Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Leisuree, NJ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:42PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 4:11 PM EST (21:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:06PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ451 Expires:201902210815;;245720 Fzus51 Kphi 202032 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 332 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz450-451-210815- Coastal Waters From Sandy Hook To Manasquan Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Manasquan Inlet To Little Egg Inlet Nj Out 20 Nm- 332 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less early this evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 332 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure over the mid-atlantic lifts along the coast this evening. It then passes east of new jersey and towards the gulf of maine by Thursday morning before finally departing late in the day. High pressure builds in from the north and west to close out the work week, then moves offshore on Saturday. Low pressure lifts through the region over the weekend, followed by high pressure for the start of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Leisuree, NJ
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location: 39.9, -74.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 202039
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
339 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over the mid-atlantic lifts along the coast this
evening. It then passes east of new jersey and towards the gulf
of maine by Thursday morning before finally departing late in
the day. High pressure builds in from the north and west to
close out the work week, then moves offshore on Saturday. Low
pressure lifts through the region over the weekend, followed by
high pressure for the start of the new week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Changes with this forecast: have cancelled the winter weather
advisory for sussex and kent co in de, and queen anne's, talbot,
and caroline counties in md. The winter storm warning from
cecil and kent co in md has been extended through 00z. Though
they may not get much additional snow, temperatures will stay
below freezing for the next few hours, so light freezing rain
and sleet is possible.

The lull of relatively light precipitation continues. As of 3
pm, we had reports of mixing as far north as burlington and
ocean counties in nj. For areas generally near and south of
dover, de, temperatures are above freezing and precipitation is
mostly rain. The changeover to a wintry mix will continue to go
further north. The change over to rain will likely come 2 to 4
hours after the change over to mix.

Snow and ice amounts: new snow amounts of up to 2 inches (on
top of what has already fallen so far today) is possible. The
bigger concern going forward will be ice amounts, which could be
as much as a tenth of an inch for berks county, and possibly
some locations in the lehigh valley.

Impacts: with the changeover occuring over the next few hours
for several locations, the evening commute has the potential to
be very hazardous as ice on top of snow could result in very
slippery conditions. Please allow extra time to reach your
destination, and reduce speed. Roads that appear wet could be
icy.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
No major changes with the forecast on Thursday, we are
expecting quieter weather. The last of any rain will be ending
Thursday morning along a weak cold front behind the main low in
delmarva. Clouds should be clearing through the day. Breezy
conditions are also possible behind the cold front, with gusts
of 20 to 25 mph possible. Highs will range from the mid 40s over
the southern poconos to the low to mid 50s for areas near and
s E of the i-95 corridor.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
High pressure over the midwest will move into the great lakes
on Friday, then moves into northern new york state Friday night
before moving offshore on Saturday. Meanwhile, h5 trough over
the southern rockies will eject into the southern plains, and
surface low pressure develops out ahead of that trough near the
lower mississippi valley. On Saturday, the primary low lifts
into the great lakes as a secondary low forms over the mid-
atlantic. This new low passes east of new jersey and towards
cape cod Saturday night, then lifts towards the canadian
maritimes on Sunday.

Temperatures will be at or just above normal for the end of the
week and into the start of the weekend, and with no significant
arctic air in place, not expecting much in the way of ptype
issues overall. However, if precip begins early Saturday
morning, there could be a brief period of a wintry mix at the
onset, as temperatures should be below freezing Friday night. By
late Saturday morning, temperatures rise above freezing, and
will remain warm through the precip.

Abundant surface moisture will stream into the northeast and
mid-atlantic, and pwats will be upwards of 1.5". Could have
periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, mainly Saturday
night, with the passage of the low.

Conditions dry out on Sunday afternoon, then a tight westerly
pressure gradient develops with gusty winds possible.

On Monday, surface high pressure builds in from the west, and a
tight northwest pressure gradient develops Monday afternoon
between the high and the departing low. Although it will be dry,
the main story on Monday will be the potential for strong and
damaging winds. Winds at about 500 mb will be around 125 kt, and
a strong LLJ of 55-65 kt with good mixing up to 850 mb. Although
it is a bit far out, this does indicate the potential for
damaging winds Monday afternoon. For now, will carry NW winds
20-30 mph with 30-50 mph gusts, and mention the potential for
gusts as high as 60 mph in the hwo.

High pressure will spread east through the middle of next week.

There is the potential for another storm during the mid-week
period.

After an unseasonably warm Sunday with highs in the 60s,
possibly approaching 70 in parts of delmarva, temperatures
return to at or just below seasonal levels Monday through
wedensday.

Aviation 20z Wednesday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of this afternoon... Ifr or near-ifr with snow and mixed
precip across the most terminals. Precip will change to all rain
kmiv, kacy and kilg by early evening. East to southeast winds 5
to 10 knots.

Tonight... Ifr across most terminals most of the time. Mixed
precip across the northern terminals will change to rain later
this evening. Areas of fog expected. Mostly light E SE winds
most of the night. Vsbys somewhat variable in steady rains and
fog. Mostly 1-2sm.

Thursday... Ifr MVFR early then improvement back toVFR as drier
air arrives. Change back toVFR mostly 13 14z for the western
terminals and 15 17z for kacy kmiv.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...VFR. West to northwest
winds 10 kt or less, becoming NE around 5 kt Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday... Sub-vfr conditions in brief wintry
mix Saturday morning, then rain. SE winds less than 10 kt,
becoming west 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts on Sunday.

Monday...VFR. NW winds 20-30 kt with 30-50 kt gusts possible.

Marine
Winds and seas will continue to increase, with small craft
advisory conditions likely on the coastal waters for most if not
all of tonight and Thursday.

On the delaware bay, winds and waves should stay below sca
criteria.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Marginal SCA conditions possible.

Friday through Friday night... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Saturday through Saturday night... Sub-sca conditions. Vsby
restrictions in rain and possible fog.

Sunday... Winds become west 20-30 kt with 35-40 kt gusts.

Monday... Nw winds 25-30 kt with 35-50 kt gusts possible.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for paz105.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for paz070-
071-104-106.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Thursday for paz054-055-
061-062.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for paz060-
101>103.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for njz008>010-
012>015.

Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
njz016>027.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est Thursday for njz001-007.

De... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for dez001.

Md... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for mdz008-
012.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for anz450>455.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Johnson
short term... Johnson
long term... Mps
aviation... Mps o'hara
marine... Johnson mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BDRN4 - 8539094 - Burlington, Delaware River, NJ 15 mi95 min ENE 5.1 G 6 29°F 39°F1029.7 hPa
NBLP1 - 8548989 - Newbold, PA 17 mi53 min E 4.1 G 7 30°F 38°F1030.3 hPa
BDSP1 21 mi59 min 29°F 41°F1029.6 hPa
PHBP1 - 8545240 - Philadelphia, PA 24 mi59 min 30°F 38°F1029.1 hPa
JCRN4 - Jacques Cousteau Reserve, NJ 28 mi101 min E 9.9 32°F 1029 hPa
MRCP1 - 8540433 - Marcus Hook, PA 38 mi59 min 30°F 40°F1029 hPa
ACYN4 - 8534720 - Atlantic City, NJ 40 mi59 min 33°F 38°F1029.1 hPa

Wind History for Burlington, Delaware River, NJ
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Holly, South Jersey Regional Airport, NJ8 mi77 minENE 31.25 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist30°F28°F92%1029.5 hPa
Mcguire Air Force Base, NJ10 mi75 minE 51.63 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F29°F92%1028.9 hPa
Philadelphia, Northeast Philadelphia Airport, PA21 mi77 minENE 50.75 miLight Snow31°F26°F82%1030.3 hPa
Lakehurst Naval Air Station, NJ22 mi2.2 hrsESE 6 miOvercast0°F0°F%1030.5 hPa
Miller Air Park, NJ22 mi75 minSSE 71.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%1030.6 hPa

Wind History from VAY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5E3E4E3CalmCalmE3NE5E4NE3NE4
1 day agoW14
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NW7N9N10N7NW9N7N11N4Calm3NW10
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2 days agoS44SE4SE3CalmN3SE7N4E3CalmE3N4N4CalmCalmCalmW5W7W8W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Wildwood Crest, ocean pier, New Jersey
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Wildwood Crest
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Wed -- 01:36 AM EST     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:38 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:44 AM EST     5.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:13 PM EST     -1.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:40 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:06 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 PM EST     5.25 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.9-1-0.11.43.14.65.55.753.72.20.7-0.6-1.2-10.21.83.44.65.2542.6

Tide / Current Tables for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Current
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Philadelphia
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Wed -- 02:21 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:25 AM EST     -2.27 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:26 AM EST     2.32 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:39 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     -2.25 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:59 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.70.5-1-1.9-2.2-2.2-1.9-1.6-0.51.22.22.21.80.9-0.5-1.6-2.1-2.3-2.2-2-1.501.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Philadelphia, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.