Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Felton, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:32 AM EDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 11:46PMMoonset 8:46AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1036 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through tonight. A warm front will approach the waters late tonight before passing through Thursday and a cold front will pass through the waters Thursday night. The cold front will stall out nearby for the rest of the weekend into early next week. A small craft advisory will be needed for the waters Friday, and possibly into Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Felton , PA
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location: 39.88, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 230348
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
1148 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will drift off the mid atlantic coast
this evening. Low pressure lifting northeast across the great
lakes on Thursday will drag a strong cold front across
pennsylvania late Thursday. Cooler and dry weather will prevail
on Friday. The holiday weekend will bring warmer temperatures,
higher humidity and a renewed chance for showers and storms at
times.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Main weather issue tonight will be a southwesterly low level
jet and associated plume of anomalous pwats pushing into the
region from the west. Radar loop at 02z shows a broken line of
showers and a few lightning strikes along this feature across
eastern ohio into northwest pa. Latest operational model runs
and earlier ensemble guidance support a decent chance of showers
tonight, especially over northern pa, as the low level jet
presses east. Models do indicate some elevated instability later
tonight, as axis of low level jet arrives, so will maintain a
slight chance of thunder.

Mostly cloudy skies, a light southerly breeze and low level
moisture advection all point toward much a much milder night
than last night. Nbm min temperatures are mostly in the mid to
upper 50s.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Expect a lull in the convection early Thursday, as remnants
over low level jet exit southeast pa. Focus then shifts toward
potential severe weather ahead of potent shortwave and cold
front approaching from the grt lks. Partly sunny skies are
expected to result in moderate instability by afternoon in the
warm sector over central pa, while somewhat more stable air
hangs on east of advancing warm front over eastern pa.

The synoptic scale atmospheric signatures are favorable for
severe weather, including a relatively deep upper trough and
surface low over the grt lks and a strong, moist low level jet
maximum over pa. Damaging wind gusts appear the primary threat,
given the 50-60kt 700mb wind fields in the latest model output.

Strong 0-6km shear is supportive of supercells and the
combination of low LCL and high 0-1km shear is indicative of a
tornado threat, especially in the vicinity of surface warm front
over the eastern part of the forecast area.

The latest cams indicate the evolving severe weather threat
could begin as early as midday over the northwest mountains,
then propagate into the rest of the forecast area during the
afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Weighted the fcst to what we had at first with minor
adjustments to grids, then went across the grids again after
looking at the 12z ec.

Main changes then was to up the pops Saturday night into Sunday.

I did lower pops some more for Monday into tue. Wed is a mix of
the superblend and some minor adjustments.

Flow pattern remains abnormally fast and active.

Temperatures for the most part will be warmer than normal, but
not that abnormal for the first big holiday weekend of the warm
season.

Aviation 04z Thursday through Monday
WidespreadVFR can be expected overnight, with scattered
restrictions possible with a dying area of showers and
thunderstorms that will traverse the area overnight.

Enhanced weather impacts expected on Thursday from mid-
afternoon through the evening hours as strong to severe
thunderstorms impact the region.

Outlook
Thu...VFR into the afternoon, then strong thunderstorms
developing mid-afternoon lasting into Thu night.

Fri... Ceiling restrictions poss NW early, then mainlyVFR.

Sat... Restrictions in vicinity of showers thunderstorms. Tstms
more numerous north, scattered south.

Sun... Restrictions possible near scattered tstms, mainly west.

Monday... Still a chance of showers and storms.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
None.

Synopsis... La corte martin
near term... Fitzgerald
short term... Fitzgerald martin
long term... Martin
aviation... La corte gartner


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi39 min SW 2.9 G 6 64°F 69°F1023.2 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 45 mi39 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 70°F1024 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 46 mi39 min SW 5.1 G 6 64°F 1023.6 hPa
FSNM2 46 mi39 min SSW 6 G 11 64°F 1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi40 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds62°F46°F58%1022.8 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA21 mi40 minS 510.00 miFair63°F46°F56%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW3CalmE3SE4SW5SW75W63433CalmSE5S4S44
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NW8--NW10NW11NW7NW8W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSW4SW5SW4NW4SW4S6S5SW6SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
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Thu -- 02:29 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:46 PM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:06 PM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.22.221.71.41.10.90.811.52.12.83.23.33.22.92.521.61.31.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland (2)
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:53 PM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.81.91.71.41.10.80.70.70.91.31.82.32.72.82.72.421.61.310.80.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.