Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Felton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 4:48PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 7:09 AM EST (12:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:40PMMoonset 3:49AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 637 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except around 1 ft or less near the mouth of the susquehanna. A chance of sprinkles this morning. Patchy fog this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt... Increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
ANZ500 637 Am Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will move east of the waters today. High pressure will briefly build in tonight before a more potent cold front will move through the waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong canadian high pressure will build over the waters for the remainder of the work week. Small craft advisories may be required for portions of the waters Wednesday night through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felton , PA
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location: 39.88, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 201152
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
652 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
One strong shot of cold air will cross lake erie today and
generate snow showers and a few heavier squalls. Another cold
front on Wednesday will bring additional snow showers to the
alleghenies and laurels, and then usher in fair weather, but
also record-challenging cold for thanksgiving day. Temperatures
will moderate over the holiday weekend with a new storm system
likely to move into the region for Saturday into Sunday. A brief
period of wintry precipitation is possible Saturday morning.

Near term until 7 pm this evening
Just a flurry or two reaching the ground over the west, now, as
the forcing from a decent trough swings in from the west. The
good push of colder air at the sfc llvls will lag behind by a
few hours. The leading edge of this cold air should touch off
nmrs snow showers moving in from the nw. Have talked this up and
mentioned stronger snow squalls as well, in a long-duration sps
covering the NW few counties.

Prev...

leaf of precip lifting to the east north and out of the area.

Just a few leftover sprinkles or flurries for the next 1-2hrs.

The radar returns over the NW do not seem to be reaching the
ground, with obs pretty foggy, as they have been for a while as
the snow melts. Air temps right around freezing across the
north, but road temps seem just above freezing. We will have to
look out for some slippery spots early this morning in the north
as the air is calm there and mstr very high. May mention this
in an sps later if conditions get a little cooler on the ground.

A little more wind over the south today will likely keep temps
aoa freezing in the valleys, but the hill tops will get below
freezing in the laurels and may not get back above today.

P-type becomes snow just before sunrise, with enough cold air
and tops of clouds well below freezing and no warm layer.

Most interesting troubling part of the forecast for today is the
arrival of arctic air in the nw. As the 8h temps drop from -6c
in the NW to less than -10c later today, a surge of cold air
pushes in around mid-day. The lake temp at erie is still 44f and
this would contribute to CAPE possibly as high as 400 j kg in
our NW counties. This situation is a little concerning as it
looks similar to a snow squall set up where a squall may set up
along the front as it blasts thru. The moisture at the sfc is
already high. Mixing layer on the NAM and hrrr get as deep as
10kft factoring in the lake-induced lift bouancy. Wind at the
top of this layer is only 30kts, but even this could make it
more troublesome than just a burst of snow. Yet another reason
for an sps perhaps? May issue one to highlight the sqw
potential across our NW 3-4 counties. The squall potential
decreases rapidly as the arctic front drops down toward i-80. It
gets later in the day and the lake influence GOES down
considerably.

Max temps will be cooler than Monday in the nw, about the same
in the central, but about 6-8f colder than Mon in the areas se
of blue mtn.

Short term 7 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The sharp change to colder air through the atmosphere will clear
out the air some, despite some melting still expected on wed.

There should be some wind tonight and ESP on wed. The wind gusts
wed pm could get around 30-40mph on the ridges and 20-30mph in
the valleys. Temps slide below freezing everywhere tonight,
dipping near 20 in the nw. They don't recover very well on wed,
with mixing up near 8h and temps there only -8c to -12c. Maxes
will probably hold in the u20s in the NW and l40s in the sern
valleys. The lake fetch is very favorable for our NW co.S on
wed, so some minor 1-2" accumulations are expected there, but
speed shear is very large in the lower atmos. This could make it
difficult for bands to hold together. The short wave passing
overhead early in the day will also be a negative with NVA in
the wake of the strongest part of the trough. But, the mixed
layer is about 5kft on wed, and some les bands showers are
expected.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
The upper level long wave trough will shift steadily east
throughout the week, delivering a glancing chunk of arctic air
for Wednesday night and thanksgiving day. Moderating
temperatures will begin to return before the week is out as
heights aloft start to rebound and the low level flow turns back
around to the south.

With the low level flow turning NW through Wednesday, the usual
areas of the north and west will be favored for scattered
orographic and lake enhanced snow showers. Light accums will
tend to be confined to the area of rte 6 and northward.

Thanksgiving day looks to be quite cold with highs averaging
20-25 deg colder than normal. Some record lows are possible, see
the climo section below. On the positive side it will be sunny
with a light wind.

A new frontal system will begin to affect the area next
weekend. The GFS is fastest showing rain over the region by mid
day Saturday while the GEFS and ECMWF are a little slower with
the progression of rain into the area. Depending on the timing,
it could be cold enough at the surface to start off as freezing
rain given all models showing temperatures aloft well above
freezing.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
09z tafs sent. Main thing was to adjust some for fog. Some
sites are improving now. Still expect a wide range in
conditions this morning, given the moist air over the snow
pack.

Later this morning, a few snow showers will be possible, as
the leading edge of the colder air works into the area.

Improving conditions later this afternoon, as drier air works
in.

Another round of snow showers possible on Wednesday, mainly
across the northwest, given the southward push of cold and
dry air. Directional wind shear and lack of real deep cold
air will limit the response off the great lakes.

Looking atVFR conditions with lots of Sun on thanksgiving
and Friday.

Outlook
Wed... Becoming windy. Snow showers possible NW mtns.

Thu-fri... No sig wx expected.

Sat... Wintry mix poss early, then restrictions in mainly rain.

Climate
Record-challenging cold is forecast for thanksgiving day. Both
record low-maximum (daytime) and record low minimum (nighttime)
temperatures are in jeopardy.

Record low-max (11 22)
-------------------------
williamsport: 30 in 2000
harrisburg: 31 in 1989
altoona: 27 in 2008
state college: 25 in 1956
bradford: 20 in 2008
record low-min (11 22)
-------------------------
williamsport: 13 in 2014
harrisburg: 16 in 1964
altoona: 13 in 1964
state college: 12 in 1984
bradford: 6 in 2008

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo
short term... Dangelo
long term... La corte gartner
aviation... Martin
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi39 min N 4.1 G 7 50°F 50°F1011.9 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi39 min SSW 1 G 1.9 44°F 46°F1012.2 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi39 min WNW 5.1 G 6 49°F 1012.1 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi39 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 48°F 1012.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi39 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9 47°F 47°F1012.6 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi16 minNNW 34.00 miFog/Mist41°F39°F93%1013.3 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA21 mi16 minW 95.00 miFog/Mist43°F39°F89%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N3E43E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmNW3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE5S5CalmSE5S5SE4SE3SE3E3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW5W5W9W6W6W6W6W5W3CalmCalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Tue -- 03:15 AM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:12 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.10.80.70.81.21.72.12.221.71.30.90.50.20.10.20.71.42.12.52.62.42.1

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
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Tue -- 01:47 AM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:47 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:44 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:45 PM EST     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.60.60.71.11.41.71.81.71.41.10.70.30.10.10.30.71.31.82.12.221.81.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.