Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 10:36 AM   Moonset 12:49 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 938 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Wednesday - .
Rest of tonight - SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night - N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ500 938 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will gradually lift north and east tonight, then its associated cold front will cross Wednesday into Thursday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters through early Friday.

FXUS61 KCTP 150023 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 823 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
-An upper low traversing the region will support scattered rain and a stray thunderstorm or two through Wednesday.
-High pressure builds on Thursday bringing drier, mild conditions and the only sunshine of the week.
-Clouds and showers return later on Friday, preceding yet another wet and cool Saturday as the unsettled pattern persists.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A surface low developing over N Carolina/Southern VA ahead of an approaching shortwave/upper low will produce deepening easterly flow overnight. The influx of moisture will help keep skies mostly cloudy as cool but stable air generates periods of light rain across the region. Lows tonight between 55 and 60 will be +5 to +15 compared to normal. Low clouds and rain along with light winds will promote reduced visibility and some patchy fog overnight, especially on ridgetops.

Little change to the pattern expected through Wednesday as easterly flow, overcast skies, and scattered light rain persist. An 850 mb low will drift over the Delmarva region as the nose of an approx -2 sigma Southeasterly 925-850 mb jet drifts N over the Mid Atlantic Piedmont region. A classic cold air damming scenario support trending below guidance and keeping high temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Have scaled back on the likelihood and extent of thunder chances as well. Rain will not produce any significant rainfall rates, but multiple rounds of precipitation should produce an average of a half inch of rain across the region through Wednesday evening.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Conditions will improve Wednesday night through Thursday as a wedge of high pressure drifts south from Canada, though improvement could be relatively slow. Areas of low clouds and ridgetop fog are likely to persist through Thursday morning before clearing skies build in later Thursday afternoon. With upper troughing slowing moving east of the region and cold temps aloft, can't rule out some scattered showers in the afternoon.

Thursday afternoon could be the only time we see blue skies this week. Sunshine will help temperatures get closer to climatological averages ranging from the low to mid 70s.
By Thursday night, upper level ridging will shut off any lingering shower activity while high clouds begin to stream in ahead of the next weather maker. Another mild night with lows in the 50s on Thursday precedes a dry start to Friday. By Friday afternoon, southeasterly flow ahead of an approaching low pressure system will bring a return of overcast skies and showers to the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
On the large-scale, a fairly zonal upper-level flow pattern is expected across the CONUS from late this week into the early portion of next week. Within this zonal flow, an energetic northern stream will keep frequent short-waves and surface frontal passages traversing the northern tier of states, including PA.

Although the above described pattern is not likely to feature any complete washouts or widespread heavy rainfall, not many completely dry days are foreseen either, with at least hit and miss showers likely to prevail.

The most widespread shower activity could occur on Saturday, with a surface wave anticipated to track south of the Commonwealth, and a relatively cool E-SE flow pattern in place in the lower levels. Outside of that, as alluded to above, showers should be mostly scattered in nature and diurnally centered on the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures should average close to seasonal normals for mid- May, with mostly upper 60s-70s foreseen by day. The one exception is Saturday, when upper 50s and 60s are most probable. Given lots of clouds and shower activity, any frost/freeze conditions appear highly unlikely, with night-time lows mostly in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure over the Carolinas will lift up the east coast tonight, spreading rain and lowering cigs across Central PA. At 22Z, IFR/low MVFR cigs are noted across the southern half of the state. However, a moistening southeast flow should yield widespread IFR/LIFR cigs by late tonight into Wed morning.

Expect modest improvement in flying conditions by Wed afternoon, as the weakening low pressure system passes off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A moist easterly flow should cause stratus to persist. However, rain should taper off and a bit of diurnal heating/mixing should result in a slight increase in cigs. Ensemble prob charts suggest IFR cigs by Wed afternoon will be confined mainly to the Laurel Highlands (KJST), with MVFR conditions elsewhere.

Outlook...

Thu...AM low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns.

Fri...AM low cigs/fog possible, especially Central Mtns. Evening showers/low cigs possible Central Mtns.

Sat...Rain/low cigs possible, esp Central Mtns.

Sun...Lingering low cigs possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:54 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:37 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:15 AM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:26 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:44 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:17 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2), Tide feet

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