge of winds across central indiana
Sunday morning. In its wake... An intense surge of cold advection
will follow. This combined with continued 50-60kt winds found in the
2.5-5kft layer and potential for dry adiabatic flow through the
boundary layer should enable these stronger boundary layer winds
being pulled to the surface. Lapse rates remain steep below 900-
850mb for much of Sunday and at times... Model soundings even hint at
weak instability. This may also help to produce a short period with
light rain or snow showers along and immediately behind the
secondary front Sunday morning.

The above thoughts have led to revisions and upgrades in our wind
headlines for Sunday. Where the upper threshold is a bit higher in
potentially meeting warning criteria north of i-70... Have replaced
the watch with a high wind warning beginning at 09z Sunday and
continuing through early evening. While confidence remains lower
than desired in actually meeting warning criteria... The potential is
close enough to justify the issuance of a warning. Think northern
portions of the forecast area stand the chance to see peak gusts
push 60 mph Sunday morning at times... Perhaps even higher
considering winds present aloft and such a tight pressure gradient
between the deepening surface low and high pressure over the
canadian prairies. South of the warning area... The rest of the
forecast area will go under a wind advisory beginning at 09z with
peak gusts likely to 50mph or so. Considering the saturated
ground... Trees may have an easier time being blown over even with
wind gusts into the 40s.

Winds will gradually weaken by Sunday evening as the storm system
moves away from the area and the gradient relaxes. Expect breezy
conditions to linger Sunday night with winds fully diminishing Monday
as the high pressure expands southeast into the region. The presence
of the high over the ohio valley will bring a dry and chilly start
to the workweek. Clouds will increase across northern portions of
the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday as moisture streams
into the lower great lakes. At this point... Moisture profiles are
focused more aloft with dry air lingering in the boundary layer.

Cannot entirely rule out some flurries Tuesday... But confidence too
low for a mention at this time.

Temps... Highs Sunday will occur right at daybreak with the secondary
front passing through. As mentioned in the near term section...

likely to be a near 10 degree drop as this front passes followed by
steadily falling temps for much of the rest of the day. Remainder of
the short term will see a return to winter weather as temperatures
will dip to below normal levels. An overall model blend looked
reasonable for much of the rest of the period as highs Monday and
Tuesday will be mainly in the 30s with lows in the teens and lower
20s.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Issued at 206 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
models in good agreement that the synoptic setup will feature west
coast ridging which will allow several waves to quickly move through
the great lakes and ohio valley in the fast flow aloft. The first
few will be weak but a strong upper low will move into the great
lakes by Saturday. Blend suggests there will be off and on snow
showers through the period. Am not confident in timing enough to
change the blend.

Blend near normal temperatures look reasonable.

Aviation discussion for the 23 21z ind TAF update
Issued at 325 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
had to bring in ifr conditions per trends.

Previous discussion follows...

issued at 1225 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
moderate confidence that MVFR conditions will deteriorate to ifr 21z
or so. Bmg already was seeing ifr ceilings, so it could even be
sooner at the other sites. Meanwhile, high resolution rapid refresh
suggests showers and possible a few storms will be increasing in
coverage after 21z as well. Thunder chances too low to include in
tafs, however.

Non-convective winds will also be an issue especially after 06z with
gusts over 40 knots possible after 10z. Winds will start off
southeast and become southwest and west after 05z.

Ind watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Sunday for inz051>057-
060>065-067>072.

High wind warning from 4 am to 7 pm est Sunday for inz021-
028>031-035>049.

Synopsis... Ryan
near term... Ryan
short term... Ryan
long term... .Mk
aviation... Mk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Indianapolis International Airport, IN7 mi32 minESE 104.00 miFog/Mist46°F45°F96%1009.4 hPa
Indianapolis, Eagle Creek Airpark, IN8 mi33 minESE 74.00 miFog/Mist47°F45°F93%1009 hPa
INDIANAPOLIS, IN18 mi31 minSE 72.00 miLight Drizzle44°F43°F100%1009.8 hPa
Shelbyville Municipal Airport, IN23 mi33 minESE 87.00 miOvercast48°F46°F93%1009.9 hPa

Wind History from IND (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E8E10E11E11E8E9E9E9E13E9E11E9E11E11E9E7E10E10E9E9E8E9E10
1 day agoSW8W8W126W8W9W6NW8NW8NW9N5NW6N8N6N4NE6N5N5NE7N8NE8NE5NE8NE9
2 days agoE12SE12SE10SE11SE9SE6S6SW5SW10SW12W12W16
G20
W16W13W10W12W15W9W7W6SW6SW7SW6SW6

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Indianapolis, IN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Indianapolis, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.