Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Conestoga, PA
May 7, 2024 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:55 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 4:25 AM Moonset 6:57 PM |
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 735 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Today - E winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Patchy fog this morning. Showers likely this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less this morning.
Tonight - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming W late. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers.
Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat - NW winds 10 kt - .becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 071133 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 733 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Central PA will remain in the vicinity of an oscillating frontal boundary through midweek, with one area of low pressure along the front passing north of the state early Wednesday. Another, more significant, wave of low pressure will pass south of PA Thursday. An upper level trough will then pivot into the region late this week into next weekend, cooling things down a bit, back close to normals.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Fog has become dense over the Lower Susq. Have posted a FG.Y for the next few hrs to allow for the fog to lift slowly. Sunrise should be helping out any second, now.
Prev...
Dewpoints are dropping slowly across the central mountains, and the southern tier has yet to see any change in airmass. The front may be down to about Route 22, and still moving south in no hurry. The light and variable wind this AM will become easterly, then veer around to the south, esp over the SWrn half of the area this afternoon. That will happen as the front turns back around as a warm front and lifts back to the north. Clouds across the north this AM should yield to more in the way of sun.
As the day heats up, albeit meagerly, some showers, and perhaps one thunderstorm will pop up over wrn mtns. These won't have the support available to continue growing/expanding eastward.
Maxes in the low to mid 70s will be 4-9F above normals with the bigger departures over the northern tier with more sun there than in the S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low pressure will move toward PA and wrn NY this evening, crossing the area overnight. Numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected with the greatest coverage and intensities over the W in the warm sector where the LLJet peaks in the evening and early night. Intense/near-severe storms shouldn't get much farther east than BFD-UNV-AOO. SPC has placed the SWrn corner of the CWA into the MRGL risk for svr wx as a cold front plows thru overnight.
Tonight should be very warm for early May due to the clouds and mild southerly flow before the cold front passes later at night.
Mins in the L60s will cover most of the CWA
Model guidance tracks the weak surface low north of PA Wednesday, with a weak trailing cold front coming through during the morning hours. Any morning showers should give way to increasing sunshine, as drier air works in behind the front. Model 850mb temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid 80s in the valleys of Central/Southern PA.
Unsettled weather will return Thursday, as an upstream trough approaches from the Grt Lks. Latest guidance tracks the associated surface low south of PA, resulting in a rainy/cool Thursday, with elevated convection and a marginal risk of severe wx along the southern tier counties. Will likely be undercutting NBM temp guidance Thursday if current model trends hold. Raw operational model surface temps struggle to reach 60F over parts of the area Thursday. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely rain totals Thursday of around a half inch.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A notable trend toward cooler conditions for late this week through the coming weekend as a broad trough develops over the Glakes and Eastern U.S. with several smaller scale shortwaves moving southeast within the northern branch of the upper jet.
The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the positive tilt upper trough (and cold 700 mb temps falling to around -4C) will likely support scattered-numerous, mainly diurnal showers Friday through Sunday. A low-topped tsra cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon/early evening.
GEFS mean 850 mb temps slip to between +2 and +4C (or about -1 sigma) Friday night through Saturday, before rebounding a few deg C Sunday into Monday. Mean 925 mb temps of just 8-10C later Friday through Sat morning will likely top even cooler LLVL air under cloudy conditions.
This cool airmass (with Canadian origin and trajectory over Lake Erie waters still in the upper 40s to around 50F) will combine with numerous late morning through early evening showers across at least the Central and Northern part of the CWA Friday to likely yield the coolest day we'll see til this Autumn with high temps staying in the U40s in some spots across the Northern Mtns. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common heading southeast from the Allegheny Front.
Temps will still be 2-5 deg F below normal over the upcoming weekend with mins at night near to a few deg F above normal due to varying amounts of clouds and at least a light breeze, which should limit any potential for frost to the patchy variety and confine it to the Northern Mountains Sat, Sun and Mon mornings.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ample low level moisture trapped beneath a surface inversion has led to the development of fog across south central PA, which will last through about 13-14z. Farther north, drier air will be prohibitive of widespread fog, but patchy valley fog remains possible.
After morning fog lifts, most or all of central PA will see VFR conds by Tue afternoon, with a few pockets of MVFR cigs.
Isolated to scattered -SHRA will be possible during the day. A warm front will lift northeast across western and central PA Tuesday afternoon and night, leading to a trend toward increasing areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a higher frequency of MVFR and brief IFR conditions, especially after 00z Wed. Marginal LLWS will be possible, but left it out of the TAFs for now, as confidence is low. Drier air will begin to work into the western airfields around 12z Wed, but sfc fog may develop prior to sunrise as the low level moisture is slow to scour out.
Outlook...
Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA.
Scattered evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.
Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.
Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs likely. Scattered afternoon TSRA.
Fri and Sat...Showers with periods of low cigs possible.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ057-059- 065-066.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 733 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Central PA will remain in the vicinity of an oscillating frontal boundary through midweek, with one area of low pressure along the front passing north of the state early Wednesday. Another, more significant, wave of low pressure will pass south of PA Thursday. An upper level trough will then pivot into the region late this week into next weekend, cooling things down a bit, back close to normals.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Fog has become dense over the Lower Susq. Have posted a FG.Y for the next few hrs to allow for the fog to lift slowly. Sunrise should be helping out any second, now.
Prev...
Dewpoints are dropping slowly across the central mountains, and the southern tier has yet to see any change in airmass. The front may be down to about Route 22, and still moving south in no hurry. The light and variable wind this AM will become easterly, then veer around to the south, esp over the SWrn half of the area this afternoon. That will happen as the front turns back around as a warm front and lifts back to the north. Clouds across the north this AM should yield to more in the way of sun.
As the day heats up, albeit meagerly, some showers, and perhaps one thunderstorm will pop up over wrn mtns. These won't have the support available to continue growing/expanding eastward.
Maxes in the low to mid 70s will be 4-9F above normals with the bigger departures over the northern tier with more sun there than in the S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low pressure will move toward PA and wrn NY this evening, crossing the area overnight. Numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected with the greatest coverage and intensities over the W in the warm sector where the LLJet peaks in the evening and early night. Intense/near-severe storms shouldn't get much farther east than BFD-UNV-AOO. SPC has placed the SWrn corner of the CWA into the MRGL risk for svr wx as a cold front plows thru overnight.
Tonight should be very warm for early May due to the clouds and mild southerly flow before the cold front passes later at night.
Mins in the L60s will cover most of the CWA
Model guidance tracks the weak surface low north of PA Wednesday, with a weak trailing cold front coming through during the morning hours. Any morning showers should give way to increasing sunshine, as drier air works in behind the front. Model 850mb temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid 80s in the valleys of Central/Southern PA.
Unsettled weather will return Thursday, as an upstream trough approaches from the Grt Lks. Latest guidance tracks the associated surface low south of PA, resulting in a rainy/cool Thursday, with elevated convection and a marginal risk of severe wx along the southern tier counties. Will likely be undercutting NBM temp guidance Thursday if current model trends hold. Raw operational model surface temps struggle to reach 60F over parts of the area Thursday. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely rain totals Thursday of around a half inch.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A notable trend toward cooler conditions for late this week through the coming weekend as a broad trough develops over the Glakes and Eastern U.S. with several smaller scale shortwaves moving southeast within the northern branch of the upper jet.
The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the positive tilt upper trough (and cold 700 mb temps falling to around -4C) will likely support scattered-numerous, mainly diurnal showers Friday through Sunday. A low-topped tsra cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon/early evening.
GEFS mean 850 mb temps slip to between +2 and +4C (or about -1 sigma) Friday night through Saturday, before rebounding a few deg C Sunday into Monday. Mean 925 mb temps of just 8-10C later Friday through Sat morning will likely top even cooler LLVL air under cloudy conditions.
This cool airmass (with Canadian origin and trajectory over Lake Erie waters still in the upper 40s to around 50F) will combine with numerous late morning through early evening showers across at least the Central and Northern part of the CWA Friday to likely yield the coolest day we'll see til this Autumn with high temps staying in the U40s in some spots across the Northern Mtns. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common heading southeast from the Allegheny Front.
Temps will still be 2-5 deg F below normal over the upcoming weekend with mins at night near to a few deg F above normal due to varying amounts of clouds and at least a light breeze, which should limit any potential for frost to the patchy variety and confine it to the Northern Mountains Sat, Sun and Mon mornings.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ample low level moisture trapped beneath a surface inversion has led to the development of fog across south central PA, which will last through about 13-14z. Farther north, drier air will be prohibitive of widespread fog, but patchy valley fog remains possible.
After morning fog lifts, most or all of central PA will see VFR conds by Tue afternoon, with a few pockets of MVFR cigs.
Isolated to scattered -SHRA will be possible during the day. A warm front will lift northeast across western and central PA Tuesday afternoon and night, leading to a trend toward increasing areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a higher frequency of MVFR and brief IFR conditions, especially after 00z Wed. Marginal LLWS will be possible, but left it out of the TAFs for now, as confidence is low. Drier air will begin to work into the western airfields around 12z Wed, but sfc fog may develop prior to sunrise as the low level moisture is slow to scour out.
Outlook...
Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA.
Scattered evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.
Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.
Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs likely. Scattered afternoon TSRA.
Fri and Sat...Showers with periods of low cigs possible.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ057-059- 065-066.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD | 35 mi | 57 min | 0G | 64°F | 65°F | 29.82 | ||
| DELD1 - 8551762 - Delaware City, DE | 42 mi | 57 min | NNW 1G | 64°F | 29.81 | |||
| RDYD1 - 8551910 - Reedy Point, DE | 44 mi | 57 min | 64°F | 63°F | 29.80 | |||
| BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD | 45 mi | 57 min | NNE 1G | 66°F | 68°F | |||
| MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA | 46 mi | 57 min | 64°F | 62°F | 29.81 | |||
| TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD | 46 mi | 57 min | ESE 2.9G | 29.82 | ||||
| CBCM2 | 47 mi | 57 min | NE 1G | 29.80 | ||||
| FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD | 48 mi | 57 min | ENE 1G | 65°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLNS LANCASTER,PA | 17 sm | 4 min | calm | 3 sm | Partly Cloudy | Mist | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 29.83 |
| KMQS CHESTER COUNTY G O CARLSON,PA | 23 sm | 20 min | NNE 06 | 5 sm | Clear | Mist | 64°F | 64°F | 100% | 29.85 |
Port Deposit
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT 2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT 0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT 3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT 0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT 2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.3 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.2 |
| 9 am |
| 3.1 |
| 10 am |
| 3.7 |
| 11 am |
| 3.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.3 |
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:19 PM EDT 2.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT 0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EDT 2.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EDT 0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:19 PM EDT 2.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 2.5 |
| 9 am |
| 2.9 |
| 10 am |
| 2.9 |
| 11 am |
| 2.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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