Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Paulsboro, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:43PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 8:12 AM EST (13:12 UTC) Moonrise 3:34PMMoonset 3:44AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 530 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through late tonight...
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft this afternoon. Scattered showers early. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain and freezing rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Rain likely.
ANZ400 530 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A weak surface low will move offshore the new england coast this afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the mid-atlantic on Wednesday, followed by a very cold surface high building into the northeast for thanksgiving and Friday. A couple of surface lows may affect the region this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Paulsboro , NJ
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location: 39.82, -75.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201126
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
626 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak surface low will move offshore the new england coast this
afternoon. A strong cold front will move through the mid-atlantic on
Wednesday, followed by a very cold surface high building into the
northeast for thanksgiving and Friday. A couple of surface lows may
affect the region this weekend into early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Weak low pressure moving across the region, and will end up
just south of nyc in the next couple of hours. The low deepens
as it moves into the gulf of maine, and this allows a weak cold
front to pass through the region early this afternoon.

Some light rain showers have developed across parts of the
region, but coverage is scattered, and QPF amounts are light. In
addition, patchy fog across the region continues through this
morning.

Into this afternoon, clouds gradually lift and break up, and
skies should clear out late.

West northwest winds increase to around 15 mph with gusts to 20
mph this afternoon. Highs today will generally be in the 40s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
High pressure south and west of the region will mainly be in
control of the area tonight. Meanwhile, a weak clipper system
ahead of a strong cold front will approach late tonight.

Mainly clear skies and light west winds on tap for the region
tonight. Lows will generally range from the low to mid 20s in far
northern zones to the 20s to around 30 for the rest of the
region.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Quite a few challenges with the long-term forecast, with the main
two stories being a very cold thanksgiving (and Friday) followed by
a couple of systems affecting the region this weekend into early
next week.

The large-scale pattern features a strong trough in eastern north
america on Wednesday with digging vorticity maxima amplifying the
trough as it progresses into the western atlantic by Friday night.

However, it will be replaced by amplified ridging early this weekend
with help from a polar high retrogressing into eastern north america
during this period. This will serve to reinforce longwave troughing
in the central eastern u.S. Canada, with two strong midlevel
perturbations digging into the central southeastern u.S. This
weekend into early next week. Models are struggling mightily with
the evolution of these midlevel perturbations and associated surface
lows, with very poor agreement with both by Saturday. In general,
the forecast for the whole period is based on a consensus model
blend but with less and less weighting of the 12z 00z ECMWF Saturday
and beyond as they become outliers (though worryingly consistent
ones). The ECMWF seems to be weakest with the amplified ridging and
blocking polar flow, which does not seem reasonable given the
evolving pattern early this week and general teleconnections with
the polar-latitude pattern.

On Wednesday, an arctic cold front will blast through the northeast,
progressing through our CWA by evening. Operational models depict
some light QPF along upstream of the front as deep mixing allows for
some (snow) showers to develop. The setup looks at least somewhat
favorable for a snow squall or two Wednesday (late morning into
early evening), given (1) development of shallow buoyancy in the
increasingly deep mixing layer upstream of the front, (2) very
strong 850-750 mb flow with a fetch upstream from the great lakes,
and (3) ready saturation of surface-based parcels. Though this
potential seems much higher to our north and west (as usual), this
will need to be monitored closely as the cold front progresses
through the area.

The main story with the front will be the bone-chilling air it
brings in. It will also be breezy upstream of the front, and this
spells low wind chills. Current forecast has these readings near or
below zero Wednesday night and Thursday in the poconos and adjacent
areas, with single digits and teens virtually everywhere else. Winds
will diminish Thursday night, but temperatures will plunge as a
strong surface ridge approaches, allowing for ideal radiational
cooling. Record lows are a possibility. Lowered temperatures quite a
bit Thursday and Thursday night, as statistical guidance tends to be
too warm in these environments (especially those that are so
anomalous). Somewhat worried I am still on the warm side, especially
Thursday night in more rural areas, so these numbers may be
decreased more in subsequent forecasts.

Friday should be quite cold as well, but it should be warmer as
light return flow is expected to set up as the surface high advances
offshore. As midlevel ridging moves into the region, Friday night
should be much warmer and may feature little if any cooling beyond
the early evening as warm moist advection increase(s).

Attention turns to the developing surface low in the southeast
Friday night. The GFS cmc shift this low (of varying intensity) off
the carolina coast, while the ECMWF lifts the low along the mid-
atlantic coast by 12z Saturday. Large differences in precipitation
timing and magnitude in our area occur as a result, with the ecmwf
showing considerably more precipitation on Saturday. The GFS cmc
produce some cold-conveyor-belt precipitation as the low progresses
well offshore across the i-95 corridor and surrounds but suggest the
heavier precipitation stays well south closer to the low's track.

All of the models suggest the precipitation may hold off until later
in the day Saturday, which is good news given the residual cold air
that will remain Friday night. This also makes sense given residual
effects on the strong surface high -- models tend to be too
aggressive with precipitation encroaching a retreating ridge. Should
precipitation onset be sooner, the pattern reflects a warm nose atop
near-surface near- sub-freezing air (i.E., a wintry mix with some
chance for sleet freezing rain). Cannot rule this scenario out
entirely, so have included chances of this Saturday morning.

However, current model simulations suggest the timing will be too
late, with the precipitation being a mostly above-freezing liquid
event.

There will be a brief lull in precipitation at some point this
weekend... Most likely Sunday... Before the second strong vort max
makes it move toward the area. The ECMWF looks way too fast given
the blocky polar pattern, but if correct, would suggest a quick-
hitting, light QPF event for most of the area on Monday. The GFS cmc
would suggest a stronger second QPF punch on Monday Monday night
(slower owing to the appreciable blocking simulated by these
models). Temperatures look warm on Monday, so most of the
precipitation would be liquid. However, should precipitation linger
Monday night into Tuesday on the cold side of the system, may see a
little bit of a wintry mix in the northwest cwa. Plenty of time to
figure out these details, and too much model disagreement to begin
dissecting the thermodynamic details profiles this far in advance.

Given the above, have broad (mainly chance) pops Saturday through
the end of the period with temperatures near seasonal averages for
highs and above averages for lows. Again, the entire period will not
be wet, but the timing discrepancies among the guidance preclude
pinpointing these time windows at this point.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... MVFR ifr conditions this morning in
fog stratus scattered light rain showers. Conditions improve to
vfr later this morning. Lgt vrb winds this morning become w-nw
10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Tonight...VFR. West winds 5-7 kt in the evening become 5 kt or less
late.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday: primarilyVFR with a strong cold front
moving through on Wednesday, switching winds from southwest to
northwest. Speeds generally 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25+ kts
after frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday.

Winds should be light and variable Thursday night and Friday.

Moderate confidence.

Friday night and Saturday: periods of sub-vfr possible with a chance
of rain on Saturday. Winds easterly or southeasterly below 10 kts
Friday night becoming 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts near the coast
Saturday. Low confidence.

Marine
Low pressure moves across the waters this morning, and then deepens
as it moves towards the gulf of maine. Tranquil conditions this
morning, and then NW winds increase to 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts
this afternoon and evening. Small craft advisory remains in effect
for lower de bay and the ocean, but went ahead and added upper de
bay to the SCA for the same time. Conditions subside to sub-sca
levels late tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night: strong cold front will pass through
the waters, with winds switching to northwest. A period of gales is
possible, especially off the new jersey coast, but confidence is
low. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday: strong northwest winds continue, and gales cannot be ruled
out. At least advisory-level winds expected.

Thursday night: lingering advisory-level winds expected but should
diminish late.

Friday and Friday night: sub-advisory winds seas expected.

Saturday: east southeast winds develop and increase, possibly to
advisory levels. Rain possible.

Climate
Here is a list of current record low temperatures:
site november 22 november 23
allentown 15 2014 16 2000, 1964
atlantic city 16 2014, 1964 10 1989
georgetown 16 1987, 1969 16 1984, 1964
mount pocono 5 1969 6 2000, 1964
philadelphia 14 1980 10 1880
reading 16 1969 16 1972
trenton 15 1880 16 1880
wilmington 17 1964 17 1964

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Wednesday for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... Cms
near term... Mps
short term... Mps
long term... Cms
aviation... Cms mps
marine... Cms mps
climate... Mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 9 mi43 min 45°F 41°F1011.1 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 10 mi43 min 45°F 44°F1012.1 hPa
BDSP1 13 mi43 min 45°F 43°F1011.9 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 26 mi97 min Calm G 1.9 43°F 42°F1011.1 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 26 mi43 min W 2.9 G 5.1 46°F 42°F1012.4 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 33 mi43 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 43°F1012.4 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 37 mi43 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 46°F1012.9 hPa
SJSN4 - 8537121 - Ship John Shoal, NJ 37 mi43 min WNW 11 G 12 48°F 50°F1012.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 45 mi43 min W 4.1 42°F 1011 hPa42°F

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA5 mi19 minNW 65.00 miFog/Mist45°F41°F86%1012.5 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA21 mi19 minNW 45.00 miOvercast with Haze45°F39°F83%1012.5 hPa
Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE22 mi22 minW 32.00 miFog/Mist46°F44°F93%1012.8 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ22 mi19 minN 32.00 miFog/Mist43°F42°F97%1011.4 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA22 mi38 minN 04.00 miOvercast41°F39°F93%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5SW3CalmS5SE5CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE4NE4E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W6NW6
1 day agoE4E4E63S5SW5S5S5S4S3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW11W8W13
G17
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G18
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G20
NW11NW10NW11W8W8W8W8W7W6W7W7W7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Paulsboro, Mantua Creek, New Jersey
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Paulsboro
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Tue -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:30 AM EST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:10 AM EST     5.69 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:01 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:28 PM EST     5.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.83.82.81.810.40.41.63.24.35.25.75.44.53.52.51.60.80.30.92.53.84.85.4

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Tue -- 03:03 AM EST     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:43 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EST     1.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:48 PM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:57 PM EST     1.38 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.2-1.5-1.7-1.6-1.5-0.90.41.31.31.310.1-0.9-1.4-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.4-0.311.41.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.