Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Refton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 17, 2017 11:28 AM EDT (15:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:50AMMoonset 3:38PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1103 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Rest of today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1103 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will pass through the area today before a cold front approaches Friday. The cold front will then pass through Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure will build to the north and west of the waters while a pressure trough will remain nearby for later Saturday and Sunday. The high pressure will shift offshore early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Refton, PA
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location: 39.88, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 171420
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1020 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Warm and increasingly humid air will surge into our region
from the southwest this afternoon and tonight as a warm front
draped across the ohio river valley lifts across the state.

Expect showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rain
and frequent lightning to become more frequent tonight into
early Friday morning. An approaching cold front will spark more
thunderstorms during the day Friday, especially across the
eastern half of the state where some may become strong to
severe. Cooler and drier should improve our weekend weather. A
ridge builds in early next week and we should warm up before
another northern stream cold front triggers showers again and
ushers in cooler drier air around mid-week.

Near term until 10 pm this evening
The sky cover is the main tweak in this update, with much more
sun than anticipated. One patch of lower clouds sliding over
adams co should begin to get eaten up by the strong
sunshine heating mixing. The increase in high clouds is on the
horizon - literally. Increased temps through the day just a
hair as well due to the overall sunnier outlook. We could see
something pop off the higher hills in the SE sc before anything
goes in the west since the SE is much more muggy. However, low
pops for low coverage.

Prev...

goes-16 10.3-3.9um fog product shows dendritic valley fog taking
shape across NRN pa along with the susq valley. The fog will
become locally dense for several hours during the mid morning
as a result of a high pressure ridge right over central pa
providing mainly clear skies, light wind, and quite cool temps
in the lower to mid 50s across the NRN mtns (where air stream
temp dwpt spreads are 20 to 25 deg f.

The fog will lift into a thin bkn-ovc stratus deck between
13-15z before dissolving and partly to mostly sunny skies follow
for the midday and afternoon hours as a warm front lift north
into the region and some mid and high clouds from upstream tsra
spill to the ese.

Will maintain 05-07z national blend of models pops for late
today and this evening which are in the chc to low likely range
over the approx western half of the cwa. If anything, these
pops may be slightly overdone across the central mtns and susq
valley.

Temps will be warmer than Wednesday with more
humidity... Especially late in the day as the warm front
approaches from the south. Highs this afternoon will be mainly
in the 80s, though the northern and southwestern mountains could
hold in the u70s.

Short term 10 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
The chance of rain and thunderstorms increases this evening
across the SW half of the cwa, and overnight elsewhere as a
deep cyclone moves into the western great lakes. Several
distinct LLJ features will stream north across the CWA during
this period ahead of an approaching sfc cold front, and will
interact with the warm front and approx 2 inch pwats to support
locally very heavy rain in training tsra. Some of the tsra will
contain frequent lightning and possibly some brief strong wind
gusts.

Cape actually climbs slightly across southern and central pa
late today and through the first half of tonight. This increase
in instability to these levels (of several hundred to just over
1000 j kg during the overnight hours only occurs about once a
year, if that here in central and ERN pa, and is notorious for
waking many from a sound sleep during the late night predawn
hours with frequent vivid lightning and booming thunder. With
pwat of 2 inches (or more across the SW part of the cwa) leading
to extremely heavy hourly and three hourly rainfl rates across
the central and SW part of our cwa, will have to closely monitor
for training tsra. Hourly FFG is still around 1 inch or less
across parts of the lower susq valley, while much of the rest of
the region has hourly values of 2 inches or more. Therefore,
unless we can foresee a specific target area comprised of both
time and duration of potentially repeating tsra (via later
version of the hrrr or other cams mesoscale models), then we
probably won't be posting a ffa with a tremendous amount of lead
time in excess of 6-8 hours.

Due to high pw and widespread thick clouds, it will stay warm
overnight with min temps only in the low to mid 60s across nrn
and WRN pa, and l70s in the southeast.

Sfc cold front pushes east to the susq valley or central mtns
between 20-22z (the prime hours to fire up some locally strong
to severe tsra.

A few discrete tsra (with some transient supercells) are likely
during this period. 0-1km ehis climb to between 1-2m2 s2 across
parts of central and scentral pa between 02-06z Friday.

Although updrafts may not be rooted right at the sfc, the
presence of the aforementioned LLJ s-ssw wind maxes, very high
pwat (low lcls), and the close presence of the warm front (which
will add a source for llvl shear and helicity), will create a
threat for rotating updrafts supercells and even a small chance
for a few weak tornadoes. Locally heavy rain, and frequent
lightning maybe the biggest threats.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The GEFS and cmcefs suggest our pw values drop during the
midday hours Friday (west) and afternoon early evening over the
east - back to normal as the cfront is forecast to push to our
east. This means improving weather from morning to afternoon.

Lowering pops over time.

We should remain relatively dry as the pw values stay near
normal until perhaps Tuesday. This said there are hints of a
weak wave and scattered showers perhaps Sunday.

Tuesday could be rather warm as there is a surge of above
normal 850 hpa temperatures and pw values above normal. Not
surprisingly the GEFS shows higher pops Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday with the wave and front.

We should enter the second half of the weak in a cooler and
drier air mass as currently forecast. And thus in the grids.

Bottom line in this period the NCEP guidance suggests low
probability of significant qpf.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Fog is gone and most of the day will be dry. Dewpoints fcst to
come up late today into Friday. This will lead to some storms
with heavy rain and gusty winds - mainly later tonight and
during the daylight hours on Friday. Impacts to flight
operations will be from tsra - and should be brief. However, fog
could be a problem Sat am with rain Fri then clearing overnight.

Improving conditions for the weekend, as the cold front
moves east of the area and dry air moves in under high pressure.

Outlook
Sat-mon... No sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo lambert
near term... Dangelo lambert
short term... Grumm lambert
long term... Grumm lambert
aviation... Dangelo martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 26 mi49 min E 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 1017.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 34 mi47 min ENE 4.1 G 7 79°F 81°F1017.5 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 42 mi41 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 77°F1017.3 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi41 min 78°F 80°F1016.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi41 min SSE 4.1 G 6 80°F 82°F1016.4 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 46 mi41 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 80°F 80°F1017.2 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 46 mi47 min 77°F 1017.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi41 min E 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 1016.8 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA17 mi36 minSE 510.00 miFair79°F69°F72%1017.2 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi34 minESE 510.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW46NW8W9NW6N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmCalmE4E4SE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW4E3SE6CalmCalmSE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmW4W5W3W4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmS5S4W6CalmE4E3SE3CalmSW3W8NW6NE3NE4N3E3NE3NE3E3E3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:09 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.71.222.93.63.93.83.53.12.72.31.81.51.31.31.72.22.42.42.11.71.3

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:50 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:25 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:42 PM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.511.62.22.62.72.62.21.81.40.90.60.40.40.71.11.61.81.91.71.410.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.