Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM   Moonset 2:21 PM

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FXUS61 KILN 032308 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 708 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend along with muggy conditions. Additional thunderstorms are possible into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Light shower activity may continue late this afternoon/early this evening in the unsettled and weakly unstable environment across the Ohio Valley. While a few thunderstorms cannot completely be ruled out prior to sunset, persistent cloud cover and light rain earlier today has kept instability to a minimum.

For the overnight, a weak cold front will attempt to drop in the from the north before stalling over northern Ohio. At most, only expecting a few degree temperature drop as some northeasterly flow tries to develop. However, winds could end up mainly remaining light and variable overnight since weak pressure gradient stays over the region. Some shower chances persist tonight and forecast lows are generally in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A weak stalled front is expected to lift north of the area on Saturday. Warm, humid conditions will be in place as southerly flow redevelops leading to highs near 80 during the afternoon.
Instability should accompany the muggy conditions Saturday afternoon/evening bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
If a weak shortwave does end up moving through on Saturday, fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage could develop. Severe chances remain low since shear is weak and DCAPE remains moderate to low in the moist, saturated sounding. Locally heavy downpours are likely since PWATs will be high. Additionally, brief gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms in the this summer-like setup.

Shower/storm chances continue on Saturday night due to the possible development of an upper level shortwave and the approach of a cold front to the northwest. Brief, locally heavy rain remains the biggest threat since instability and shear are weak. Southwesterly winds persist along with warm and muggy conditions.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A wet period is indicated as persistent moisture advection couples with waves of low pressure. Relatively slow moving systems will allow showers to linger, with brief dry interludes separating batches of showers. Precipitable water remaining above an inch will be feeding the showers.

For Sunday, the first wave of low pressure will be tracking to the Great Lakes, resulting in widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. Much the same can be expected for Monday, though most showers may shift south, closer to a disturbance over the Southern Appalachians. A relative lull in precipitation is forecast for Tuesday as high pressure builds in between disturbances.

Two more potent waves of low pressure could impact the region on Wednesday and Thursday. There should be a better chance for severe thunderstorms as stronger winds enhance storm strength and structure. Showers and thunderstorms may linger on Friday as another disturbance crosses the Appalachians.

Temperatures are likely to stay above normal through the long term, with some fluctuation with respect to advection around weather systems. Highs will generally be in the mid 70s to low 80s Sunday through Thursday, before readings slip to the upper 60s to mid 70s on Friday under a modest decrease in geopotential heights.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Generally VFR conditions are expected to start the TAF period, but some brief MVFR ceilings or visibilities will be possible as some rain showers continue to impact the area. There will be a gradual diminishing trend in shower coverage over the next few hours, with light winds settling into an ENE direction. By morning, ceilings are expected to lower to the MVFR range, with most TAF sites expected to go below 2kft. Some patchy MVFR visibilities are also possible in the early morning hours, but the thick cloud cover makes this somewhat uncertain.

Some additional showers will be possible in the morning, though the chances are on the lower side, and this is not included in the TAFs. However, showers will become more likely again tomorrow afternoon, so all TAF sites have VCSH and then -SHRA.
Thunderstorms are not out of the question either. Prevailing ceilings will lift to VFR by this time, with southeasterly flow of 10 knots or less.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times each day from Sunday through Wednesday. MVFR conditions are possible Sunday morning and Monday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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