Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Refton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:28PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:12 AM EDT (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:45AMMoonset 11:16PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1032 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of today..N winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog late this morning. Isolated showers late this morning, then scattered showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will move toward the waters this afternoon...but stall and weaken by tonight. Another weak front will approach late Tuesday...also stalling and weakening. A third cold front will finally push through Wednesday night, with high pressure following on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Refton, PA
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location: 39.88, -76.27     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 291136
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
736 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A trough of low pressure will stall out over central and
eastern pa today. Low pressure will be centered over northern
ontario for most of the week and will lead to a period of
slightly cooler than normal temperatures. A series of fronts
will pass through and create many chances for showers through
the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Good news for the western counties as the showers are moving to
the east of them now and ending the heavy rain threat. The
showers should keep moving and be off to the east of the area by
mid-morning or noon at the latest. There are some breaks in the
clouds over oh, but the clearing process will likely be slow for
central pa. Only tweaks to timing and QPF for this update.

Prev...

widespread shra rolling across the area now. This should be the
last huurah for the heavy rain, as a strong short wave
trough MCV is easily seen in the radar loops zipping northeast
through northern pa. The surface front(s) are just about washed
into one general trough with it's axis over far western pa at
08z. This trough should push eastward another 150 miles, but
looks like it stalls out right over the susq river. Showers
should become more scattered shortly in the west with little
additional rainfall after 5 or 6 am. This will be welcome news
for there is some minor flooding on-going in clearfield co.

Rap now has a decent handle on where the precip is and the
movement of the cells elements. IR Sat pics show that the
convection moving into the laurels has cooling tops, and will
continue to produce some heavier rain rates. We do have a high
confidence in the rap forecast of rain placement & rates for the
next few hours. Not much lightning left in the showers
- and most of it is confined to just the laurels.

Expect that the showers will be done across the western 1 2 to
2 3rds of the CWA by 10 or 11 am. But the stalling of the sfc
trough means there will be a focusing mechanism in place. If
the Sun breaks through and there can be some good heating in the
susq valley, there could be a line of showers (maybe thunder)
develop later today.

Across the west, the air will dry out a little with a west wind
of 10-12 mph and a higher gust possible this aftn. Maxes will be
highly dependent of the amount of clearing that can develop. Rap
and NAM llvl rh plots yield a less-than-sunny forecast for the
eastern third and over the alleghenies. However, the late may
should combine with the wind mixing to make it pretty sunny in
the western half of the area this aftn. The clearing would come
late in the day for the east, and have nudged temps down a
little there.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Brief ridging will allow the skies to clear over most of the
area this evening, and residual moisture may lead to areas of
fog, especially in the eastern valleys. Mins will dip into the
50s for most, as the dewpoints will be the bottom limit.

A weak sfc trough will be pushed into the area from the
northwest tonight. 8h temps fall a bit over the nw. Heights
fall just a little, too, so some precip is possible before
sunrise Tuesday over the northwestern third of the area, but it
should be light. The trough begins to catch the stalled trough
over the eastern counties. The southerly or southeasterly wind
will yield good convergence and will crank up some showers and
thunderstorms. Have painted high pops for the area, but the
amount severity of destabilization is in question with the
clouds in the NE early in the day. NAM cranks out 1500joules of
cape and LI drops to -2 or so in the mid-day and aftn on tues.

Spc marginal risk of svr wx for day 2 (tues) is painted across
our eastern half, focused on the peak heating time. Will
continue to mention this in the hwo.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
The long term period will be dominated by a large upper level
low the will be slowly moving through the upper great lakes and
southern canada. As that quasi stationary low slowly moves to
the northeast, it will bring surges of cool moist air across the
region.

Several successive shortwave will move through mid to late week
which will bring the possibility of scattered showers with
preference for the majority of the QPF (albeit quite light at
that) to be across the typical west-nwrly flow upslope prone
areas of the laurel highlands and NW mtns. The chance for any
thunder will be very minimal Wed and Thursday.

Generally dry NW flow occurs late in the week into next weekend as
a 1020 sfc high over the upper midwest Friday evening builds SE twd
the region. Pops thur night through Fri night will be 30 percent or
less.

Late in the week the models begin to diverge on the location
and timing of the upper level low so there is less confidence on
precipitation late in the week. However depending where the
boundary sets up there could be periods of showers Friday
through Saturday, though currently should be mainly along the
southern border.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
Widespread subVFR CIGS across the airspace this morning after
overnight rain and thunderstorms will persist this morning. Slow
imporovement exected into this afternoon with main area of pcpn
having moved east of the region.

Depending on how much clearing occurs remains this evening,
widespread fog formation is possible regionwide tonight.

Outlook
Tue... Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wed... Chance of showers.

Thu... No sig wx expected.

Fri... Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo
short term... Dangelo
long term... Lambert ceru martin
aviation... Gartner martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 26 mi32 min E 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 1012.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 34 mi42 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 68°F1012.9 hPa
DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE 42 mi42 min E 7 G 8.9 60°F 66°F1012.7 hPa
RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE 43 mi42 min 61°F 67°F1012.2 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi42 min S 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 68°F1011.9 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 46 mi42 min 59°F 1012.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 46 mi42 min W 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 66°F1012.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi42 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 62°F 1012.4 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi42 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 62°F 1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake City, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA17 mi79 minESE 33.00 miFog/Mist60°F60°F100%1012.5 hPa
Chester County Airport, PA23 mi77 minE 82.00 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from LNS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6S8SE6S9S5S4SE7SE3SE5E5E4E7E7E7E8E4E4NE5E6E5E8E3E5
1 day agoW5NW6SW5W7SW7W5SW6SW4SW4SW3SW3S3CalmCalmE3SE3NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:19 PM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.32.52.421.61.20.80.60.60.91.62.53.43.83.73.432.41.81.30.90.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:39 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.121.81.40.90.50.30.40.81.52.22.732.92.52.11.61.10.60.30.20.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.