Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Felton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 7:25PM Friday March 24, 2017 12:11 AM EDT (04:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:01AMMoonset 2:46PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1031 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt Friday through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Diminishing to around 5 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers through the night.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will slide offshore tonight, allowing a warm front to lift through the area on Friday. A low pressure system will then approach the area Sunday, and move through Sunday night into Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Friday night and again Sunday and Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felton , PA
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location: 39.88, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 240319
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1119 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
As an upper level ridge builds over the eastern us we could see
brief period of freezing rain Friday morning than a rapid warm
up. Our mid-tropospheric heights and temperatures will be
slightly above normal into next week. A few week systems could
bring showers to the region but at this time the pattern does
not suggest any significant rain events.

Near term /until 8 am Friday morning/
Under clear skies temperatures have faded away rapidly. Many
locations have fallen into the 20s. Difficult to display this
consistently and collaboratively in our grids.

Satellite imagery shows a larger area of deep cold cloud tops
over michigan and leading cirrus over ohio. Clouds are coming
and behind them some rainfall is coming.

Due to the cold air in the boundary layer the rain will likely
start as freezing rain over northern and some central areas.

Farther south less QPF is forecast and later in time so less
likely they will see freezing rain.

The hrrr and its coarser twin the rap show the precipitation
coming in slower with each run. Likely most areas will not see
any precipitation much before 4 to 6 am. In with 0.01 to about
0.10 inches of QPF a light glaze is possible before 8 am in
northern and central areas.

Most of the region in the advisory for freezing rain could see a
light glaze this morning. If and where it rains.

Short term /8 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday/
There will be a lingering threat for isolated freezing rain in
the 8 am to 10 am timeframe in some locations and perhaps 11 am
in colder areas of our northeastern areas. But the forecast
rapid warm up and the march Sun angles should help reduce this
fast. One might not see the Sun but the shortwave energy will
reach roads and walks.

The chance of rain diminishes during the day.

There should be a very rapid warm up by late morning and into the
afternoon. Winter will have exited stage east and it may be
along time before we see any significantly cold weather again.

High temperatures should range mainly from the 50 to the lower
60s. Warmest in the south/southwest.

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/
At the outset of the longer term period the models are in fair
agreement in timing and strength. All are indicating a boundary
just to the north of pennsylvania with a large upper level low
moving through the central midwest. A negatively tilted ridge
over the mid atlantic will allow for stable but cloudy weather
into Saturday. Lows Friday night into Saturday should range from
the upper 40s to low 50s. There could be light rain showers on
Saturday but warm and stable. A cooler moist boundary should
move into the region Sunday out ahead of the approaching low.

Have adjusted pops for timing and intensity. QPF remains
variable but possible wet period Sunday into Monday.

Above average temperatures are expected over the weekend with
the warmest day likely on Saturday with some sites approaching
70f over southern pa. Sunday should be markedly cooler behind
a backdoor cold front and a likelihood of rain. However, above
average temperatures (especially nighttime) appear very likely
through early next week, as 12z GEFS indicates pa remains
beneath a mean upper level ridge and plume of anomalous pwats.

The chance of showers will spike with passage of next shortwave
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/
Mid level cloud is on the increase along with surface winds
veering to 90-140 degrees. Light precip will move across the
region between 06-18z Friday, starting as ra/fzra/pl before
transitioning to all ra by 15z Friday. Added prob30 group to
hedge toward brief period of ice mix around daybreak Friday.

Conditions will remain generally MVFR even through the precip
times. Possibly a brief period of ifr in kbfd and kjst from
10-14z.

Precip ends by 18z in all locations with increasing ceilings.

Outlook...

sat... MainlyVFR. Chance of rain northern 1/2 airspace.

Sun-tue... Sub-vfr with periods of rain.

Climate
Minimum temperature records for 3/23 at select sites:
mdt: 14 in 1934
ipt: 8 in 1906
bfd: 5 in 1959
aoo: 15 in 1960

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories
Winter weather advisory from 4 am to 11 am edt Friday for
paz005-006-010>012-017>019-026>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059.

Synopsis... Grumm
near term... Grumm
short term... Grumm
long term... Fitzgerald/ceru
aviation... Devoir/evanego/tyburski
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi42 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 44°F1034.3 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi42 min Calm G 1 31°F 45°F1034.3 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi42 min S 8.9 G 12 39°F 1033.7 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi42 min S 8.9 G 9.9 40°F 1034.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi42 min S 2.9 G 5.1 37°F 44°F1035.1 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi19 minS 410.00 miFair35°F18°F50%1033 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA21 mi19 minENE 410.00 miFair31°F18°F59%1033.5 hPa

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N93536CalmSW63SW6S4CalmCalmSE7S6S4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW6NW16
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W5NW9NW8W6NW9W10W10W6W4W4SW5W5W4W4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:38 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:00 PM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.10.80.60.60.71.21.61.91.91.71.41.10.70.40.20.20.51.11.72.22.32.32

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:25 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM EDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:03 PM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.60.40.40.611.41.71.81.71.51.20.80.60.50.60.91.41.82.22.32.21.91.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.