Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marcus Hook, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:35PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:52 PM EDT (20:52 UTC) Moonrise 4:16AMMoonset 7:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 338 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms this evening, then numerous showers with isolated tstms after midnight.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. Showers likely early in the morning, then a chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 338 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front over the midwest states this afternoon will move through the region on Saturday. Meanwhile, remnant tropical moisture will stream northeastward ahead of the front. High pressure builds in from the great plains and midwest region for the second half of the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to move through the region Monday night or Tuesday. High pressure returns to the area for the middle of next week before moving off the coast late in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marcus Hook , PA
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location: 39.81, -75.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 231943
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
343 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front over the midwest states this afternoon will move
through the region on Saturday. Meanwhile, remnant tropical moisture
will stream northeastward ahead of the front. High pressure builds
in from the great plains and midwest region for the second half of
the weekend. A weak cold front is expected to move through the
region Monday night or Tuesday. High pressure returns to the area
for the middle of next week before moving off the coast late in the
week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Not many changes from the previous forecast. We still expect to
see scattered showers and thunderstorms to move into our region
from the west over the next several hours. Any clearing this
afternoon has been mostly self-destructive as cumulus fields
have developed quickly when there has been any clearing (except
over DELMARVA - where a stronger cap is in place). As a result,
we are slightly cooler than previously expected at the surface.

However, still warm enough for ml CAPE values above 500 j kg
across our region. In addition, a favorable wind profile with
increasing amounts of 0-6 km shear (primarily speed shear, as
flow above 900 mb is nearly unidirectional). Thus, there remains
a marginal to slight risk for severe storms over our region
through the evening hours.

Once we get to late this evening, we should see a brief lull as the
short wave trough weakens and the boundary layer stabilizes. After
midnight though, the cold front is expected to approach the region
from the west, and just ahead of this front, we should see one more
round of showers and thunderstorms. By tonight, the threat shifts
from strong winds to heavy downpours. However, the progressive
nature of the front should limit any flooding threat.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
The biggest difference with the latest model runs was how much
faster most models bring the front through the area, with many
models showing it clearing the coast by 12z. I'm not sure it will
move through that quickly, but did trend faster. This has not only
implications for how quickly we dry out (likely should see dry
conditions across the region by late morning), but also in the wind
forecast and with the MAX temperature forecast (chose to go closer
to the cooler operational models than the MOS guidance).

Long term Saturday night through Friday
The large-scale pattern over the CONUS will feature an upper trough
east of the rockies and an upstream ridge through early next week.

For our area, this pattern will 1) allow for a break in the active
stretch of weather we have had recently and 2) keep us far away from
the heart of the summer heat (western conus).

A cold front will slowly approach from the northwest Monday before
moving through the forecast area sometime either Monday night or
Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a series of shortwave disturbances
rounding the base of great lakes upper trough may provide a source
of deeper lift for showers both days. The bulk of the forcing for
ascent looks to remain upstream of our area on Monday, so it is
likely that any diurnally-driven convection will be sparse in
coverage and confined to the higher terrain N W of the fall line.

There is no mention of thunder in the forecast for Monday as
soundings from both the NAM and GFS do not indicate a favorable
environment for sustained deep convection owing to limited moisture
availability and a residual capping inversion in place. Despite a
post-frontal regime, the setup may be slightly more conducive for
low-topped thunderstorms on Tuesday as a cold pool aloft that is
associated with the upper trough shifts overhead and helps steepen
the mid-level lapse rates.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday night-Thursday with high
pressure influencing our weather. Showers and storms return to the
forecast next Friday as high pressure shifting offshore and the next
low pressure system approaches from the west. Kept pops low (20-30
percent) for Friday given the considerable model disagreement on d7.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal and quite comfortable for
outdoor activity with highs for most of the area in upper 70s and
lower 80s (except mid 80s on Sunday across the i-95 corridor, east)
through the middle of next week. Temperatures gradually return to
near normal late in the week as the high moves off the coast and
southerly return flow develops.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

MVFR and even brief ifr conditions will be possible with any showers
and thunderstorms that may move over the TAF sites. The primary
period for showers and thunderstorms will be first through 03z, and
then again between 08 and 12z (possibly going as late as 15z for the
coastal sites including kacy and kmiv).

Otherwise, mostlyVFR conditions are expected with skies clearing
after 15z.

Breezy southwesterly winds, with gusts up to 20 kt will be possible
through about 00z. An abrupt wind shift, winds shifting from
southwesterly to northwesterly, is expected with a cold front
moving over the area generally between 10 and 15z.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday morning...VFR. Winds primarily out of
the W or nw.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday... MostVFR but sub-vfr restrictions
still a possibility, especially on Tuesday in locally heavier
showers.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
Sca conditions, for both winds and seas are expected to continue
tonight and tomorrow. An abrupt wind shift from southwesterly to
northwesterly winds is expected by mid day Saturday. Winds may
diminish a bit behind the front, but seas are expected to remain
elevated through much of the day.

Outlook...

Saturday night... Did not extend the current SCA into Saturday night
with seas likely to drop below 5 ft in our coastal atlantic waters.

W-sw winds around 10 kt early in the evening shift to NW behind a
cold front.

Sunday through Wednesday... Winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA criteria. An isolated TSTM possible on Tuesday.

Rip currents...

a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
continues today for the nj shore. For tomorrow, winds will be
shifting off shore, but a 5 to 6 ft swell may lead to a moderate
risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents especially
along the central and southern nj shore. For the northern nj
shore and the delaware beaches, the risk is expected to be low
at this time. However, even with a low risk... The bigger diurnal
difference in the tide cycle due to the new moon today could
mean some rapidly changing conditions.

Tides coastal flooding
Very high astronomical tides will continue through the next few days
in association with the new moon today. However, flow should be
shifting more offshore, so though spotty minor tidal flooding
is possible with this afternoon evening's high tide, the threat
for widespread minor tidal flooding has diminished.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Saturday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Klein
aviation... Johnson
marine... Johnson klein
tides coastal flooding... Johnson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 0 mi52 min 83°F 1005 hPa (-2.0)
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 17 mi52 min 90°F 76°F1005 hPa (-1.9)
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 18 mi52 min SSW 8 G 14 87°F 78°F1005.8 hPa (-2.1)
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 19 mi52 min 88°F 79°F1005.4 hPa (-2.1)
BDSP1 21 mi52 min 85°F 1005.5 hPa (-2.0)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 29 mi52 min SSE 9.9 G 15 85°F 83°F1006.1 hPa (-2.1)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 34 mi76 min 84°F 78°F1005.4 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 35 mi52 min SW 23 G 28 85°F 78°F1006.2 hPa (-1.7)
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 40 mi42 min SSW 18 G 23 85°F 1005.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 42 mi52 min W 11 G 20 84°F 77°F1005.7 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA10 mi58 minSW 17 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F72°F59%1005.8 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE13 mi61 minSSW 12 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F75°F70%1005.9 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA24 mi77 minSW 11 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW10SW11SW10SW9SW9S5S5S6SW6SW4S7SW6S8SW10SW10SW14
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E5W6W8S6S5S4S6SW5S5SW4W5CalmW43NE3E5E33S4SW11W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania
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Marcus Hook
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:13 PM EDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.26.55.44.33.32.31.10.20.72.44.25.56.25.94.93.82.81.910.30.72.44.66.3

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:27 AM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:22 PM EDT     -2.31 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Fri -- 11:25 PM EDT     2.40 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.3-0.2-1.5-2.1-2.3-2.3-2.2-1.8-0.41.322.11.70.6-1-1.9-2.3-2.2-1.9-1.5-0.51.22.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.