Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM   Moonset 5:40 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 436 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of this afternoon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely. Tue night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters during the middle to late part of the week.

FXUS61 KCTP 062013 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 348 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across south central PA through this evening. After a lull Tuesday morning and afternoon, scattered showers and a few storms are likely for Tuesday night into Wednesday. More widespread showers are expected Thursday night into Friday with unsettled and cooler conditions lasting into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
A weak cold front dropping through the area will maintain scattered showers and a few storms as it drops to the Maryland border this evening. Best chance for lightning strikes will be across the Laurel highlands, where MLCAPE is progged to reach 750-1000 J/kg.
Meanwhile, partly to mostly sunny skies will be enjoyed across northern and central PA with just a stray shower possible.

Most model guidance shows the convective activity along the southern tier waning tonight with the loss of daytime heating, but isolated to scattered light rain showers will likely persist. Some fog is possible tonight as well, though confidence in fog is not as high as it was last night. Low temps will range form the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier, with the north to south gradient in moisture playing a large role in overnight cooling.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F. A warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley, a 500mb short wave trough, and 850mb warm air advection pattern will result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties. Showers and a few storms will overspread the area Tuesday night as the warm front progresses northeast. MU CAPE during this time is likely to increase to near 1000 J/kg and support widespread thunderstorm activity.

Low temperatures Tuesday night will dip to the low 60s across the northern tier of the CWA and remain in the mid 60s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

Unsettled weather will continue into Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean 850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s across the Lower Susq Valley. Upper-level divergence overhead will be supportive of widespread showers and thunderstorms as the large scale upper level trough swings across the state. An 850mb LLJ will also be in place on Wednesday and Thursday during the 9-15z time frame, supporting late night/early morning convection. The SPC has outlined this threat with a MRGL SWO for Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A notable trend toward cooler conditions for late this week through the coming weekend as a broad trough develops over the Glakes and Eastern U.S. with several smaller scale shortwaves moving southeast within the northern branch of the upper jet.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the positive tilt upper trough (and cold 700 mb temps falling to around -4C) will likely support scattered-numerous, mainly diurnal showers Friday through Sunday. A low-topped tsra cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon/early evening.

GEFS mean 850 mb temps slip to between +2 and +4C (or about -1 sigma) Friday night through Saturday, before rebounding a few deg C Sunday into Monday. Mean 925 mb temps of just 8-10C later Friday through Sat morning will likely top even cooler LLVL air under cloudy conditions.

This cool airmass (with Canadian origin and trajectory over Lake Erie waters still in the upper 40s to around 50F) will combine with numerous late morning through early evening showers across at least the Central and Northern part of the CWA Friday to likely yield the coolest day we'll see til this Autumn with high temps staying in the U40s in some spots across the Northern Mtns. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common heading southeast from the Allegheny Front.

Temps will still be 2-5 deg F below normal over the upcoming weekend with mins at night near to a few deg F above normal due to varying amounts of clouds and at least a light breeze, which should limit any potential for frost to the patchy variety and confine it to the Northern Mountains Sat, Sun and Mon mornings.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Conditions have improved to mainly VFR for much of Central and Northern PA this afternoon. Lingering MVFR over the Scent and Southeastern PA could briefly lift to brief VFR between 20Z-23Z Monday. However, low pressure lifting up the Ohio Valley will likely spread showers and reduced cigs into the southern tier of PA Monday evening.

Conditions should slip back through MVFR to IFR in Central and Southern PA tonight through the mid morning Tuesday with areas of LIFR in fog and low cigs possible for 2-4 hours centered on daybreak Tuesday across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley.

In contrast, high pressure building into northern PA from the Grt Lks, will push drier air into that part of the state, keeping conditions mainly VFR there through tonight.

A warm front lifts northeast across Western and Central PA Tuesday afternoon and night, leading to a trend toward increasing areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a higher frequency of MVFR and brief IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA.
Scattered evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.

Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.

Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs likely. Scattered afternoon TSRA.

Fri...Showers with periods of low cigs possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 02:57 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:26 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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