Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 12:10 AM   Moonset 8:59 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1058 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Mon - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1058 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure building across the area through Monday will bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions. A cold front crosses the waters Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another front crosses later in the workweek. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.

FXUS61 KCTP 290246 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1046 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Patchy fog possible in northern PA tonight, especially in locations that received rain Sunday afternoon/evening.
-Well above average temperatures persist this week with highs in the 70s and 80s; near-record highs possible Monday.
-Cold fronts Tuesday and Friday-Saturday bring showers and storms. Potential for a few heavy downpours.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A very mild night is in store for tonight thanks to the higher dewpoints that are in place. Mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling such that temperatures fall to near or just above the dewpoint temperatures. In locations that received rainfall this afternoon, patchy fog is possible. Based on the current forecast, locations north of I-80 are most likely to have fog. Lows on Monday morning will be in the 55 to 60F range, which is +10 to +15 compared to average.

Monday will be the warmest day of the week as the ridge of high pressure reaches its maximum northward extent Monday afternoon.
Surface high pressure to the south of PA will result in ample sunshine and west-southwest flow characteristic of a true summer day. Recent model guidance continues to suggest MaxTs in the 80s nearly everywhere and an outside chance at 90 near the Mason- Dixon line. Have blended in some of the NBM 90th percentile to capture the potential for temperatures to exceed expectations given deep mixing and plenty of warm air advection continuing. Some afternoon convection across mainly northern PA does appear plausible given embedded shortwaves within the ridge axis. If convection manages to occur, MaxTs across northern PA could be limited to the upper 70s but will still be well above seasonable averages.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Monday night will be similar to Sunday night with temperatures falling near the dewpoint temperature (upper 50s to low 60s).
Some increasing high clouds will begin streaming in overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. There is some signal for a few showers or storms moving across the central mountains Monday evening, but dry conditions should prevail for most.

By Tuesday morning, low pressure from the Central Plains will move northwest of the area, bringing a weak sfc cold front across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours.
Showers are expected at the onset Tuesday morning across NW PA.
The surface low will transfer its energy to a developing coastal low on Tuesday evening. This will help focus moisture advection and elevated instability across eastern PA where a few stronger showers and thunderstorms are possible. PWAT values of 1.25" are near the 99th percentile for this time of year and will support torrential rainfall. With storm motions in a northeasterly direction, some training is possible and could lead to isolated flash flooding, which as prompted a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center.
Recent dry conditions may mitigate any major concerns.

Showers will gradually weaken overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but a lingering stationary boundary will keep cloudiness and unsettled weather around into the first part of Wednesday. Another mild night is in store across the southeast where clouds will stay put and temperatures remain in the low 60s. Some clearing appears possible in northwest PA and could support lows touching the upper 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Showers become more scattered in nature Wednesday afternoon with dry conditions expected by the evening hours as an upper- level ridge takes hold over the region.

Model solutions have started to latch onto a stronger upper- level ridge solution, providing fair weather on Thursday and into the first half Friday. It is of note that a slightly weaker shortwave could allow for some shower activity, but given successive runs of guidance brining about a stronger shortwave, have opted to cut PoPs out from this timeframe.

A low-pressure stationed over the Great Lakes will bring about the next sfc cold front across central PA later on Friday and throughout the day on Saturday. There is fairly good agreement with deterministic model guidance in regards to precipitation associated with the frontal passage, although timing remains the biggest uncertainty at this time. The timing is likely to have a big impact on observed temperatures on Saturday. In the warmer scenario, a slower frontal passage would allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s areawide. A faster arrival of precipitation and clouds could keep temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Have opted for a middle of the road scenario at this point with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

After the frontal passage Saturday, the upper pattern trends more zonal supporting seasonable temperatures with occasional chances for rain for the first full week of May.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Widespread VFR conditions are noted over Central PA early this evening. The only potential of reductions in the near term will be with a line of showers moving across Northeast PA. Radar trends suggest a brief vis reduction is possible until about 01Z east of KIPT.

The main focus for late tonight will be the potential of valley fog across primarily Northern PA. Model data indicates low level moisture is pooling over this part of the state, just south of a stalled frontal boundary over NY state. Current model guidance indicates MVFR vsbys are likely north of I-80 late tonight, with a chance (25-50pct) of IFR. Further south, mainly VFR conditions are anticipated, but can't rule out brief vis reductions around dawn as far south as MDT/LNS.

High pressure should ensure VFR conditions and light winds for nearly all of Central PA Monday. The only potential of reductions would be along the NY border north of KIPT or on the southern tier near KHGR, where an isolated late day shower/vis reduction is possible.

Outlook...

Tue...Isold PM tsra impacts Eastern PA. Evening low cigs poss W Mtns.

Wed...Early AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Evening showers/cig reductions possible.

CLIMATE
Monday will be the warmest day of the week and high temperatures could approach record levels. Here are the current record high temperatures for April 29th at several climate sites in Central PA:

SITE RECORD YEAR Altoona 83F 1974 Bradford 76F 1984 Harrisburg 90F 1974 Johnstown 88F 1974 State College 89F 1942 Williamsport 86F 1974

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:14 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:23 PM EDT     3.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:00 PM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:21 AM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:00 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:30 PM EDT     2.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2), Tide feet

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