Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Felton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:27PM Saturday May 27, 2017 7:55 AM EDT (11:55 UTC) Moonrise 6:39AMMoonset 9:30PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 731 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Today..NE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Numerous showers this morning, then numerous showers with isolated tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Scattered showers.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 731 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move off the mid-atlantic coast today while a warm front lifts into the area. The front will stall out near the waters through Sunday before a cold front moves into the area Monday. The boundary will stall south of the waters for Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felton , PA
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location: 39.88, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 271147
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
747 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will ride to the south of pa this morning and
keep a warm front just south of the state today and tonight. The
warm front will try to work to the north as a cold front
approaches the region on Sunday. The cold front will pass
through on Monday morning. Low pressure will stall over
northern ontario mid-week and create a slightly cooler than
normal and unsettled stretch of weather.

Near term until 7 pm this evening
Lightning passing close enough to include a mention for the next
hour or two.

Prev...

cirrus and lowering cloud cover are moving in from the west. The
convection which has been producing these clouds has just about
dissipated as it slides to the SE just north of a warm front. The
residual showers anvil rain will pass through the SW portion of
the CWA this morning. Dewpoints overhead and over md WV are
only in the lower to mid 50s, and stability here argues against
mentioning the t word for the morning despite the lingering
presence of t in central oh. Sprinkles will fall in the laurels
through 6 or 7 am before the more-likely time for rain which is
between 7 and 10 am.

The rain should slink to the SE and dissipate through the
morning. It will be either gone or off to the east of the area
by noon. Places N of fig-unv-seg will likely stay dry, and pops
will be held below 30pct there. But, we will still mention some
as the flow could still make some sprinkles up that-a-way.

The afternoon looks nice with lots of sunshine in the northwest,
but a bit of a struggle will be had to get Sun through the
clouds in the south and east. The proximity of the warm front
just south of the state will mean some cloudiness is expected to
linger across the s. Will keep just a 20-30 pop S of the
turnpike for the aftn. The chc for thunder does exist along the
md border, so we will just mention it only there for now, as spc
does just nick us with mrgl risk mention for any aftn
convection. Maxes will be within a deg or two of 70f. So, take a
break from heating cooling the house today. Get out and enjoy
an afternoon picnic.

Short term 7 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Clearing across the north this afternoon and evening will not
last too long as the northerly flow from ny will bring some
lake-related clouds in from the north. The low level flow will
be more from the SE in southern pa (north of the warm front).

This could allow crud (a.K.A. Low stratus clouds) to creep in
from the south east. The more-likely places to see the low
clouds will be right along the md border and up into the laurels
where upglide due to the elevation change will help aid in
cooling and condensation. Mins will be in the u50s S and l-m50s
elsewhere.

Will start to mention a little dz possible in the sw, but keep
pops almost nil tonight and Sun am. As the flow becomes more
southerly in advance of the storm approaching from the west, the
chance for storms increases on Sunday afternoon. The
destabilization will be easiest in the east where less low
clouds are expected, but the deeper moisture is off to the west
and the dynamics are even farther to the west. Pwat GOES above
1.5 inches in the west by the end of the day Sunday. Will ramp
pops up in the west through the aftn, leaving the east in chc or
less pops.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
A quick transition to increasing deep layer moisture and higher
pwat air of 1-1.25 inches will occur late Sunday.

A large-scale trough and increasing upper level divergence
(associated with a lead upper shortwave in the west SW flow)
will lead to a fairly large area of moderately strong uvvel and
a widespread moderate rainfall along and ahead of a cold front.

Gefs probs for ge 0.50 inch of rain 24 hours ranges from 50-80
percent across the WRN mtns of pa... To generally less than 50
percent across the eastern half of the state. This translates
into very high pops for measurable rain (90 percent or more)
across the western half of the cwa, to between 70 and 90 percent
across the south-central mtns and susq valley.

12z ec and 12z GEFS are in very good agreement on the
timing location of the north south sfc cold front during the
afternoon hours Monday across the eastern half of the state with
weak deep- layer ridging and drying for Monday afternoon and
night. Dry conditions expected Tuesday morning before
significant cooling aloft accompanies a pair of short waves late
Tuesday and later Wednesday.

Pops during this midweek period will be painted as chc -
translating to scattered showers with preference for the
majority of the QPF (albeit quite light at that)to be across the
typical west-nwrly flow upslope prone areas of the laurel
highlands and NW mtns. The chance for any thunder will be very
minimal Tuesday through Thursday.

Generally dry NW flow occurs late in the week into next weekend as
a 1020 sfc high over the upper midwest Friday evening builds SE twd
the region. Pops thur night through Fri night will be 30 percent or
less.

After our bout of coolish weather with temps several deg f below
normal Sunday and Monday, GEFS mean temps rebound back to near or
slightly above normal (even under slightly cooling 850 mb temps)
for Tuesday through at least Thursday. Ecens mean temps are several
deg warmer than the GEFS and nat'l blend of models temps. Leaned
closer to the cooler solutions based on the few-svrl deg c of
cooling aloft with near to slightly below 850 mb temps.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Area of showers should continue to weaken as they move over the
southern 1 2 of the airspace this morning. MVFR restrictions
are likely at jst and may briefly impact aoo. Most of the pcpn
will end around midday with just a slight chance for an isolated
shower to TSTM across the southern 1 2 of the airspace this
afternoon. Fog may become a concern later tonight into Sunday
morning based on guidance blend and have added vcfg to all tafs
after 03-04z.

Outlook
Sun... Am fog. Sub-vfr possible in showers tstorms Sunday night
into Monday.

Mon... Am showers low CIGS possible.

Tue... No sig wx expected.

Wed... Slight chance of showers reduced cigs.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo
short term... Dangelo
long term... Lambert
aviation... Steinbugl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44057 - Susquehanna, MD 34 mi25 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 1012.6 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi37 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 67°F1012.6 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi43 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 60°F 67°F1012.9 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi37 min W 5.1 G 6 63°F 1013 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi37 min W 5.1 G 7 63°F 1012.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi37 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 65°F1013 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1013 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA21 mi62 minSSW 310.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W8W6W7W12
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W8W7W9W6W10W4W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalm
1 day agoE10--E6NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmN6N3N3NW4E6W6W3W4W5W3W4W43W6
2 days agoW5CalmE5E64E5SE8SE10SE8SE85SE9SE6SE5SE10E7E10E14
G20
E12E12E8E10E9E10

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:04 AM EDT     2.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:32 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.321.51.10.70.40.40.71.42.53.444.13.83.32.72.11.50.90.60.50.91.5

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:24 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:56 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.81.410.60.30.30.61.32.12.73.13.12.72.31.71.20.70.30.10.30.81.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.