Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 12:11 AM   Moonset 9:00 AM

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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 734 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening - .
Tonight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming nw late. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Thu - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sat - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ500 734 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
dry conditions and very warm temperatures will continue today with high pressure nearby. A cold front crosses the waters Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure briefly returns Thursday before another front crosses the local waters over the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed on Friday.

FXUS61 KCTP 300053 AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 853 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
-Well above average temperatures will persist this week with highs in the 70s and 80s; near-record highs possible today.

-Cold fronts Tuesday and Friday-Saturday will be accompanied by up to a several hour period of showers and isolated thunderstorms. There is potential for brief heavy downpours with the storms.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Satellite loop at 23Z shows collapsing cumulus across most of Central PA, as sunset nears. However, most near term model guidance continues to support the chance of an isolated shower across the central mountains overnight in association with falling heights/moistening boundary layer ahead of a weak mid level vort max lifting up the Appalachians. This feature and any potential showers should have lifted north of the NY border by dawn.

For most of the area, expect mostly clear skies overnight.
However, a back door cold front pushing into Eastern PA and the associated upsloping southeast flow could yield late night stratus over portions of Schuylkill County. After today's near record-breaking temps, decent radiational cooling associated with mostly clear skies and light wind should result in overnight min temps near 60F.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The focus on Tuesday will be on a weakening upper level shortwave over the Midwest, which will push across the region Tuesday night. Modest height falls, combined with a plume of +2-3SD PWATs along the attendant low level jet, should support a round of showers and possible tsra across most of Central PA.
focused during early afternoon over the NW Mtns, late afternoon over the central counties, and during the evening over the Lower Susq Valley.

Tall, skinny cape in the 500-1000 J/kg range, combined with high pwats, support some locally heavy downpours. The 12Z HRRR supports isolated amounts to around 1.5 inches over the northeast portion of the CWA Given the low FFG values, can't rule out minor flooding in a few spots. Relatively modest instability/shear profiles indicate the threat of any severe weather is low.

Increasing cloud cover and showers should result in a cooler Tuesday for much of the area, especially over the NW Mtns where thick cloud cover will arrive early. Partly sunny skies, 850mb temps around 14C and a late day arrival of any showers should allow readings to reach the mid 80s over the Lower Susq Valley.

Diminishing showers are expected from west to east Tuesday night, as the shortwave traverses the state. Latest guidance points to fair weather for most if not all of the forecast area Wednesday, as surface ridging and much drier air work into the state behind the exiting shortwave. Mixing down forecast 850mb temps of around 11C yields expected highs in the 70s Wednesday.
We have leaned toward the lower NBM10pct dewpoints Wed afternoon based on dry air above a weak inversion in the model soundings.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Dry conditions are expected Wed night, as an upper-level ridge takes hold over the region.

Model solutions have started to latch onto a stronger upper- level ridge solution, providing fair weather on Thursday and into the first half Friday.

A low-pressure stationed over the Great Lakes will bring about the next sfc cold front across central PA later on Friday and throughout the day on Saturday. There is fairly good agreement with deterministic model guidance in regards to precipitation associated with the frontal passage, although timing remains the biggest uncertainty at this time. The timing is likely to have a big impact on observed temperatures on Saturday. In the warmer scenario, a slower frontal passage would allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s areawide. A faster arrival of precipitation and clouds could keep temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Have opted for a middle of the road scenario at this point with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

After the frontal passage Saturday, the upper pattern trends more zonal supporting seasonable temperatures with occasional chances for rain for the first full week of May.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Latest sfc analysis shows a sea-breeze boundary moving across nrn MD and far srn PA. Wind is going light. A congested patch of cu is developing VCTY JST and AOO. Many meso models pop isold SHRA this evening and slide them to the NE into UNV and IPT. The coverage of these potetial SHRA will be <30pct, but it is still worth a VCSH mention. CAPE should not be sufficient to allow for deep convection/TS. Wherever a SHRA can pass over an airfield, they will have a good potential to develop some fog, but prob of IFR overnight is less than 10pct at any airfield. We will take IPT and UNV into MVFR vsby, though, as they should clear out and have the higher chance of getting wet. The lack of wind will also a plus for fog.

Weak troughing over the central mtns in the morning, and a cold front will be approaching from the west. However, the front will take much of the day to cross the Central PA, and may not quite clear LNS before sunset/00Z. The moisture feed is not great, and the best instability will be over the NErn third of the state. Have mentioned TS (PROB30) for almost all terminals for a few hours, though due to the frontal forcing and PWAT values around 1.5" as the front passes.

After the front passes, there will be lower clouds hanging out for many hours post-frontal passage, and these will linger all night in the western mtns (JST/BFD). These should diminish on Wed AM. Most of Wed will be VFR.

Outlook...

Wed...Early AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Thu...No sig wx expected.

Fri...Evening showers/cig reductions possible.

Sat...Widespread SHRA/TSRA. IFR poss.

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations today (Monday):

SITE 2024 OBS PRVS RECORD Altoona 86F 83F (1956)
Bradford 82F 76F (1984)
Williamsport 89F 86F (1942/1974)

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Port Deposit
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Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:04 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:49 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland, Tide feet

Havre de Grace
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Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:11 AM EDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:52 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2), Tide feet

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