Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:13 AM   Moonset 3:15 PM

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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 711 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon - .
Tonight - E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog this evening. A chance of rain this evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening. Sun - SE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Mon night - W winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 711 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Sunday night for portions of the waters.

FXUS61 KCTP 042312 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 712 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cloudy skies with areas of light rain and drizzle, along with areas of fog, will persist throughout the weekend. High pressure slowly building eastward from the central Great Lakes will bring some drying to northern and central Pennsylvania by Monday and Tuesday, but the south will remain on the cloudy side with some showers. The pattern remains unsettled mid to late week with weather systems bringing rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday, and Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Increasing boundary layer convergence occurring over central PA early this evening thanks to freshening 850 mb jet in rich deep layer moisture environment combined with easterly llvl maritime flow. This is supporting widespread light rain and drizzle throughtout central PA and holding temperatures from 48 to 52F over most areas, a far cry from last week's widespread 80s.

Conditions change very little over the next 6 to 12 hours with rich deep layer moisture over 1.25" PW advecting into the region on broad southwest flow west of the upper ridge axis. LLVL easterly flow around 1029mb sfc high in the Gulf of Maine will continue to advect maritime airmass into eastern PA. Model censensus of .25-.5" QPF should result across the area into Sunday morning. Periods of mainly light rain and drizzle will persist overnighit with areas of especially higher terrain fog expected as well. Temps won't wander far from current readings through 7AM Sunday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday looks to be another relatively cool day for early May due to a persistent southeast flow off of the Atlantic. However, a slight rebound in warmth is expected over the western and southwestern periphery of the CWA as steadier rain tapers off.
Fcst highs range from 55F in the Endless mtns and southern Poconos to ~70F in the far southwest corner of the CWA (near Confluence in Somerset County).

Scattered diurnal convection appears likely to the west of the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon which could spill into central PA late in the day as CAPE values increase. The SPC MRGL risk SWO clips a portion of Warren County. Everywhere else remains under general thunder.

The CAD pattern loses its grip Sunday night into Monday as a weak cold front presses southeast from Lake Erie. This will allow for the possibility of night time convection along the cold front. Guidance has been bullish on fog development and the mention of it has increased in coverage in the wx grids. Fcst lows Sunday night are +10-20F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F.

Temperatures are forecast to bounce on Monday with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. High pressure and low pwat air should dry out the northern tier, but nearly stationary frontal zone will maintain a chance of showers/t-storms over south central PA through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unsettled weather is expected for the long term period with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. The first chance will come on Tuesday as a warm front lifts north of the area and moisture advection increases. The best chance for any showers or storms on Tuesday will be across the southwestern counties.
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the period with highs in the upper 70s and 80s as the region will be in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. Most model guidance shows a weak wave of low pressure tracking to our north during the day on Wednesday along the warm front ahead of the primary low.
This will bring more showers and storms to the area.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms appears to be on Thursday as a cold front moves through. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with ensembles showing PWATs approaching 1.3 inches across the southern tier along with surface CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. A few stronger thunderstorms appear possible as well, as deep layer shear begins to increase as the upper level trough moves in.

Temperatures will be on a downward trend behind the cold front and into the weekend. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 50s across the northern and western mountains to the mid to upper 60s for the southeast. There is some disagreement in the models with respect to rain chances through the end of the period, but scattered showers appear likely as a couple of shortwaves ride through the southern edge of an upper low positioned to our north.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A moist southeast flow preceding a slow-moving warm front in the Ohio Valley will produce low cigs and rain across the forecast area through at least Sunday morning. At 22Z, some MVFR cigs are noted across the eastern half of the state. However, all guidance points to deteriorating conditions overnight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs by early Sunday morning. LIFR cigs are most likely where the southeast flow is forced to ascend the higher terrain of Central PA. Strengthening south-southwest winds aloft will result in marginal LLWS later tonight into Sunday morning.
Bufkit soundings indicate the best chance of LLWS criteria being met will across the northern tier of the state.

Little improvement in flying conditions are expected over most of Central PA Sunday, as a moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic persists. However, model soundings indicate some modest improvement is possible late in the day along and west of the spine of the Alleghenies.

Outlook...

Mon...AM low cigs/fog likely.

Tue...Patchy AM valley fog possible, mainly Southern PA. Isold PM tsra impacts possible Western PA.

Wed...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns.

Thu...Rain/low cigs possible. PM tsra impacts possible southwest PA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Chain Bridge
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Sat -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:41 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:18 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
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