Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Yoe, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday November 15, 2018 4:13 AM EST (09:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:13PMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ530 Chesapeake Bay North Of Pooles Island- 339 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of rain or snow or sleet. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt... Increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft. Rain or sleet or snow or freezing rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming nw late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain or snow.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 339 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure developing along the carolina coast today will strengthen into a gale, then move towards long island tonight. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley for the weekend. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yoe , PA
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location: 39.92, -76.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 150613
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
113 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A significant winter storm system will move into pa for Thursday
and early Friday. Expect a variety of wintry precipitation to
fall, with the heaviest snow and sleet over the northern and
central mountains. Freezing rain may build a glaze of ice over
much of the area as well. Blustery and much below normal
temperatures will continue into early next week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Watching for any major changes to the going forecast late
tonight in the calm before the storm, and not seeing any
compelling reason for change at this time. Thick mid to high
clouds associated with impressive baroclinic leaf from the
developing winter storm over tennessee river and lower ohio
valley continue to stream overhead and will lower and thicken in
the pre dawn hours. Mins should drop into the teens in the
north and 20s elsewhere. The first radar returns will likely be
over the SW a few hours before daybreak, but likely remain aloft
until it can moisten things up in the lower layers. Onset of
precip should be right about sunrise on mount davis.

No changes at this time to overall forecast package and amounts.

A look at model forecast soundings during the day Thursday
indicate saturated isothermal profiles hugging the zero line for
several thousand feet for much of the afternoon and evening
across the central mountains. The mix with sleet is the wildcard
for amounts, and any waggle or reduction to the warm layer will
result in more or less sleet, and less or more snow
respectively. Amounts look good for now, as latest prob
exceedences for higher amounts have actually dropped by 5
percent since this afternoon. Confidence for mostly snow is
highest across the north where less QPF is expected. Potpourri
of precip types will greatly limit snow sleet accums over
adams lancaster york counties Thursday and Thursday night.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
First widespread winter storm to affect the area...

winter storm warnings for most and advisories for the rest
remain in effect. Most of the susq valley and poconos are in the
warning due to expected timing and impacts. This is the first
storm of the season and travel may be greatly impacted. The
expected precip type is a snow- sleet mix at first and then some
freezing rain or drizzle before a last gasp as predominantly
snow. The heaviest of the mix of precipitation looks like it
will occur over those susq valley counties during the middle of
the day and early evening. This would impact the rush hour and
lots of major transportation interstate corridors.

Deep upper low over the central us will slide east and interact
with very thick feed of moisture. The main low will develop on
the atlantic coast near chs overnight, and move up to acy by
midnight Thursday night. This classic set up for snow in central
pa is going to be odd for the fact that the sea surface temps
are likely much above normal and warm air comes in well-aloft.

Temps on mdl soundings dance around the 0c line, and precip type
is going to be crazy complicated.

Timing for the initial burst of warm advection trowal-associated
precip will be during the morning. Likely a west to east band of
heavy snow and or sleet will slide steadily northward thru the
cwa. Expect the precip to begin along the md border around or
just after sunrise, then get into the NRN mtns around or just
after noon.

A change to zr is likely for at least a short time over much of
the area. The most likely location to have a sig ice build up
is the laurel mtns. The least likely is the NRN mtns. The sern
counties will probably warm up just enough to make rain for the
night.

The upper low passes right overhead thurs night. This will
likely result in a deformation band on the western side to the
low, oriented N to S and moving to the east. The band may drop
the heaviest snow of the event over the NW half of the area
later thurs night. This feature may end up changing the precip
back to snow before ending in the far se.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Broad upper level long-wave trough will continue over the east
with some fast moving disturbances keeping chances for snow
showers across the north along with lake enhancement into early
next week. High pressure will build in mid week with cold and
dry weather region-wide.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
High pressure over the area tonight will keep conditionsVFR
ongoing through 12z as light winds turn from NE to SE and
increase to around 10 mph.

A significant winter storm will affect the area Thursday into
Thursday night. Snow or a wintry mix of snow sleet freezing rain
will reach jst-aoo shortly after sunrise and continue to spread
northward reaching ipt-bfd by early afternoon.

Expect rapid deterioration to ifr conditions as the
precipitation overspreads the region, continuing into at least
Friday morning.

A prolonged period of freezing rain drizzle is possible from
over southern terminals after 21z.

Outlook
Fri... Snow wintry mix ending west to east early. Then scattered
snow showers MVFR ifr ceilings afternoon into the overnight
over the west.

Sat-sun... MainlyVFR. MVFR with snow showers nw.

Mon... No sig wx.

Ctp watches warnings advisories
Winter storm warning from 10 am this morning to 8 am est
Friday for paz005-006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.

Winter storm warning from 8 am this morning to 6 am est Friday
for paz017>019-025>028.

Winter storm warning from 6 am this morning to 6 am est Friday
for paz024-033>035.

Winter storm warning from 8 am this morning to 8 am est Friday
for paz036-056-057-059-063.

Winter weather advisory from 8 am this morning to 8 am est
Friday for paz064>066.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 am est
Friday for paz004.

Synopsis... Dangelo
near term... Dangelo devoir
short term... Dangelo
long term... Lambert gartner
aviation... La corte


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 45 mi44 min E 8 G 12 36°F 53°F1033.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 49 mi44 min ENE 8.9 G 11 36°F 1033.7 hPa
FSNM2 49 mi50 min NE 9.9 G 13 36°F 1033 hPa
CHCM2 - 8573927 - Chesapeake City, MD 53 mi44 min NE 5.1 G 8 34°F 47°F1034.7 hPa

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
York, York Airport, PA11 mi21 minENE 510.00 miFair31°F19°F61%1034.2 hPa
Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport, PA21 mi18 minE 410.00 miOvercast32°F18°F56%1034.6 hPa
Harrisburg, Capital City Airport, PA24 mi18 minE 610.00 miFair33°F17°F52%1034.8 hPa
Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA24 mi21 minENE 410.00 miFair33°F19°F58%1034.4 hPa

Wind History from THV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NW6NW6NW10NW11NW8W7NW8NW10N8NW6N5N4NE3CalmCalmNE3NE5E5E6E7E7E5
1 day agoNW6NW4NW5CalmNW10NW5NW9NW9NW6NW9NW10NW7NW5NW9NW5W3W6NW9NW11
G20
NW11--NW7----
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmE4CalmS6S5SE6S3SE3SE4--SE3SE5E4NE3NE5NE3NE4NE4N6

Tide / Current Tables for Port Deposit, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Port Deposit
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:01 PM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 PM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.11.62.22.62.62.52.321.61.310.80.70.91.21.61.81.81.61.31.10.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Havre de Grace, Susquehanna River, Maryland
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Havre de Grace
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:34 AM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:46 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:48 PM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:48 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.8221.91.61.20.90.50.30.30.40.71.11.41.71.71.61.310.70.50.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for State College, PA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.