Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Windsor, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:39 PM EST (18:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:12PMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 1236 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..NE winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft... Except flat near the mouth of the susquehanna. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain or snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1236 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure developing along the carolina coast today will strengthen into a gale, then move towards long island tonight. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley for the weekend. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Windsor , PA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 39.9, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kctp 151831
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
131 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A significant, widespread winter storm system will affect us
through early Friday. The occluded front will slide north
through the area early tonight followed by a strong cold front
later tonight. Blustery conditions and much below normal
temperatures will continue into early next week.

Near term through tonight
While snow totals are currently on track, a nudge was made to
up snow totals over the SE with changeover happening a little
slower than expected upstream over md. Totals remain unchanged
elsewhere. Sleet not so prevalent at this point. Newest href and
nam runs support the more-snowy scenario we have been playing
these last 12+ hrs. Hrrr soundings are keeping it snow into the
middle of the aftn in lns, and late aftn at mdt.

Prev...

first widespread winter storm to affect the area...

winter storm warnings for most and advisories for the rest
remain in effect. Most of the susq valley and poconos are in the
warning due to expected timing and impacts. This is the first
storm of the season and travel may be greatly impacted. The
expected precip type is a heavy snow (with some sleet) at first
and then some freezing rain or drizzle before a last gasp as
predominantly snow late tonight and early Friday.

Deep upper low over the central us will slide east and interact
with very thick feed of moisture. The main low will develop on
the atlantic coast near chs early today, and move up to acy by
midnight tonight. This classic set up for snow in central pa is
going to be odd for the fact that the sea surface temps are
likely much above normal and warm air comes in well-aloft across
the SE half of our cwa. Temps on mdl soundings dance around the
0c line, and precip type is going to be crazy complicated.

Most model guidance and high res operational and ensemble
version have trended higher with snowfall sleet amounts across
much of the forecast area from the impending winter storms.

Collaboration with wpc and adjacent regional offices also noted
the potential for locally over 1 foot of snow across portions of
north central pa should very little sleet mix in.

The biggest quandary with this storm has been (and still is)
the depth and nwwd extent of the above freezing layer of wet
bulb temps.

Multi-model MAX wet bulb temps aloft indicate little chance for
more than an occasional mixing of sleet with the persistent
moderate to heavy snow later this morning through this
afternoon. Even across our far southern and western zones at
21z, MAX tw aloft is only around plus 1 deg c (which indicates a
change to mainly sleet in those areas.

The big surge in warmer, above freezing air aloft (mainly in
the 850 to 750 mb layer) comes late today through this evening
across the SE 1 2 of the cwa, with MAX tws aloft averaging 3-5c
across the lower susq valley and western poconos using a blend
of the nam, rap hrrr. The allegheny plateau NW of a kipt to kunv
line appears to stay below freezing at all levels through the
duration of the storm, indicating the potential for snow amounts
over 1 foot (though we'll take a measured approach for now and
increase storm total accums to a solid 8-10 inches there.

Aside from the typical focus on the storm total amounts of snow
and ice, the biggest impact and main emphasis with this storm
should be the heavy rates at which the snow and sleet will fall
during the peak commuting hours later this morning (sw half of
pa, through early this evening hours over the NE half of the
state). These heavy snow sleet rates in excess of 1 inch per
hour will make it difficult for road crews to keep main
arteries and especially secondary roads clear.

After a 2 to 4 hour period of heavy snow sleet, the deepening
layer of above freezing temps aloft and a change to a potpourri
of precip types will limit snow sleet accums to a greater
degree over adams lancaster york counties today and tonight.

Short term Friday
A change to zr and sleet is likely for at least a short time
over much of the area to the SE of a kaoo to kseg and kavp line
this evening, with a hodge podge of precip types just to the nw
of that line, with all snow continuing to the NW of a kfig, kpsb
and kipt line. The most likely location to have a sig ice build
up is the laurel mtns and perhaps along the i-81 corridor.

The least likely is the NRN mtns. The far sern counties will
probably warm up just enough to make rain for the night.

The upper low passes right overhead tonight. This will likely
result in a deformation band on the northern and western side
of the upper low. The band may drop the heaviest snow of the
event over the NW half of the area later tonight. This feature
will likely end up changing the precip back to a few to several
hour period of snow before ending in the far se.

Gusty west to wnw winds up to around 40 mph will occur later
Friday morning through dusk in the tight p-gradient as the storm
departs quickly to the NE off the new england coast. Quickly
lowering subsidence inversion base and warm mean cloud layer
temps of just around -5c will limit and les and orographically
generated snow showers, and accums to light amounts of a
coating to one inch acrs the northern and western mtns

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Broad upper level long-wave trough will continue over the east
with some fast moving disturbances keeping chances for snow
showers across the north along with lake enhancement into early
next week. High pressure will build in mid week with cold and
dry weather region-wide.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Snow occurring over all sites with -pl mixing in at kjst. Expect
this to continue through daylight hours based on current radar
trends.

Ultimately some warmer air will mix in with -pl and -fzra
generally after 00z. Some -fzdz is possible where the
precipitation intensity diminishes. An area of snow under the
upper low pressure will swing through overnight with a return to
snow showers and MVFR conditions. Precip will end during the
morning hours on Friday with MVFR toVFR conditions but gusty
winds from the west.

Outlook
Sat-sun... MainlyVFR. MVFR with snow showers nw.

Mon... No sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter storm warning until 8 am est Friday for paz005-006-
010>012-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063-064.

Winter storm warning until 6 am est Friday for paz017>019-
024>028-033>035.

Winter weather advisory until 8 am est Friday for paz004-065-
066.

Synopsis... Dangelo lambert
near term... Dangelo lambert
short term... Dangelo lambert
long term... Lambert gartner
aviation... La corte tyburski


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 44 mi39 min E 13 G 20 33°F 1023.3 hPa (-5.8)
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 46 mi39 min ENE 11 G 16 31°F 48°F1025.5 hPa (-4.6)
FSNM2 47 mi39 min NE 19 G 23 32°F 1022.2 hPa (-6.6)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 47 mi39 min NE 16 G 20 32°F 1023.4 hPa (-5.9)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
N6
G9
N7
N6
NE6
G9
NE6
NE8
G11
E12
NE8
G11
E10
G14
E10
G13
E10
G14
E8
G11
E9
G12
E7
E7
G10
E7
G10
E9
E9
G12
E6
G9
E7
G10
E8
G12
E10
G13
E10
G17
E13
G20
1 day
ago
NW8
G12
NW9
G16
NW5
G9
NW4
G7
NW3
G9
N7
G12
NW7
G10
NW4
G7
NW7
G11
N9
G13
N10
G18
N8
G13
N11
NW8
G13
N10
G13
NW6
G9
NW4
G8
NW4
G8
N7
G11
NW9
G13
N14
G19
N5
G9
N7
G13
N10
G15
2 days
ago
S4
G7
S5
S4
G8
S4
G7
SE6
S4
G8
SE5
G8
NE2
NE5
NE5
NE7
NE6
E6
G9
NE8
NE8
G12
N5
N7
G11
N8
G11
N8
G12
N7
G10
N8
G14
N7
G11
N7
G13
NW6
G9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA18 mi47 minENE 90.25 miHeavy Snow Freezing Fog28°F27°F96%1025.6 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA19 mi47 minENE 120.25 miHeavy Snow Freezing Fog30°F27°F88%1026.2 hPa

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrNW10N8NW6N5N4NE3CalmCalmNE3NE5E5E6E7E7E5E7E8E5E7E8NE6NE3E6E9
1 day agoNW9NW10NW7NW5NW9NW5W3W6NW9NW11
G20
NW11--NW7--------NW6NW6NW10NW11NW8W7NW8
2 days agoS5SE6S3SE3SE4--SE3SE5E4NE3NE5NE3NE4NE4N6NW6NW4NW5CalmNW10NW5NW9NW9NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:01 PM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 PM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.11.62.22.62.62.52.321.61.310.80.70.91.21.61.81.81.61.31.10.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:34 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:48 PM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.41.8221.91.61.20.90.50.30.30.40.71.11.41.71.71.61.310.70.50.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for State College, PA (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.