Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Acres, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:34PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:31 AM EST (07:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 1210 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Overnight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas around 3 ft. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
ANZ400 1210 Am Est Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure will strengthen later tonight and Thursday as it becomes centered over northern new england. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure system tracks near our region Thursday. Another area of low pressure will track across the deep south on Friday, then into the mid- atlantic by this weekend. High pressure will then arrive early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Acres, NJ
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location: 39.81, -74.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 130230
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
930 pm est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will strengthen later tonight and Thursday as it
becomes centered over northern new england. Meanwhile, a weak low
pressure system tracks near our region Thursday. Another area of low
pressure will track across the deep south on Friday, then into the
mid- atlantic by this weekend. High pressure will then arrive early
next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
The water vapor imagery this evening continues to show an impressive
closed low sliding across the great lakes region. This feature will
affect our weather very late tonight and especially on Thursday
especially across the northern areas. Some weak warm air advection
ongoing aloft along with an area of diffluence aloft will help to
generate higher level cloudiness this evening. However, some
increase in the 925 mb warm air advection will assist in bringing in
some moisture and therefore an expanding ceiling will lower
overnight from west to east. Some light snow may start to break out
toward daybreak in the far western areas, due to increasing warm air
advection along with the arrival of a strong 500 mb jet streak with
the northern areas starting to get into the favorable left exit
region. The light snow may have at least some impact on the morning
commute across parts of berks county, the lehigh valley into the
poconos if it starts early enough.

The changes made to the tonight period with the 930 pm update was to
adjust the pops some more mainly close to daybreak and tweak the
hourly grids based on the latest observations. Temperatures have
dropped into the mid and upper 20s for many areas (lower 20s in
parts of the poconos), therefore some adjustments were needed. The
lamp guidance was blended in to help assist, and the temperature
trends overnight will depend on the timing of the thicker lower
cloud cover.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
With the 930 pm update, increased pops to show a larger zone of
likely to categorical pops for a time along and north of the i-78
corridor. There are some signals in the model guidance that with
developing low-level frontogenesis from the pocono region eastward,
some heavier steadier snow may occur. Did increase the snow amounts
some eastward across northern new jersey and also for the higher
elevations mainly above 1500 feet in the poconos. These amounts are
still below advisory criteria (3 inches), however there is some
concern that the higher terrain of the poconos perhaps into
northwestern new jersey could pick up 3-4 inches. The timing further
east however should not affect the morning commute. We will take a
look at the new 00z guidance and make any necessary adjustments.

Otherwise, light snow will continue across the N W areas during the
morning and spread into NRN nj by afternoon. The models have
converged somewhat to the occurrence of measurable precip across
there areas, but the QPF and p-type issues are still somewhat there.

Looks like mainly all snow for much of the event across the northern
areas (all snow in the poconos). The NAM gem are higher on the qpf
with the GFS lower. Warmer temps will cause the precip to mix with
or change to rain along the SRN fringes by afternoon. Since
widespread 3 inches is needed for an advisory, we will not issue any
winter weather headlines with this fcst, although any higher snow
totals may require that to be rethought later. This would likely be
only for the SRN poconos however. High temperatures Thursday will be
in the low mid 30s N W and low mid 40s S e. Winds will be mostly e
or SE at 5 to 10 mph.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Overview... The big story in the extended forecast continues to
center over the uncertainty in the storm system poised to affect our
region this weekend. Otherwise, dry weather early Friday, and into
the middle part of next week.

Dry weather should prevail following the rain and snow chances
Thursday morning, yielding a fairly nice start to the day Friday.

Lows will dip below into the upper 20s across the southern poconos
and mid to low 30s across the i-95 corridor, thus any precipitation
that does fall could lead to some re-freezing issues Friday morning.

Lows Thursday night should stay above freezing into the mid upper
30s along the coast and into delmarva, thus less concern for these
areas. Highs moderate Friday as the storm system approaches,
reaching the low mid 50s across the coastal plain and DELMARVA and
low 40s across the higher terrain to the north.

Previous discussion noted the rather large spread in model placement
of both the surface low(s) and precipitation associated with this
weekend's storm, namely Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately, and
rather unsurprisingly, this trend has not improved as much as
would be desired. The ECMWF still has the low moving further to
the south over the outer banks, thus ending the precipitation
from north to south Saturday night into Sunday morning. It does
seem to be inching further to the north, thus some average
between it and the GFS is likely appropriate at this time. It
suggests two waves of precipitation will affect the area, the
first Saturday as a cold front tries to cross the area as the
primary surface low moves eastward across southern canada. The
second wave of precipitation moves through Sunday as the
developing low over the southeastern u.S. Moves toward the mid-
atlantic. The GFS though continues to be the wettest solution,
taking the surface low north over the chesapeake, thus keeping
us in a precipitation regime much longer through Sunday night.

It also suggests interaction with a secondary mid upper level
trough will lead to a secondary wave precipitation to form
Monday afternoon into the overnight. The canadian model also
suggests two waves of precipitation will affect the area, the
first ending Saturday morning, with the second moving through
Sunday. Given such wide spread in the model forecasts, we are
continuing to take a blend of model output. Highs Saturday and
Sunday similar to Friday with 50s to the south, low 40s to the
far north.

It is still a little early to discuss exact rainfall totals, however
1-3 inches is possible across the area. No flood concerns exist at
this time, but will need to continue to monitor the trends. The
relatively dry week we've had will definitely help.

After the coastal low exits the region Monday afternoon, taking the
precipitation with it, we look to have a fairly quiet period of
weather to start the week. Highs will be near to slightly below
average. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day with highs ranging from
the low 30s across the southern poconos to the mid 40s across
southern delaware.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with a gradually lowering ceiling. MVFR conditions may
arrive at rdg around 10z due to lowered ceilings and some light
snow. Confidence on this timing is still on the lower side. Winds
mainly light and variable to calm.

Thursday... MainlyVFR ceilings at pne, phl, ilg, miv and acy. A
period of visibility and ceiling restrictions at rdg, abe, and ttn
due to some snow and or a snow rain mix (ifr visibilities are
possible if the snow becomes heavier for a time). Light and variable
winds, becoming east or east-southeast around 5 knots.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MainlyVFR conditions expected with light easterly
winds. Patchy light drizzle and or freezing drizzle possible at
kabe, krdg, and kttn.

Friday... MainlyVFR to start the day. Conditions expected to lower
into the evening as rain overspreads the area from southwest to
northeast through the afternoon. East southeast winds under 10
knots.

Friday night and Saturday... MVFR ifr conditions expected with
periods of moderate to heavy rain. East northeast winds 5-10 knots,
with gusts to 20 knots along the coast and over delmarva. Winds will
turn more northerly later Saturday, especially at kabe, krdg, and
kttn.

Saturday night through Sunday night... MainlyVFR conditions
expected, with a return to MVFR ifr possible later into the day
Sunday. Rain looks to exit the area Monday morning. Winds near 10
knots predominately out of the north, up to 20 knots along the
coast.

Marine
Sub-sca conditions expected tonight and Thursday. Winds will be
light and variable tonight and E or SE at 5 to 10 knots Thursday.

Fair tonight and a chance for some light rain across the NRN nj
waters Thu afternoon. Seas mostly 2-3 ft on the ocean and 1-2 ft
across delaware bay.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday... Sub SCA conditions. Southeast winds
increasing through Friday, possibly approaching advisory level into
the afternoon evening.

Friday night through Sunday... SCA conditions likely, with seas
building to 5 feet by Saturday. Winds will increase to near 25 knots
late Saturday, with gale force gusts possible.

Sunday night through Monday... SCA conditions possible as the storm
system exits the region. Gale force gusts possible, with seas near 6-
10 feet, especially over the northern waters.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Davis gorse meola
near term... Gorse
short term... Gorse o'hara
long term... Davis
aviation... Davis gorse o'hara
marine... Davis o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 19 mi62 min Calm 30°F 1025 hPa28°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 29 mi38 min ENE 1 G 2.9 35°F 36°F1026.1 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 31 mi56 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 36°F1024.9 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 31 mi38 min 42°F 42°F1025.5 hPa
44091 34 mi32 min 50°F2 ft
BDSP1 37 mi38 min 35°F 38°F1025.2 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 40 mi38 min 36°F 39°F1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ10 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F26°F89%1026.4 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ17 mi92 minN 0 miFair30°F27°F88%1024.7 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ18 mi36 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F24°F77%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4--NW7--W6W8--N9
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NW12NW9W64N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3N3--NW4Calm45SW6W4CalmCalmW4W5W5W6W3W5--W6
2 days agoN6N6N5N6N8N5N8N10
G16
N12N12N10NE7N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, Delaware River, Pennsylvania
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Marcus Hook
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Thu -- 04:23 AM EST     4.67 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:10 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:35 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:35 PM EST     5.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:26 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:51 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.62.13.44.24.64.53.82.91.91.10.50.20.62.13.84.85.25.34.73.72.61.70.90.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
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Thu -- 01:42 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:42 AM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:55 AM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:34 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:32 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:14 PM EST     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:02 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:25 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     1.45 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.5-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.5-1-0.10.91.61.81.50.7-0.1-0.8-1.4-1.7-2-1.8-1-00.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.