Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:26 AM   Moonset 6:59 PM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 133 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Overnight - W winds 5 kt. Waves flat. Numerous showers with isolated tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Sat - NW winds 10 kt - .becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 133 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.

FXUS61 KCTP 070303 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1103 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Central PA will remain in the vicinity of an oscillating frontal boundary through midweek, with one wave on the front passing north of the state early Wednesday and another more significant wave of low pressure passing south of Pennsylvania Thursday. An upper level trough will then pivot into the region late this week into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Late evening water vapor loop shows a potent-looking shortwave crossing the Central Appalachians into Western VA. Scattered convection preceding this feature has diminished with boundary layer cooling this evening. However, falling heights and a bit of elevated instability supports a slight chance of showers overnight across Southern PA.

Meanwhile, a weak cold front is currently located just south of I-80 and is progged to slide into the southwest corner of the forecast area by dawn. Breaking clouds and drier air north of this boundary should allow temperatures to cool to the mid and upper 40s over the northern tier late tonight. Further south, more persistent cloud cover and higher humidity will result min temps between 55-60F over the southern half of the state. Have added patchy fog to the late night forecast over Southern PA.
Dewpoint depressions are near zero, so it will only take a few breaks in the overcast to cause fog to form.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper level ridging over PA should result in a dry and warm Tuesday over most of the forecast area with highs in the low to mid 70s.
However, instability and low level convergence in the vicinity of an approaching warm front will likely result in scattered PM showers/tsra over the southwest part of the forecast area. Modest capes of less than 500 J/kg signal little risk of severe weather.
High pressure and associated low-pwat airmass traversing upstate NY should provide the northern tier counties with mostly sunny skies Tuesday. Elsewhere, model RH profiles support a mix of sun and cumulus.

Tuesday night should be very warm for early May, as the region breaks into the warm sector south of a weak surface low tracking across the Eastern Grt Lks. Falling heights and surging low level moisture ahead of the parent shortwave should support a round of showers/tsra across most of the region Tuesday night accompanying the passage of the low level jet. The latest HRRR supports POPs from 60-90pct, with the highest POPs across the W Mtns.

Model guidance tracks the weak surface low north of PA Wednesday, with a weak trailing cold front coming through during the morning hours. Any morning showers should give way to increasing sunshine, as drier air works in behind the front.
Model 850mb temps near 15C support highs ranging from the mid and upper 70s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid 80s in the valleys of Central/Southern PA.

Unsettled weather will return Thursday, as an upstream trough approaches from the Grt Lks. Latest guidance tracks the associated surface low south of PA, resulting in a rainy/cool Thursday, with elevated convection and a marginal risk of severe wx along the southern tier counties. Will likely be undercutting NBM temp guidance Thursday if current model trends hold. Raw operational model surface temps struggle to reach 60F over parts of the area Thursday. Latest ensemble plumes indicate most likely rain totals Thursday of around a half inch.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A notable trend toward cooler conditions for late this week through the coming weekend as a broad trough develops over the Glakes and Eastern U.S. with several smaller scale shortwaves moving southeast within the northern branch of the upper jet.

The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the positive tilt upper trough (and cold 700 mb temps falling to around -4C) will likely support scattered-numerous, mainly diurnal showers Friday through Sunday. A low-topped tsra cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon/early evening.

GEFS mean 850 mb temps slip to between +2 and +4C (or about -1 sigma) Friday night through Saturday, before rebounding a few deg C Sunday into Monday. Mean 925 mb temps of just 8-10C later Friday through Sat morning will likely top even cooler LLVL air under cloudy conditions.

This cool airmass (with Canadian origin and trajectory over Lake Erie waters still in the upper 40s to around 50F) will combine with numerous late morning through early evening showers across at least the Central and Northern part of the CWA Friday to likely yield the coolest day we'll see til this Autumn with high temps staying in the U40s in some spots across the Northern Mtns. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common heading southeast from the Allegheny Front.

Temps will still be 2-5 deg F below normal over the upcoming weekend with mins at night near to a few deg F above normal due to varying amounts of clouds and at least a light breeze, which should limit any potential for frost to the patchy variety and confine it to the Northern Mountains Sat, Sun and Mon mornings.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Conditions remain mainly VFR for much of the central PA airspace this Monday evening. Only reductions attm are from showers with a few lightning strikes possible around KAOO for the next hour or two. Another area of showers sliding northeastward from SW PA could clip KJST as well.

Conditions should slip back through MVFR to IFR in central and tonight through the mid morning Tuesday with areas of LIFR in fog and low cigs possible for 2-4 hours centered on daybreak Tuesday across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley.

In contrast, high pressure building into northern PA from the Grt Lks, will push drier air into that part of the state, keeping conditions mainly VFR there through tonight.

A warm front lifts northeast across western and central PA Tuesday afternoon and night, leading to a trend toward increasing areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms and a higher frequency of MVFR and brief IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA.
Scattered evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.

Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.

Thu...Periods of rain/low cigs likely. Scattered afternoon TSRA.

Fri and Sat...Showers with periods of low cigs possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:41 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EDT     2.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:19 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

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