Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chambersburg, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:34PM Thursday March 30, 2017 6:47 AM EDT (10:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:49AMMoonset 9:42PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 432 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Rest of the overnight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Today..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day...then rain likely through the night.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through tonight. Low pressure will approach the waters Friday before passing through Friday evening. High pressure will build over the waters again by Sunday. Low pressure may impact the waters early next week. Small craft advisories are possible Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chambersburg , PA
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location: 39.93, -77.66     debug


Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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Fxus61 kctp 301014
afdctp
area forecast discussion
national weather service state college pa
614 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
An active southern jet stream is expected over the next week
with a series of significant systems likely to affect pa. Low
pressure over the mississippi valley will move east over the
next 48 hours, tracking just south of pennsylvania late Friday.

Another low pressure system, following the same track, will
likely affect pennsylvania late Monday into Tuesday. A third low
is likely to track west of pa through the great lakes during
the later half of next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
An increasingly moist southwest flow aloft will work into
western pa today, overrunning the cool/dry air mass in place.

Gefs pwats rise to between 1-2sd above climo by late today.

Based on this scenario, have raised pops considerably across the
region later today. Latest sref/gefs, as well as 00z ec, GFS and
canadian, all support categorical pops across the western half
of the state, with less chance of showers across the east.

Increasing fgen forcing noted in the models by late morning
over the western counties, as nose of low level jet works toward
the area from the ohio valley. Thus, have ramped up the chance
of showers beginning late morning into the afternoon.

An examination of model soundings shows a persistent shallow
layer of sub-freezing air around 900mb, suggesting that sleet
pellets could mix with the rain over the central and northern
mountains. Surface temps should be safely above freezing, so no
travel impacts expected.

Have trended MAX temps downward slightly today, based on an
earlier arrival of precip and thick overcast. NAM has a good
track record with temps in cold air damming scenarios this
winter and have thus leaned toward its cooler numbers today,
with highs ranging from the upper 30s over the higher terrain of
the alleghenies, to the upper 40s over the southern valleys.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Friday night/
A soaking rain appears a certainty for central pa later tonight
into Friday, as closed upper low tracks east from the ohio
valley. Associated anomalous southerly low level jet and plume
of +2sd pwats overrunning dome of low level cold air provided
by blocking high north of new eng will result copious rainfall
amounts across the state. Blend of model QPF ranging from around
1 inch in the north to close to 2 inches across the southeast
counties. Can't rule out some elevated tsra across the southeast
counties late Friday, as surge of high pwats and marginally
unstable air are drawn northward ahead of upper low.

This rainfall will add a healthy spike to the flow and levels
on smaller streams and creeks across the region with broader
moderate rises on rivers, but no significant threat for
flooding, as headwater flash flood guidance is averaging 2-2.5
inches for a 12 and 24 hour period respectively.

Will continue to lean toward the cooler NAM guidance through
Friday, a strategy which has worked well with cold air damming
scenarios over the last several months. Readings will likely
remain stuck in the 40s Friday.

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/
Any early showers should give way to improving conditions
Saturday, as low exits the coast and a drier northwest flow
takes hold. Some breaks in the cloud cover should occur
Saturday afternoon, ESP across the lower susq valley where
drying downslope flow will be enhanced. MAX temps Saturday
should return to near seasonal norms.

Fair and mild weather appears likely Sunday, as high pressure
ridge builds across the state. However, the next potent and
moisture laden southern stream wave heads our way for Mon night
and Tuesday, bringing a likelihood of a widespread rain. A brief
break is likely around next Wednesday, then another round of
significant rainfall appears possible by the later half of next
week when all med range guidance tracks a closed low northeast
through the grt lks.

Aviation /10z Thursday through Monday/
No big changes for the 09z tafs.

Some mid level clouds early today withVFR conditions.

Expect a few showers across the west later today. Perhaps
some snow or sleet for a brief time, but ground temperatures
too warm for any accumulation.

Widespread rain tonight into Friday night will result
in poor conditions for aviation, as low pressure tracks
northeast across the great lakes.

Improving conditions for the weekend, as high pressure
builds eastward from the northern plains.

Outlook...

sat: sub-vfr restrictions early; then gradually improving
conditions into Sat night.

Sun-mon:VFR/no sig wx.

Ctp watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Synopsis... Fitzgerald
near term... Fitzgerald
short term... Fitzgerald
long term... Fitzgerald
aviation... Martin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 73 mi48 min ENE 8.9 G 13 43°F 48°F1024.2 hPa (+1.4)
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 78 mi48 min NE 9.9 G 11 42°F 1024.4 hPa (+1.3)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 81 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 8 47°F 53°F1023.9 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Baltimore, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hagerstown, Washington County Regional Airport, MD16 mi55 minENE 610.00 miFair40°F28°F65%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from HGR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N7N9N12N10N10NW9N11
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1 day agoN3N5NE7N5E3CalmW5SW4CalmNW4NE4N8N5NW4N3N6NW6NW6N4NW9N3NW5N9N9
2 days agoW3N3CalmN3CalmW3W4CalmSE4SW6S5S6S10S4SE4N4N5CalmNW6N5N7NW8E6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:32 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.1000.20.50.91.21.41.41.310.70.40.2000.20.50.811.11

Tide / Current Tables for Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland
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Middle Branch
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:30 AM EDT     1.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:32 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:59 PM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.100.10.20.50.91.21.41.41.310.70.40.2000.20.50.811.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for State College, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.