Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Gate, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:40PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:48 AM EDT (04:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:14AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 921 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Seas around 3 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight, then becoming N late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Mainly in se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
ANZ400 921 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will continue to move well south of the region tonight as high pressure begins to build in from the north and west. The high will continue to build over the region through early next week as it slowly shifts eastward, before it finally shifts offshore by mid week. Around the same time, a low pressure system will pass off the east coast, to our south.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Gate , NJ
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location: 39.87, -74.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240139
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
939 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to move well south of the region
tonight as high pressure begins to build in from the north and
west. The high will continue to build over the region through
early next week as it slowly shifts eastward, before it finally
shifts offshore by mid week. Around the same time, a low
pressure system will pass off the east coast, to the south.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Kdox radar continues to show some light sprinkles moving off the
delmarva. Should last another hour or so.

In the more rural parts of nj and up in the poconos, the
combination of clear skies and light winds along with relatively
low dewpoints has resulted in pretty decent radiational cooling
this evening. Temps in these areas have dropped into the low to
mid 60s, and into the mid 50s in the poconos. Temps will
continue to fall off tonight, and as a result, lowered overnight
lows a bit. Expecting overnight min temps to range from the mid
60s in the philly metro area, and in the upper 50s to low 60s
across much of SE pa and nj. Lows will be in the low 60s in the
delmarva and in the low 50s in the poconos.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Thursday... Probably a sunny start then considerable CU sc
developing during mid afternoon. Scattered sprinkles are still
possible late in the day in NE and E central pa. Light northwest
to northeast wind.

Max temp forecast is normal to 5 below normal.

Forecast is a 50 50 blend of the 12z 23 GFS nam MOS checked
against the 12z 23 ECMWF temps and multi operational model
qpf's.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Overall not much in the way of sensible weather for the long
term forecast as strengthening confluence aloft allows surface
high pressure to strengthen and build into the area. Forecast
soundings suggest perhaps some cumulus development each day,
then increasing onshore flow by Sunday as the high passes to the
north and low pressure begins to deepen off the southeast coast.

Despite the overall drier air mass, will have to watch for
coastal stratus development into early next week with increasing
moisture beneath the inversion in onshore flow.

Much more uncertainty exists by mid week as low pressure passes
well to the south. One scenario if the low passes farther north
is some light overrunning precipitation. A more concerning
potential scenario to consider is how moisture from the remnants
of t.C. Harvey interact with an upper trough expected to move
into the area by mid week. Southwest-west flow may advect
tropical moisture northeastward, and despite model forecast
showing little in the way of QPF at the moment, there is
certainly potential for a wet mid-late week. Have edged a little
higher than deterministic guidance at this time. Both systems
will need to be closely monitored in the week ahead.

Temperatures will be close to or a few degrees below normal
through mid week.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Any bkn-ovc mid-deck at kmiv kacy will scatter
out and will become skc later this evening. Skc otherwise.

Lgt vrb to nearly calm winds.

Thursday...VFR clear to start, then sct-bkn clouds AOA 5000 ft
during the afternoon. Light mostly northwest wind may sea breeze
along the coast. Small chance of a sprinkle late in the day
vicinity of krdg kabe.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR. Generally light winds from
the N or nw, possibly becoming n-ne on Saturday and Sunday.

Small chance of a light shower vicinity kabe kttn krdg Thursday
afternoon and Friday afternoon.

Marine
No headlines through Thursday. NW winds 10-15 kt will become n
5-10 kt tonight through Thursday morning. Sea breezes are
seemingly more likely to develop Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Saturday... Winds and seas below sca
criteria as high pressure builds across the area.

Sunday through Monday... As high pressure moves north of the
area then gradually eastward, onshore flow will begin to
strengthen. The increasing pressure gradient and prolonged
period of onshore flow will resulting in seas building to 5 ft
or higher along the S nj and de coasts.

Rip currents...

there is low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
at nj and de ocean beaches on Thursday.

Outlook for Friday through Saturday is currently indicating low
risk. That doesn't mean no risk, but requires sensible decision
making for swimmers with the ultimate safety, swimming within
the watchful gaze of the life guards. Stay away from
jetties piers.

Early next week... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents may increase depending on the the actual development-
building of 8 second easterly swells

Climate
Kabe monthly rainfall is now 8.34 inches... Still ranked #12 for
the month of august. The record is 13.47 inches in 2011.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 99
near term... Drag mps
short term... Drag
long term... 99
aviation... Drag mps
marine... Drag mps
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi49 min 77°F3 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi79 min W 1.9 66°F 1012 hPa61°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi49 min Calm G 1.9 70°F 79°F1012.6 hPa (+0.3)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 38 mi49 min 75°F 75°F1012.2 hPa (+0.6)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi73 min 70°F 78°F1012 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi49 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 78°F1011.2 hPa (+0.5)
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi59 min N 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 75°F2 ft1011.1 hPa (+0.6)59°F
BDSP1 49 mi49 min 74°F 1012.6 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ8 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair61°F57°F87%1012.7 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi1.8 hrsN 010.00 miFair61°F60°F97%1011.4 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ21 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair65°F57°F78%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW12S8SW8SW4W4W4Calm--NW8NW8N11NW85NW9NW9W10NW9NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW5SW7SW6SW7SW6SW5SW8SW7SW7W9SW10SW7SW9S15
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2 days agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW5S6S6SW5S7S9S11S8S6S6S4S5S4S3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Cedar Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:23 AM EDT     0.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:14 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:57 PM EDT     0.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.50.40.30.20.10-0-00.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.10.1000.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:23 AM EDT     -3.17 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:16 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EDT     2.63 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:59 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:02 PM EDT     2.71 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0.4-1.5-2.4-3.1-3-2-0.41.12.32.62.11.1-0-1-1.9-2.6-2.7-2-0.60.92.22.72.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.