Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:24PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 2:16 AM CDT (07:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:01AMMoonset 8:23PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, IL
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location: 39.88, -90.05     debug


Area Discussion for - Central Illinois, IL
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Fxus63 kilx 290452
afdilx
area forecast discussion
national weather service lincoln il
1152 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Update
Issued at 855 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
quiet weather is expected across central and southeast illinois
for the rest of the night. High pressure centered over eastern
canada will continue to drift east, while an approaching storm
system over the southern plains will begin to lift northeast.

Easterly winds will increase in the tightening pressure gradient
between these two systems, but little other change to the sensible
is expected overnight. Low-level clouds should remain locked in
place, and temperatures should bottom out in the 40s which is a
little above normal for late march. Going forecast is in good
shape and only a few tweaks are needed to the hourly trends.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 251 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
19z/2pm surface analysis shows ridge of high pressure extending from
hudson bay southward into the mississippi river valley... While a
1000mb low organizes over eastern new mexico. Despite the presence
of prevailing high pressure, boundary layer moisture remains trapped
beneath a subsidence inversion... Which has resulted in an overcast
day across much of central and southeast illinois. Forecast
soundings show the low-level moisture remaining in place tonight, so
am expecting cloudy skies to continue through Wednesday morning.

As the high shifts off to the east and the new mexico low begins
lifting to the northeast, increasing warm advection will lead to the
development of scattered light showers across the western half of
the kilx CWA on Wednesday. The 12z NAM shows showers coming into
the illinois river valley between 15z and 18z... Then spreading
eastward to the indiana border during the afternoon. Given the
amount of dry low-level inflow expected from the e/se, think this is
a bit too aggressive. Prefer the wrf-arw and wrf-nmm which show the
light precip spreading eastward to about the i-55 corridor before
dissipating further eastward. As a result, will keep east-central
illinois dry through Wednesday afternoon... With chance to likely
pops confined to locations along/west of i-55.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 251 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
the upper level trough over the southwest u.S. Today will be over
the central plains by Wednesday evening with a low level jet
strengthening in the lower mississippi region helping to enhance
severe thunderstorms ahead the cold front. This activity could push
into southern portions of the central il forecast area late in the
night. Thursday... The trough will continue eastward... With multiple
embedded disturbances progged by latest models providing some
uncertainty in timing and location of re-development of
thunderstorms Thursday. Nevertheless, models have shifted the
overall track slightly northward over the past day... And several
hundred to over 1000 j/kg MLCAPE and strong bulk shear continue to
indicate a severe thunderstorm potential as far north as i-72. Spc
day 1 and day 2 outlooks outline these areas for a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms from early Thursday morning into Thursday
evening as a result. Instability looks to shift east of the area by
midnight Thursday night ending the thunderstorm threat, then the
upper low should be east of illinois by Friday morning with
lingering showers tapering off west to east during the day.

Surface and upper level ridging will move over the area Friday night
through Saturday night providing for dry conditions... Then the next
potential weather system will start to develop for Sunday into
Monday. Overall this system looks to track more through the southern
states, but multiple embedded shortwaves could produce showers and
possibly thunderstorms across portions of the forecast area Sunday
through Tuesday.

Temperatures will take a dip slightly below normal for portions of
the area Thursday into Saturday... But back to above normal with
highs in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1152 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
predominantly MVFR conditions expected across the central illinois
terminals through the 06z TAF valid time. Some lowering of cigs
likely overnight with nocturnal cooling, and patchy ifr conditions
can't be ruled out later tonight or early morning. A few showers
are possible from around kspi-kpia westward after 15-18z. Showers
to spread eastward after 00z as a storm system approaches from
the sw. Thunderstorm potential looks minimal through 06z at most
terminals, however have included vcts at kspi after 03z as
thunderstorm potential increases from the sw.

Ilx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Update... Bak
short term... Barnes
long term... 37
aviation... 37


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Municipal Airport, IL12 mi22 minE 710.00 miOvercast46°F42°F85%1021 hPa
Springfield - Abraham Lincoln Capital Airport, IL20 mi25 minENE 118.00 miOvercast45°F39°F83%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from IJX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW3NW3N5CalmNW4CalmNE6NE4E7NE6NE6NE4NE8NE10NE8NE8NE6NE7NE6NE8E13NE10E7
1 day agoCalmCalmNE3NE3NE5NE4NE6NE6NE10NE9NE8N7N8NE8NE6NE6NW11N5N6N8N5N5N5N8
2 days agoS10
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W8W5W5W3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Central Illinois, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Central Illinois, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.