Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chambersburg, PA
May 18, 2024 10:10 AM EDT (14:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:50 AM Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:45 PM Moonset 2:27 AM |
ANZ538 Patapsco River Including Baltimore Harbor- 733 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Tonight - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon - E winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon night - S winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Tue - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers through the night.
ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 946 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Showers and lightning storms are forecast across the local waters this afternoon and evening along a pinned sea breeze boundary. A front will then approach the local waters Sunday, bringing increased chances for rain and lightning storms, as well as the threat for isolated to scattered strong storms Sunday into Monday. Low pressure will remain over the western atlantic through midweek which will keep daily shower and storm chances in the forecast over the local atlantic waters.
Gulf stream hazards - None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 17th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, may 17th.
46 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 35 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 20 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 181131 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 731 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
The combination of a slow-moving and decaying frontal boundary over Western Pennsylvania and an area of low pressure moving across Southern Virginia will bring numerous showers to main Central and Southern portions of Pennsylvania today.
Low pressure passing well to the south of Pennsylvania will bring additional showers to primarily Central and Southern portions of Pennsylvania through this afternoon.
High pressure will build into the region on Sunday accompanied by generally rain-free conditions that are expected to persist through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A weak ridge of high pressure extending from the New England states south along the Mid Atlantic Coast was helping to maintain dry conditions across the eastern third of the state early this morning, while several areas of showers were drifting northeast across the Central and Western Mtns of the state.
Showers will spread into the region over, and to the east of the Susq Valley as the morning progresses related to enhanced UVVEL within the thermally indirect branch/beneath the left exit region of a 110 kt upper level jet approaching from the south.
The associated periods of steadiest rain will last through the late morning hours across the SE half of the CWA, while the showers closer to the weakening front in the NW will be much intermittent and widely scattered.
It appears that deep moisture up through the mid levels of the atmosphere will persist for the bulk of the region today through early tonight.
Additional rainfall of 3 or 4 tenths of an inch is likely across the Scent Mtns and Lower Susq Valley while lighter amounts of perhaps around another 0.10 of an inch will fall over the NW Mtns.
High temps will be a notable amount below normal in the shallow cold air damming regime across Central and Eastern PA with the mercury reaching the low to mid 60s throughout the Central and SE Valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s across the far NW zones.
Lows in the 55-60F range are +5-15F above mid May climo with the larger departures across the western and northern Alleghenies.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Plenty of clouds will linger tonight and any breaks that develop after midnight will likely lead to locally dense fog as sfc dewpoints will stay moderately high and in the mid 50s in most locations. Low temps will occupy a tight range between 52 (Northern and Western Mtns) and 58 deg F throughout the Lower Susquehanna Valley and points just to the west.
Sunday is looking increasingly nice with high pressure eventually allowing a good deal of sunshine throughout and salvaging the second half of the weekend. Decreasing deep layer moisture and a northerly wind component along with ridging at the sfc and aloft should help highs recover nicely with temps around 80F fcst in the NW Alleghenies and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
We are likely to see some areas of fog again Sunday night, and temps will continue to trend warmer with dry weather persisting into early next week with highs on Monday reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A dry start to the extended period will be likely with high pressure ridging building over the mid-atlantic region and a deep surface low parked over the central plains. High pressure and dry air will stay in place through Tuesday before the upper level trough pushes them both out by Wednesday afternoon. 850mb temps of near 16C along with surface warm air advection suggest high temperatures could reach the mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
By the middle of next week, upper troughing will move across Pennsylvania and support a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, there remains plenty of model uncertainty about the timing of a cold front. The mean timing is Wednesday afternoon, but individual models bring precipitation as early as Tuesday evening and as a late as Thursday morning.
If the front moves through Wednesday afternoon or evening, it could produce the first threat for severe weather in some time given the aforementioned WAA bringing greater instability.
After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. A chance of showers remains in place through the end of the week despite zonal flow aloft providing little in the way of synoptic forcing. The next chance for a widespread soaking rain will come during the weekend with a center of low pressure developing across the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At 1120z, IFR persist over the northwestern highlands (BFD, south to KFIG and KDUJ) overnight, with borderline IFR/MVFR cigs expected over the central mtns (AOO, UNV). Interestingly, JST and AOO are in what we see as brief period of VFR, thanks to compensating subsidence, warming and drying within the left rear quad of the 110 kt upper level jetlet. They should fall back into MVFR to IFR later this morning and continue through this afternoon. IPT has dropped to low- end MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley remains low- end VFR (~4 kft cigs).
Conditions will deteriorate across the Lower Susq Valley this morning as cigs continue to drop and an approx 3 hour period of light to moderate rain moves in with 2-3 tenths additional QPF expected. Look for fairly steady state conds elsewhere.
Patchy light rain will persist into the afternoon southeast of the Allegheny Front, along with low-end MVFR cigs. For the western highlands, cigs should improve to MVFR (perhaps even low-end VFR) this afternoon although scattered rain showers are possible.
Outlook...
Sun...Morning low cigs/fog possible. Becoming VFR by afternoon.
Mon...Patchy AM fog possible. Otherwise, becoming VFR.
Tue...Predominantly VFR, w/ no sig wx expected.
Wed...Sct to widespread SHRA/TSRA return.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 731 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
The combination of a slow-moving and decaying frontal boundary over Western Pennsylvania and an area of low pressure moving across Southern Virginia will bring numerous showers to main Central and Southern portions of Pennsylvania today.
Low pressure passing well to the south of Pennsylvania will bring additional showers to primarily Central and Southern portions of Pennsylvania through this afternoon.
High pressure will build into the region on Sunday accompanied by generally rain-free conditions that are expected to persist through the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A weak ridge of high pressure extending from the New England states south along the Mid Atlantic Coast was helping to maintain dry conditions across the eastern third of the state early this morning, while several areas of showers were drifting northeast across the Central and Western Mtns of the state.
Showers will spread into the region over, and to the east of the Susq Valley as the morning progresses related to enhanced UVVEL within the thermally indirect branch/beneath the left exit region of a 110 kt upper level jet approaching from the south.
The associated periods of steadiest rain will last through the late morning hours across the SE half of the CWA, while the showers closer to the weakening front in the NW will be much intermittent and widely scattered.
It appears that deep moisture up through the mid levels of the atmosphere will persist for the bulk of the region today through early tonight.
Additional rainfall of 3 or 4 tenths of an inch is likely across the Scent Mtns and Lower Susq Valley while lighter amounts of perhaps around another 0.10 of an inch will fall over the NW Mtns.
High temps will be a notable amount below normal in the shallow cold air damming regime across Central and Eastern PA with the mercury reaching the low to mid 60s throughout the Central and SE Valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s across the far NW zones.
Lows in the 55-60F range are +5-15F above mid May climo with the larger departures across the western and northern Alleghenies.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Plenty of clouds will linger tonight and any breaks that develop after midnight will likely lead to locally dense fog as sfc dewpoints will stay moderately high and in the mid 50s in most locations. Low temps will occupy a tight range between 52 (Northern and Western Mtns) and 58 deg F throughout the Lower Susquehanna Valley and points just to the west.
Sunday is looking increasingly nice with high pressure eventually allowing a good deal of sunshine throughout and salvaging the second half of the weekend. Decreasing deep layer moisture and a northerly wind component along with ridging at the sfc and aloft should help highs recover nicely with temps around 80F fcst in the NW Alleghenies and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
We are likely to see some areas of fog again Sunday night, and temps will continue to trend warmer with dry weather persisting into early next week with highs on Monday reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A dry start to the extended period will be likely with high pressure ridging building over the mid-atlantic region and a deep surface low parked over the central plains. High pressure and dry air will stay in place through Tuesday before the upper level trough pushes them both out by Wednesday afternoon. 850mb temps of near 16C along with surface warm air advection suggest high temperatures could reach the mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
By the middle of next week, upper troughing will move across Pennsylvania and support a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, there remains plenty of model uncertainty about the timing of a cold front. The mean timing is Wednesday afternoon, but individual models bring precipitation as early as Tuesday evening and as a late as Thursday morning.
If the front moves through Wednesday afternoon or evening, it could produce the first threat for severe weather in some time given the aforementioned WAA bringing greater instability.
After the front moves through, considerable uncertainty exists in terms of how much and how frequent rain will be. A chance of showers remains in place through the end of the week despite zonal flow aloft providing little in the way of synoptic forcing. The next chance for a widespread soaking rain will come during the weekend with a center of low pressure developing across the Ohio Valley by Friday afternoon.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At 1120z, IFR persist over the northwestern highlands (BFD, south to KFIG and KDUJ) overnight, with borderline IFR/MVFR cigs expected over the central mtns (AOO, UNV). Interestingly, JST and AOO are in what we see as brief period of VFR, thanks to compensating subsidence, warming and drying within the left rear quad of the 110 kt upper level jetlet. They should fall back into MVFR to IFR later this morning and continue through this afternoon. IPT has dropped to low- end MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley remains low- end VFR (~4 kft cigs).
Conditions will deteriorate across the Lower Susq Valley this morning as cigs continue to drop and an approx 3 hour period of light to moderate rain moves in with 2-3 tenths additional QPF expected. Look for fairly steady state conds elsewhere.
Patchy light rain will persist into the afternoon southeast of the Allegheny Front, along with low-end MVFR cigs. For the western highlands, cigs should improve to MVFR (perhaps even low-end VFR) this afternoon although scattered rain showers are possible.
Outlook...
Sun...Morning low cigs/fog possible. Becoming VFR by afternoon.
Mon...Patchy AM fog possible. Otherwise, becoming VFR.
Tue...Predominantly VFR, w/ no sig wx expected.
Wed...Sct to widespread SHRA/TSRA return.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHGR HAGERSTOWN RGNLRICHARD A HENSON FLD,MD | 16 sm | 17 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.97 |
Middle Branch
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:23 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT 1.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:04 AM EDT 0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT 1.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM EDT 0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:23 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:19 AM EDT 1.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:04 AM EDT 0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT 1.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM EDT 0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.6 |
| 1 am |
| 0.8 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Middle Branch, Baltimore Harbor, Patapsco River, Maryland, Tide feet
Sterling, VA,
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