Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Westville borough, NJ

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:25PM Saturday July 21, 2018 9:25 PM EDT (01:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:14PMMoonset 12:22AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ430 Delaware Bay Waters North Of East Point Nj To Slaughter Beach De- 619 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
.gale warning in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming S after midnight, then diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 40 kt, decreasing to 30 kt late. Waves 3 to 4 ft. Periods of rain this evening. A slight chance of tstms. Rain likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the morning, then 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft early in the morning, then 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft early in the afternoon. A chance of showers late in the morning. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon..SE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of tstms. Showers.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 619 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening, then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest will drift south into the southeast u.s. Through the middle of next week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the week then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Westville borough, NJ
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location: 39.87, -75.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220031
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
831 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening,
then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into
Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest
will drift south into the southeast u.S. Through the middle of next
week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the
week, then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
For the 630 pm update, adjusted the temperatures down several
degrees for much of the area as dew points are still low enough
where more cooling has taken place with the rain falling. Higher dew
points though (upper 60s to lower 70s) is advecting into our
southeastern areas. Our radar VWP shows 40-45 knots of easterly flow
now at 2000 feet, and this is forecast to strengthen through the
evening as surface low pressure works north-northwestward. Rain
continues to spread northward, with some weakening across southern
delaware. Removed the slight chance of thunder for next few hours as
any instability is still offshore, and our best chance for a few
thunderstorms across eastern and southern areas is with the band of
rain just north and east of the center later this evening. No other
changes were made at this time.

The coastal low to our south will strengthen some and move northward
through tonight. All of the guidance takes the track of the low
basically up the chesapeake bay and across eastern central
pennsylvania during tonight. Several rounds of moderate to
occasional heavy rain will move across the area through this evening
as a couple of short waves round the large, broad upper low to our
west and assists to enhanced the lift and moisture transport across
the area. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall amounts continues
to be expected across the areas that are under a flash flood watch,
so we keep the watch in place. As the low tracks northward and into
eastern central pennsylvania, a lot of the guidance is showing the
heaviest precipitation stretching out and loosing its intensity as
it tracks across our central and northern areas. There will still be
rain across the northern areas, but we are not expecting the
potential for flash flooding, but more poor drainage and urban type
flooding.

Another concern with the storm will be strong wind gusts. As the low
continues to track closer to the area and the pressure gradient
tightens, winds increase across much of the area especially for
coastal areas and especially the northern half of the new jersey
coast. Most areas inland will have wind gusts of 25-35 mph into the
overnight. However, areas closer to the coast are expected to have
some gusts of 40-50 mph. The strongest winds are expected across
middlesex, monmouth and ocean counties, especially coastal areas
later this evening into the overnight. Therefore, a wind advisory
is in effect for these three counties.

As the low tracks across pennsylvania later tonight, drier air
begins to move in on the backside, and precipitation will begin to
come to an end front south to north. Areas across northeast
pennsylvania and northern new jersey may hold on to rain until
daybreak Sunday.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
As the low pressure system continues to lift to our north and
northwest toward the great lakes in the morning hours, most
precipitation will come to an end. However, our area will still be
under the influence of south-southwest flow aloft, along with
increasing southerly flow at the surface. This will allow for
temperatures to warm during the day, especially if any sunshine
breaks out. This will lead to increasing instability during the day,
and with any short wave vorticity impulses moving across the area,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through the day Sunday, especially during the afternoon hours. Since
storms are expected to be mostly scattered, and there is not overly
strong instability or shear expected, we are not expecting widespread
severe weather. Nor are we expecting widespread flooding as pw
values will be below 2 inches and any storms should be fairly
progressive.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
This unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue into the
upcoming week and at least the first part of next weekend. This
unsettled pattern can be attributed to a high amplitude pattern that
consists of a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS and
downstream ridge blocking over the western atlantic basin.

Tropospheric-deep southerly flow in between these two systems will
continue to draw tropical moisture up the eastern seaboard,
resulting in very muggy conditions (dewpoints in the 70s) and [at
least the threat of] multiple rounds of showers and storms each day.

Unlike with today's event, there doesn't appear to be any organized
synoptic disturbance(s) in particular to produce widespread rain
and or result in a washout on most days next week except possibly
sometime midweek when the cutoff low to our west becomes an open
wave and finally lifts northeastward through the region. Models
continue to struggle figuring out how quickly the shortwave trough
ejects downstream toward the mid atlantic but the spread has
narrowed between sometime Wednesday and Thursday. This timing
uncertainty prevented us from going much higher with pops in any one
period.

The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding this week will increase as
soils become increasingly wet and stages rise in area basins
following each successive round of rainfall. Potential hydro impacts
will be added to the hwo. With convective coverage much more
disorganized than with today's event, heavy rainfall should be much
more localized and thus responses from runoff on the larger river
basins next week is highly uncertain.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MVFR ifr conditions spread northward this evening with
periods of rain, then continuing overnight. The rain however will
end from south to north mostly in the 05z-08z time frame. East-
northeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots (highest gusts
closer to the coast), then becoming southeast and diminishing
overnight. An east to southeast low-level jet at 2000 feet of 40-50
knots will result in low-level wind shear even with the gusty
surface winds.

Sunday... Ifr to start, then the conditions are expected to improve
to MVFR during the morning and may improve toVFR during the
afternoon for some areas. There should be a lull in the showers for
a time in the morning, then some showers and a few thunderstorms
develop especially in the afternoon. Southeast to south winds around
10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible during the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday... Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through much of next week though activity will
generally not be widespread and or steady. Periods of sub-vfr
conditions are possible with this activity. SE winds generally
5-15 kt through Tuesday, becoming S Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
A gale warning remains in effect for all of the coastal waters,
including delaware bay. The northern portions of the new jersey
coastal waters are expected to have the strongest winds, at
least 40-45 knots. There is a brief window for an isolated gust
to reach 50 knots, but we are uncertain how much mixing will
occur and if those strongest winds mix down to the surface. So
for now we have kept with the gale warning.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... SCA will likely be needed. S-se winds
10- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal atlantic waters.

Waves will continue to remain elevated in the 4-7 ft range.

Monday night through Wednesday... S-se winds will weaken to below sca
criteria. However, a SCA will likely be needed with seas forecast to
remain near 5 ft.

Wednesday night and Thursday... S winds increase slightly to 15-20 kt
with a chance for 25 kt gusts in the coastal waters. Nonetheless, a
sca will likely be needed with seas still around 5 ft.

Rip currents...

high risk of rip currents has been extended through early Sunday
evening for the new jersey and delaware beaches.

Strong onshore flow this evening along with dangerous surf is
resulting in a high risk of rip currents. As for Sunday, the
surf looks to remain agitated despite low pressure well to our
north. The wave period should lengthen some and with a gusty
south to southeast wind, the high risk of rip currents was extended
through Sunday.

An enhanced rip current risk should linger into the early part
of the new week as a stiff southerly flow keeps wave heights
around 5 or 6 feet on the waters off our coast.

Tides coastal flooding
Despite a strong onshore flow, the surge has been lower than
expected especially up delaware bay. Therefore, the coastal
flood advisory has been cancelled. Some spotty minor tidal
flooding could still occur tonight especially when combined
with runoff from the ongoing areas of heavier rain.

Equipment
The kdox radar will remain offline until parts and a maintenance
kit to replace the azimuth and elevation motors are received.

The current estimated return to service is early next week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for paz060-070-071-
101>106.

Nj... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for njz014-
024>026.

Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for njz015>027.

Wind advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for njz012>014-020-026.

De... High rip current risk through Sunday evening for dez004.

Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for dez001>004.

Md... Flash flood watch until 6 am edt Sunday for mdz008-012-015-019-
020.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt Sunday for anz450>455.

Gale warning until 11 pm edt this evening for anz430-431.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Gorse robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein robertson
tides coastal flooding... Gorse
equipment... Gorse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 4 mi37 min 80°F1009.6 hPa
BDSP1 8 mi37 min 69°F 82°F1010.5 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 16 mi37 min 69°F 80°F1009.5 hPa
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 20 mi49 min ENE 9.9 G 19 68°F 81°F1010.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 27 mi37 min E 9.9 G 15 68°F 80°F1011.6 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 31 mi37 min ENE 16 G 22 69°F 75°F1008.5 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 32 mi37 min 69°F 80°F1007.7 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 42 mi55 min ENE 20 65°F 1010 hPa64°F
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 43 mi37 min ENE 12 G 16 68°F 81°F1008.3 hPa

Wind History for Philadelphia, PA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport, PA7 mi31 minNE 16 G 224.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist67°F66°F97%1010 hPa
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ16 mi31 minENE 66.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist70°F70°F100%1010.5 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA16 mi31 minENE 13 G 226.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist69°F64°F87%1011.3 hPa
Philadelphia - Wings Field Airport, PA20 mi50 minNE 8 G 164.00 miOvercast63°F62°F100%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from PHL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4E5E4E6E5E6E7E9E8E9E11E12E10E10E11E14NE15
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1 day agoSE5SE4E4SE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmE4E65E7SE55SE7E8SE4SE11SE11SE10SE9S5
2 days agoN9N10N9N8N6N8N6N5N6N6N10N7NE73E7E5E7E7S5SW3Calm44SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Westville, Rt. 47 bridge, Big Timber Creek, New Jersey
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Westville
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Sat -- 01:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:05 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:33 AM EDT     5.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:09 PM EDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.43.52.41.20.51.12.43.64.75.65.754.13.12.21.20.30.51.73.24.45.76.36

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     -1.77 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:31 PM EDT     -1.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:33 PM EDT     1.39 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-1.7-1.4-1.2-0.50.71.31.21.10.6-0.5-1.4-1.7-1.7-1.5-1.3-0.80.31.31.41.31.10.1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.