Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:13 AM   Moonset 3:15 PM

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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 738 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Today - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Tonight - E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Mon - S winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - E winds 5 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 738 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through tonight before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

FXUS61 KCTP 041130 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 730 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Noticeable cool down for the first weekend of May with cloudy skies and periods of rain -Remaining unsettled next week with a gradual warming trend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MRMS radar at 08Z shows ~100mi wide band of light to moderate rain along a SW to NE oriented 500mb vorticity axis extending from the southwest corner of PA into the Endless Mtns north of KIPT. Expect this corridor of rain to remain in-place through daybreak with more rain on the way to start the first weekend in May.

The latest hires model guidance supports periods of rain throughout today and into tonight ahead of an upper level shortwave lifting out of the Tennessee Valley. The associated southerly low level jet and plume of higher pwats will overrun a dome of cool/stable air (entrenched within a CAD pattern configuration) to bring 0.25-0.75" of rain to the area.
This pattern will also ensure a significant cool down from recent days with fcst max temps in the 50-60F range or 10 to 25 degrees cooler vs. yesterday depending on location. Not much change in sensible wx overnight with periods of rain continuing with lows in the 45-50F range or +5-10F above early May climo.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Sunday looks to be another relatively cool day for early May due to a persistent southeast flow off of the Atlantic. However, a slight rebound in warmth is expected over the western and southwestern periphery of the CWA as steadier rain tapers off.
Fcst highs range from 55F in the Endless mtns and southern Poconos to ~70F in the far southwest corner of the CWA (near Confluence in Somerset County).

Scattered diurnal convection appears likely to the west of the Alleghenies Sunday afternoon which could spill into central PA late in the day. THe SPC MRGL risk SWO clips a portion of Warren County.

The CAD pattern loses its grip Sunday night into Monday as a weak cold front presses southeast from Lake Erie. Guidance has been bullish on fog development and will continue mention in the wx grids. Fcst lows Sunday night are +10-20F above climo for early May in the low 50s to near 60F.

Temperatures are forecast to bounce on Monday with fcst maxes getting back into the 70-80F range. High pressure and low pwat air should dry out the northern tier, but nearly stationary frontal zone will maintain a chance of showers/t-storms over south central PA through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warm and generally dry conditions are likely Tuesday. However, a warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley could result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the southwest counties. The bulk of medium range guidance supports a very warm Wednesday with scattered convection, as the area briefly breaks into the warm sector ahead of a cold front pushing in from the Grt Lks.

Model consensus supports a better chance for a more widespread rainfall Thursday, associated with a deepening upstream trough and wave of low pressure riding along the stalled cold front just south of PA. The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area by Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered, diurnally-driven convection Friday, along with a downward trend in temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The low cigs will continue to expand over the next several hours, with the remaining TAF sites likely dropping to MVFR or lower by mid morning. Confidence in MVFR cigs after 12z is lowest at LNS, where much of the hires guidance shows LNS on the eastern periphery of the MVFR cloud deck through much of the day.

IFR/LIFR conds have already developed across the western airfields (BFD, JST, and AOO) and will expand eastward towards UNV by 14-18z. However, it may take until evening for IFR cigs to reach the Susq valley. Confidence is low in the timing of the lower cigs. Periods of light rain will continue through the day.

Southeast winds of 5-15 kts will continue through the TAF period, with gusts up to 25 kts. LLWS may become a concern from 00z-18z Sun as a southerly LLJ develops with 2kft winds 35-45 kts, strongest through north central PA. The LLJ will also produce the most widespread and heaviest rainfall during this period.

Outlook...

Sun...Widespread restrictions due to low cigs. SHRA likely with a slight chance of TSRA. Areas of fog poss Sun night.

Mon-Wed...AM fog/clouds poss. PM -SHRA possible areawide.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Chain Bridge
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Sat -- 12:04 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:41 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:18 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, D.C., Tide feet

Chain Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:36 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:13 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chain Bridge, one mile below, D.C., Tide feet

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