Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Gate, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:10PM Monday May 20, 2019 10:55 AM EDT (14:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201905210115;;168111 Fzus51 Kphi 201318 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 918 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-210115- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 918 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Rest of today..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 918 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front, associated with low pressure moving through the great lakes into canada, will cross our region later this afternoon and evening. High pressure is then expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front arrives in our area late Thursday night and Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday which may stall to our south on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Gate borough, NJ
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location: 39.87, -74.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201335
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
935 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A cold front, associated with low pressure moving through the
great lakes into canada, will cross our region later this
afternoon and evening. High pressure is then expected for
Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front arrives in our area late
Thursday night and Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday
which may stall to our south on Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A rather warm and also humid morning in progress, and this will
continue this afternoon although some guidance shows the dew points
lowering some as deeper mixing develops. Overall flavor of the going
forecast is in good shape, and just some tweaks were made to the
hourly grids to account for the current conditions and then trends.

A few weak showers may occur in parts of eastern pennsylvania to
northern new jersey the next few hours with a weak convergence area
moving through. The main convection looks to occur this afternoon,
especially from 2 pm onward from west to east.

Some showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a cold
front moves southeastward across the region. The severe threat
appears to be lower than yesterday, though non-zero (a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms is in place). MLCAPE looks to be up to 2000
j kg this afternoon with the 0-3 km shear forecast to be less than
30 knots. The 12z sterling, va RAOB shows a low-level cap that will
need to be eroded (which will with heating), and some dry layers
aloft. The dry layers would contribute to better dcape, and with
steepening low-level lapse rates a locally damaging wind gust is the
main threat. There is not a lot of forcing, thus convection will be
driven by the airmass and the incoming surface front. With the
timing of the front, better storm coverage potentially along and
east of the i-95 corridor.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
A quiet night after the cold front passes through the area.

Skies will quickly clear and drier air will work its way
southward. This will allow us to cool off more than last night,
thus, low temperatures tonight should drop into the mid to upper
50s, with 40s in the higher terrain to the north.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Summary... Cooler with much lower humidity Tuesday into Wednesday,
then some warming. Some convective chances at times, however no
significant storm systems are anticipated.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough in eastern canada into the
great lakes swings across the northeast Monday night, and even
strengthens some across the northeast Tuesday before shifting east.

Another strong upper-level trough lifts across the plains Tuesday
and Wednesday resulting in a building ridge nearing the east. The
ridge builds more Thursday into Friday, although short wave energy
topping it will keep more of a northwesterly flow aloft regime
across the northeast. At the surface, a cold front shifts offshore
Monday evening with lowering dew points and cooler air. The pattern
looks to generally repeat from Thursday onward as a warm front
arrives followed by a cold front during Saturday.

For Tuesday and Wednesday... As a robust trough exits the
northeast late Tuesday, ridging builds from the great lakes
region southward ahead of a strong upper-level trough moving
into the central plains. This will allow surface high pressure
to build into our area from the northwest, with a cooler and
much drier airmass in place. There will be a breeze on Tuesday
from the northwest given mixing within some cold air advection.

As the ridge builds eastward more Wednesday, the surface high
will shift eastward as well and tend to move offshore Wednesday
night. A warm front advancing northeastward from the ohio valley
will start to approach our area late Wednesday night. As a
result, the dew points should start to creep up some Wednesday
night however it is not expected to be all that humid.

For Thursday and Friday... A strong ridge centered across the
southeastern u.S. Will flex north and eastward some during this time
frame. The axis of this ridge may end up remaining to our west,
keeping our region more into a northwesterly flow regime aloft. As a
result, a warm front sitting to our southwest may take its time
advancing north of our entire area until late Friday. In addition, a
strong short wave diving southeastward may produce weak surface low
pressure near our area later Thursday night and Friday morning
before moving offshore. It is possible this feature could be
convectively enhanced, and the convective risk may be higher during
this time frame. Given uncertainty on the evolution of this, kept
pops on the lower side. Otherwise, dew points will gradually be on
the rise with it turning more humid especially during Friday.

For Saturday and Sunday... As an upper-level trough rounds the
northern side of the large ridge, surface low pressure tracks across
canada however its cold front is forecast to move across our area
later Saturday. The tail end of this front may be weaker as it
encounters the northern side of the ridge, however building warmth
and humidity along with a belt of stronger flow may result in some
stronger convection with the front. The front may then stall to our
south Sunday given the strong ridge across the southern states.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR. Southwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25
knots, becoming west-southwest by later this afternoon. Some showers
and thunderstorms around mainly after 18z, with local and brief
restrictions to MVFR or even ifr.

Tonight...VFR. Winds turning northwesterly 10-15 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR. Northwest winds 10-15 knots with gusts
to 20 knots, diminishing some Tuesday night, then becoming light and
variable during Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday... MostlyVFR, however some showers and
thunderstorms are possible especially later Thursday into Friday.

Light and variable winds becoming west-southwest 5-10 knots
Thursday, then becoming northwest later Thursday night into
Friday.

Marine
Today and tonight... Generally sub-sca conditions. Winds may
approach 25 knots out of the west tonight, but should generally
remain below SCA criteria. Seas from 2 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Northwest winds gusting to around 20 knots, however
the conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory
criteria.

Wednesday through Friday... The conditions are anticipated to be
below small craft advisory criteria.

Rip currents...

a southerly flow will continue to result in a moderate risk for
the development of dangerous rip currents along the new jersey
and delaware coasts into tonight. An offshore flow may produce
a lower risk on Tuesday.

Equipment
The kdix radar has returned to service, however testing may
result in the radar being offline at times. The radar has been
calibrated and the data is valid, however operational use will
be limited until the all clear is given by the technicians
later today or Tuesday. Surrounding radars include kdox, kokx,
klwx, kccx, kbgm and tphl.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Miketta
near term... Davis gorse
short term... Davis
long term... Gorse miketta
aviation... Davis gorse miketta
marine... Davis gorse miketta
equipment... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44091 22 mi56 min 58°F4 ft
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi86 min SW 8.9 74°F 1012 hPa64°F
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 36 mi56 min W 9.9 G 12 77°F 64°F1011.2 hPa (+0.0)
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 38 mi56 min 65°F 55°F1012.9 hPa (+0.0)
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 40 mi80 min WSW 8.9 G 11 76°F 62°F1010.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi36 min S 12 G 14 60°F 56°F1010.3 hPa58°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 42 mi56 min W 11 G 13 69°F 61°F1011.7 hPa (+0.0)
BDSP1 49 mi56 min 77°F 64°F1011 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Newbold, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Miller Air Park, NJ8 mi60 minWSW 1510.00 miFair84°F66°F57%1011.9 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ14 mi1.9 hrsW 12 G 1910.00 miFair81°F66°F62%1010.7 hPa
Belmar-Farmingdale, NJ21 mi60 minW 1110.00 miFair81°F66°F61%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from MJX (wind in knots)
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1 day ago34S6SE9SE8SE9S12S10S8S6S4S4CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS7S12
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W5W6N9CalmCalmW4W5N4N4N5N3NW4CalmN6N7N7N9

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Creek, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey
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Cedar Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:41 AM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:35 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.40.30.20.10-0-000.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.10.1000.10.20.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barnegat Inlet, Barnegat Bay, New Jersey Current
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Barnegat Inlet
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:41 AM EDT     -3.17 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:05 AM EDT     2.37 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:53 PM EDT     -2.50 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:28 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     2.80 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-1.3-2.2-3-3.1-2.4-10.51.82.42.11.30.2-0.7-1.5-2.2-2.5-1.9-0.70.82.12.82.61.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.