Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Obetz, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:17PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:15 AM EST (08:15 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Obetz, OH
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location: 39.85, -82.96     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, OH
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Fxus61 kiln 150643
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington oh
143 am est Thu nov 15 2018

High pressure over the great lakes will continue moving to the
east, as low pressure moves into the area from the mississippi
valley. This will bring a mix of wintry precipitation tonight
and tomorrow. Dry weather will return on Friday as high pressure
becomes centered to the south.

Near term until 6 am this morning
In light of increased ice amounts evident in obs and with radar
showing precip redeveloping and moving slowly, have issued ice
storm warning for the cincinnati and dayton areas and for all
our indiana counties. Continuing advisory for rest of area for
now but may expand warning depending on precip trends.

Temperatures have begun to rise toward freezing since boundary
layer is approaching saturation and wet bulb effect is being
used up.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Very early on Thursday morning, the compact mid-level low will
be moving northeast into the lower ohio valley, with weak
surface low pressure developing just ahead of it in central
tennessee and kentucky. All ingredients are coming together for
the area ahead of these features to be the location for the
heaviest precipitation to develop -- deep-layer moisture,
positive vorticity advection, and upper divergence. Due to the
way the low center is tilted westward with height, there will be
a significant intrusion of warmer air aloft advecting into the
iln CWA on southerly flow, while cool conditions remain in place
on easterly flow at the surface. This presents the main hazard
highlighted by the winter weather advisory -- a period of
freezing rain is expected cwa-wide, with the potential for
around a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Working toward
this threat are several factors. One is an impressively deep
warm layer aloft, which will melt hydrometeors efficiently
during the overnight hours and into Thursday morning. Another
factor is that the strength of the forcing will mean that
precipitation will be heavy enough to accumulate -- this will
not just be a trace event. The cold starting point at the
surface (exacerbated by the under-performing temperatures this
Wednesday afternoon) also leads credence to the idea that
surface conditions will be cold enough for a period of several
hours of ice accumulations. It should be noted that despite
temperature performance today (Wednesday), models have been
trending warmer with this upcoming system -- which is why snow
was largely removed from the forecast equation, favoring more
of a fzra-to-ra scenario from south to north. Models also
indicate a shift from easterly to southeasterly flow during the
morning, warming conditions above freezing pretty quickly --
maybe too quickly, given the dry antecedent conditions and lack
of any strong warm advection flow. Nonetheless, temperatures
are expected to become warm enough to change fzra to ra during
the 12z to 16z time frame from south to north across the
forecast area. This is one part of the forecast that is more
moderate-confidence than high-confidence, and if temperatures
warm slower, then ice accumulations could be more than currently
anticipated. Finally, as precipitation onset occurs and the warm
layer is just starting to get into the area, some sleet may also
mix in tonight. Not expecting any accumulations out of this. As
for snow, any accumulations of up to an inch will be limited to
the northwest corner of the cwa. To note -- this forecast
used a nam GFS rap consensus as guidance, straying from the
colder canadian model solution.

Though precipitation may become lighter during the day, some
renewed development is expected just ahead of the mid-level low
center -- likely a mix of rain and snow, and changing to snow
once as temperatures fall during the evening. Some model
soundings suggested that moisture may become too shallow to
support cloud ice (i.E. Freezing drizzle rather than snow) but
this is enough of a question mark that it does not seem wise to
further complicate the forecast with this possibility.

A few models suggested that MAX temps on Thursday afternoon
could get into the mid 40s in the southeastern CWA -- this does
not seem particularly reasonable with precipitation and clouds
in a cool surface pattern. MAX temps will be forecast in the mid
30s to around 40, with min temps cooling into the upper 20s to
lower 30s by early Friday morning.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The extended period begins with the region on the backside of
the exiting system which is near nyc at 12z Friday. A fast
moving h5 low will travel through the great lakes on Friday.

This could bring some isolated pcpn into the northern counties
on Friday. For now, left the forecast dry. Highs on will
continue to be below normal, ranging from the upper 30s to mid
40s. The high will keep Saturday dry with highs in the lower to
mid 40s.

Late Saturday night into Sunday night, a cold front will push
into the region, bringing a chance of snow and rain showers.

There is a little spread in the forecast timing and qpf, but it
looks like the best chance of any pcpn may be Sunday night.

Northwest flow develops aloft, with surface high building over
the eastern u.S. The GFS does try to drop a S W into the region
Tuesday night, bringing some light pcpn, but this is not
supported by the other models at this time. Kept next week dry
for now. After a cool start with highs Monday only reaching the
mid 30s to lower 40s, there will be a gradual warm up, with
highs by Wednesday reaching the 40s.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
Winter storm is affecting TAF sites with freezing rain and
sleet. Visibilities have already lowered to MVFR at cvg and luk
and will at rest of sites as precip spreads northward. Ceilings
that are currentlyVFR are forecast to fall to MVFR as the
lower atmosphere becomes saturated. Ceilings down to ifr will
be possible early this morning through this afternoon. East
winds will be around 12 knots early until subsiding later this
morning. We should see a change to rain around 12z as indicated
by models but will monitor in case this process is delayed by
evaporational cooling. Rain is expected to change back to snow
as the low lifts northeast and colder air filters in.

Outlook... MVFR ceilings may continue into Friday and are
possible again on Sunday.

Iln watches warnings advisories
Oh... Ice storm warning until noon est today for ohz060>062-070>072-

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for ohz026-034-

Ky... Ice storm warning until noon est today for kyz089>096.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for kyz097>100.

In... Ice storm warning until noon est today for inz050-058-059-066-

Synopsis... Hatzos
near term... Coniglio
short term... Hatzos
long term... Sites
aviation... Coniglio

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, OH2 mi41 minENE 97.00 miUnknown Precip30°F24°F80%1025.1 hPa
Columbus, Bolton Field Airport, OH10 mi21 minENE 610.00 miLight Rain30°F26°F85%1024.7 hPa
John Glenn Columbus International Airport, OH12 mi25 minE 77.00 miLight Freezing Rain31°F24°F76%1025.7 hPa
Lancaster, Fairfield County Airport, OH17 mi23 minENE 77.00 miUnknown Precip31°F26°F82%1025.5 hPa
Columbus, Ohio State University Airport, OH18 mi23 minENE 76.00 miLight Freezing Rain31°F25°F79%1025.9 hPa

Wind History from LCK (wind in knots)
1 day agoN5NW5NW7NW5NW5NW6NW8NW10NW11NW12
2 days agoCalmNE3E3CalmNE4NE3CalmCalmNE3--NE4CalmE5S3CalmNE4NE5N3NE3NE3CalmNW5N5N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, OH (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.