Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oak Valley, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:10PM Monday January 22, 2018 9:15 PM EST (02:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 650 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am est Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S late. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers after midnight. A chance of showers late. Areas of fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 3 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. Showers until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers after midnight.
ANZ400 650 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will track northeastward through tonight and reach the saint lawrence river valley and northern new england late Tuesday. An associated strong cold front will move through our region Tuesday afternoon. High pressure is expected to build into our region during the balance of the week, before moving out to sea Saturday. A cold front then arrives on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oak Valley, NJ
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location: 39.8, -75.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 222347
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
647 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeastward through tonight and reach the
saint lawrence river valley and northern new england late Tuesday.

An associated strong cold front will move through our region Tuesday
afternoon. High pressure is expected to build into our region during
the balance of the week, before moving out to sea Saturday. A cold
front then arrives on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
For the 630 pm update, adjusted the hourly temperature, dew point
and wind grids based on the latest observations then blended in the
lamp guidance for a time. Less thicker cloud cover across much of
the area along with light winds has allowed temperatures for many
areas to drop faster thus far. Delayed the fog mention across the
north a bit.

A potent closed low will move into the great lakes and ohio valley
late tonight. This will drive surface low pressure into the great
lakes region by daybreak. A surface warm front sitting over the
northern half of our area this evening, should shift northward
gradually through the night as a strengthening low-level jet
arrives. The arrival of the low-level jet late tonight should allow
for some showers to begin developing, however the more pronounced
showers look to arrive closer to daybreak across the western areas.

Some fog (perhaps drizzle) should occur mainly north of the warm
front especially in the southern poconos to northwest new jersey.

Otherwise, breaks in the clouds will tend to fill in and then lower
overnight. As some higher surface dew points advect in overnight
over the colder waters, some marine fog may develop and spread into
the coastal areas. This however could be limited by stronger flow
developing especially just above the surface. It appears that any
thunder chances are mostly after daybreak, therefore removed the
isolated mentioned for tonight.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Low pressure will track from michigan across ontario into quebec by
late in the day Tuesday. This will drag a strong cold front across
our area with numerous showers. Showers are expected to quickly
overspread the area in the morning and persist into the afternoon.

The forecast models, especially the nam, are depicting enough
elevated CAPE for at least a few thunderstorms. Also, worth noting,
the mid level lapse rates will be fairly steep (near 7 c km) with a
very strong low-level jet ahead of the cold front (around 60 knots
at 925 mb). If convective elements are able to become surface-based,
there is more of a concern for locally damaging winds mixing down to
the surface. This is especially for southeast pa, southern nj, and
delmarva where the instability will be the greatest. The storm
prediction center has these areas in a marginal risk for severe
storms. The limiting factor will be that the low levels will be
fairly stable so confidence of severe weather is not high. The most
likely window for this to occur looks to be mid morning through
early afternoon after which time the cold front will clear the area
with showers ending. Also, pwats will be up to 1.25 inches so
locally heavy rain will occur which can lead to local poor drainage
flooding.

Highs Tuesday range from near 50 across the southern poconos to the
upper 50s to mid upper 60s across SE pa, southern nj, and
delmarva.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Surface low pressure is forecast to be located in maine on Tuesday
evening. The system is expected to strengthen as it moves across
atlantic canada on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The gradient between
the departing low and high pressure building into our region from
the west should result in brisk conditions developing for Wednesday.

A west northwest wind around 10 to 20 mph is anticipated at that
time.

Surface high pressure should move from the south central states on
Wednesday to the carolinas and virginia late on Thursday. The center
of the high is anticipated to slide over the western north atlantic
on Friday and Saturday. The air mass is forecast to bring dry
weather conditions for the period from Wednesday into Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonable on Wednesday and Thursday
with a warming trend as we head toward and into the weekend.

Low pressure and a cold front are forecast to approach from the west
over the weekend. There is a spread in the guidance solutions
regarding the timing of the arrival of the cold front in our region.

We will carry a chance of showers for Sunday and Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR conditions for awhile, then ceilings lower to MVFR
mainly after 08z. Some showers are expected to develop mainly after
about 08z. A southwesterly low-level jet at 2,000 feet increases
late tonight, leading to low-level wind shear. Local MVFR
visibilities are possible due to fog. Winds variable direction at 5
knots or less, become southerly 5-10 knots especially from phl south
and east.

Tuesday... A period of ifr conditions as showers and possibly a few
embedded thunderstorms move through, ending from west to east in the
afternoon. Downpours will locally reduce the visibility more.

Southwesterly low-level jet at 2,000 feet of 40-50 knots will
diminish from west to east in the afternoon. Southerly surface winds
10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots (highest near and south east
of phl), become west-northeast later in the afternoon. Some stronger
wind gusts are possible with heavier showers or a thunderstorm.

Since the threat of thunder is more isolated, it is not included in
the tafs.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
For tonight, south winds should begin to increase, especially
after midnight, with speeds reaching small-craft advisory criteria a
couple of hours before daybreak. Also, areas of fog may develop over
the waters overnight with showers arriving west to east near
daybreak.

Tuesday... Strong small craft advisory conditions over the waters
with a few gusts to gale force possible around midday, especially in
any heavier showers thunder. Since this looks to be brief, we opted
for sca, not gale warning. Marine weather statements and possibly a
special marine warning may be needed for these locally stronger
winds. SCA conditions expected for de bay Tuesday. South winds in
the morning shift to the west in the afternoon behind the passage of
a cold front.

Outlook...

Tuesday night... A small craft advisory is in effect on our ocean waters
for westerly wind gusts around 25 knots.

Wednesday through Thursday... A west northwest wind could gust around
25 knots and the small craft advisory may be extended in time.

Thursday night through Saturday... No marine headlines are
anticipated.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Gorse iovino
near term... Fitzsimmons gorse
short term... Fitzsimmons gorse
long term... Iovino
aviation... Gorse iovino
marine... Fitzsimmons iovino


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 9 mi45 min 50°F 33°F1017.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 12 mi45 min 50°F 36°F1017.1 hPa
BDSP1 14 mi45 min 47°F 37°F1017.8 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 25 mi45 min ENE 5.1 G 8 46°F 33°F1018 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 26 mi45 min SSE 6 G 8.9 47°F 33°F1017.1 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 27 mi45 min 44°F 34°F1016.8 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi45 min E 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 33°F1018.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 36 mi45 min SE 13 G 14 37°F 32°F1017.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 38 mi45 min ENE 2.9 G 2.9 43°F 33°F1017.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi45 min S 5.1 43°F 1018 hPa37°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA7 mi21 minENE 710.00 miOvercast47°F39°F74%1017.3 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ21 mi21 minE 410.00 miFair44°F39°F85%1017.9 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA22 mi21 minENE 610.00 miFair47°F39°F74%1018.4 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE24 mi24 minSSE 310.00 miFair46°F39°F79%1017 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi40 minENE 610.00 miFair45°F37°F76%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE3S3CalmNW7CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE4E45S3S3CalmS3E4SE3E3CalmE4E7
1 day agoW4SW5SE3CalmCalmS4W3W3CalmS5CalmSW5W4S4NW3NW3W4SW6S3SW5SW4S4S3Calm
2 days agoSW8SW10SW8SW10W6SW7SW7SW5W7SW10W9SW13SW14SW13W14W12SW11W18
G22
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W8W6W7NW5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Mantua, Mantua Creek, New Jersey
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Mantua
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:34 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:34 PM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.20.7233.43.63.52.81.80.90.2-0.2-0.20.41.733.73.93.93.42.41.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:40 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:26 AM EST     1.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:09 AM EST     -1.76 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:47 PM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:16 PM EST     -1.91 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.70.51.51.510.6-0.2-1.1-1.6-1.8-1.7-1.3-0.90.11.41.81.30.7-0-1-1.7-1.9-1.8-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.